052
FXUS63 KSGF 150833
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
333 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances today will mainly be confined
  to southwestern portions of the forecast area (15-50%).

- On and off chances (15-50%) for showers and thunderstorms
  into Monday as a weak slow-moving system traverses the area.
  Isolated and localized instances of gusty winds and flooding
  are possible through Monday.

- Slight (15% Chance) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday
  night across central Missouri, then again Wednesday for much
  of our forecast area.

- Humid conditions are expected through the coming week.
  Signals point to temperatures nearing 90 F towards the end of
  the week. Therefore, we may see heat index values in the
  mid-90s to around 100 at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A rather muggy airmass remains in place across the region this
morning with temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s across
the region. With dewpoints in the middle 60s to lower 70s as
well, RH values were in to 90-100% range.

An upper level are of low pressure was making its was south
across the the plains with an area of showers and scattered
storms moving slowly across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma.
Synoptic models move the upper low south but have it stalling by
mid day and lifting into the Ozarks region this afternoon and
evening. This will provide a lifting mechanism for shower and
storm development and anther day of rain potential. Brief heavy
rainfall would be the main concern with any storms as a result
of the 1.50 to 1.85 inch precipitable water values in place
across the region, which are forecast to remain in place into
Monday night.

With the Ozarks on the eastern periphery of an upper level
ridge over the plains any shortwave, MCV or wiggle in the upper
level flow pattern may be capable of kicking off a shower or
storm. The chances for any severe weather will be pretty low
however as instability looks lacking. With the proximity of the
aforementioned upper level ridge, temperatures tonight will
again be in the middle to upper 60s with highs Monday in the
middle 80s with additional chances for scattered showers and
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The upper level ridge will ultimately move over the Ozarks
region by Tuesday into Wednesday as a surface low develops and
deepens in the plains. This low and attendant front are
forecast to move across the plains and impact the region late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The SPC currently has a
Marginal risk for severe storms, mainly north of I44 with this
front as it moves into the region. The very moist airmass will
allow for rather good instability in advance of the front. With
the frontal convergence and lift, this would produce the
potential for initially supercell storms with large hail the
main concerns. As the storm progress, they may merge into a
line allowing for a wind threat. Finally the storms may develop
into and MCS which would roll through the region Wednesday
night.

Upper level ridging and high pressure will follow for the end of
the week with temperatures climbing into the the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees for the later half of the week and into next
weekend. While this pattern will signal a dry period, it will
also produce heat index values from the middle 90s to around
100 degrees with some lingering moisture across the region
combining with the elevated mercury.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An area of showers and storms was slowly moving into far
southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri early this
morning. Showers and storms will impact the KJLN area through
the morning as the area of storms moves slowly to the east. By
late morning into the early afternoon, the area of storms will
move east far enough to impact the remaining regional terminals.

Storms through the period will be scattered in nature and are
not expect to be persistent or widespread. Otherwise where
storms do occur, expect impacts to ceilings and visibilities.
Where storms are not occurring, flight condition`s will be
generally MVFR due to ceilings.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch