956
FXUS63 KSGF 151805
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
105 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is now in effect for the entire area through
  Friday. Highs in the 90s with heat index values of 100-105 can
  be expected. Overnight lows will only drop into the 70s.
  Several daily records may be tied or broken.

- There is a 20-40% chance of scattered thunderstorms this
  afternoon into tonight, north of I-44. There is a Marginal (1
  of 5) Risk of severe weather for locations north of Highway
  54 with the main risks being damaging winds, locally heavy
  rainfall, and lightning.

- Isolated afternoon/evening storms will be possible again on
  Wednesday (10-20%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a strong upper level high over
the Tennessee River Valley. Our area is on the northwest
periphery of the ridge but also just far enough away from
shortwave energy across Kansas-Nebraska-Iowa. A surface front
was nearly stationary from Topeka to St Joseph with a weak pre
frontal trough just southeast of Kansas City. An 850mb jet has
allowed for surface wind gusts around 20-25mph early this
afternoon. Hot temps were being observed with most locations
already in the middle 90s and heat index values approaching 100.

Heat: Temps will continue to heat up through the afternoon as
only scattered cumulus will develop east of Highway 65. While
some mixing will occur, dew points will likely remain in the 60s
to around 70. High temps will likely reach the middle to upper
90s in most areas and will challenge records. Heat index values
will remain around 100. Temps tonight will be slow to drop with
lows in the 70s likely. The Heat Risk tool is showing areas of
major to extreme heat risk for the area. The Heat Advisory not
only remains in effect today but has also been extended through
Friday (more on that further below).

Rain Chances Today/Tonight: The front will slowly slide
southeast towards Kansas City this afternoon. The pre frontal
trough will likely slide into the far northern CWA as well. Both
of these features will provide forcing for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Latest REFS guidance suggests that the pre
frontal trough may allow for a few storms to form up around Lake
of the Ozarks after 4pm however coverage will be low. The
stronger front looks to remain northwest of the area therefore
the higher rain chances will stay just outside of the area. If
a storm can become organized (shear is fairly weak this far
south though) then brief wind gusts of 50-60 mph would occur.
The marginal severe risk from SPC is still aligned along and
north of Highway 54. It will likely be a struggle to see many
storms south of Highway 54. The low level jet will continue to
feed storm development across northern Missouri overnight and
may eventually force a boundary into the area for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Afternoon Storm Chances Wednesday: The upper level ridge will
slowly begin to retrograde towards the area which equates to
rising mid level heights. This is not helpful for storm
development. However if that weak boundary/wind shift can make
it into the area then it may be enough to force some scattered
showers and storms in the afternoon. The latest REFS shows a
consensus of storms from the Branson area to Springfield then up
towards Rolla (roughly where that boundary may end up or wash
out). Currently thinking only a handful of storms and have kept
pops at or below 20 percent. The lack of lift is the main
limiting factor at this time for higher pops. The strongest
storms on Wednesday could produce wind gusts up to 50mph given
increasing PW values around 1.75in. Many areas will remain dry
however.

Heat Advisory Extended: Ensembles suggest that the upper high
will slowly retrograde west mid to late week. This will keep
850mb temps in the 20-24C range which will continue to keep
surface temperatures 15+ degrees above average. Daily highs in
the middle to upper 90s are likely with lows in the 70s. Some
afternoon mixing will occur however daily heat index values
around 100 will continue. The Heat Risk tool continues to
support the potential for major to extreme heat impacts. This is
likely due to the prolonged heat aspect and the climatological
aspect. All this to say that the Heat Advisory has been extended
through 8pm Friday for the entire area.

Pattern Change Late Weekend? Ensembles then suggest that
stronger shortwave energy will push into the Rockies late in the
weekend. This will allow for decreasing mid level heights and
temps along with a frontal passage at some point. The timing of
this front remains in question however there is cooler air
behind it. Currently precip chances are 30-50% Sunday night into
Monday with that frontal passage. NBM temp spreads do increase
during this timeframe however even the higher percentiles would
indicate highs in the 80s which would be welcome.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. Scattered mid level cumulus around 5-8kft will occur
this afternoon and evening. There is a 10-20 percent chance for
a shower or storm at SGF this afternoon/evening however its too
low to include in the TAF at this time. Additional low rain
chances exist Wednesday afternoon. Surface winds will remain
out of the southwest today with gusts of 20-25kts at times. A
shift to the south/southeast will briefly occur Wednesday
morning.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026


Record High Temperatures:

September 15:
KSGF: 98/1893
KJLN: 98/1956
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 98/1954

September 16:
KSGF: 95/1980
KJLN: 98/1954
KVIH: 96/1954
KUNO: 99/1980

September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
KVIH: 97/1953
KUNO: 97/1953

September 18:
KSGF: 95/2019
KJLN: 97/2022
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972

September 19:
KSGF: 96/1954
KJLN: 99/2024
KUNO: 97/1954

September 20:
KUNO: 97/1954


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 15:
KSGF: 74/1936

September 16:
KSGF: 73/1927

September 17:
KSGF: 73/1978

September 18:
KSGF: 74/1931

September 19:
KSGF: 73/1931

September 20:
KSGF: 74/2018


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield