534
FXUS63 KSGF 032256
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
456 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light patchy fog potential again tonight into Sunday morning.
  With low temperatures below freezing, any dense patches of fog
  could freeze on elevated surfaces.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected Sunday
  through much of next week.

- A pattern change brings our next chance of widespread
  precipitation during the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts a weak mid-level shortwave
clearing southeast of the area. This wave led to a blanket of
low stratus and light patchy fog this morning . Visible
satellite imagery shows these clouds clearing quickly now from
north to south, likely out of our area by 6-8 PM. The clouds
along with northerly winds behind the shortwave have led to
cooler temperatures today with highs on track to be in the
middle 30s to lower 40s. Otherwise, the longwave pattern depicts
large-scale ridging building in from the west with northwesterly
flow currently overhead.


Light patchy fog potential again tonight into Sunday morning:

Clear skies in the wake of the mid-level shortwave will lead to
cooler temperatures tonight in the 20s. Additionally, calm winds
may allow for some light radiation fog to develop tonight across
the area. The main uncertainty in fog potential is the amount
of lingering moisture available to condense into fog. Current
forecasts have dewpoint depressions >3 F in much of the area
which owes credence to the HREF not being overly excited with
anything below 5 miles of visibility (only a 5-10% chance around
the Springfield area). That said, analyzing RAP forecast
soundings, forecast lows will "crossover" the max dewpoint of
today. That paired with MRi values above 0.1 support at least
some light ground fog. Would love to apply some persistence to
the forecast from seeing light patchy fog the past few nights,
but that fog was a result of stratus build-down and advection
whereas this will be radiational.

If any dense patches of fog do develop, low temperatures in the
20s will support fog to freeze to elevated surfaces, which could
create some slick spots. At the moment, though, confidence is
very low in dense enough for for impactful freezing, so trends
will continue to be monitored through the evening for any
significant updates.


Dry conditions and above normal temperatures begin Sunday:

The ridge axis will shift eastward into our area Sunday,
switching winds to southerly and begin our trend back to above
normal temperatures. Warm air advection and ridging will allow
highs to range from the mid-40s to the mid-50s Sunday. The
warmest temperatures are forecast to be along and west of
Highway 65. Lows will then be warmer in the 30s to low 40s with
the warmer temperatures confined to the same locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Dry conditions and well above normal temperatures next week:

The ridge axis is progged to be directly overhead Monday,
bringing well above normal high temperatures in the lower to
middle 60s and lows in the middle to upper 40s. The NBM
deterministic forecast has been slowly increasing highs despite
very small spreads in temperatures (for example, Springfield
only ranges from 65 to 68 F each day through Thursday).

Global ensembles flatten out the ridge a bit Tuesday and
Wednesday as a small shortwave trough traverses the northern
Plains. Despite this, warm air advection into the resulting
surface low across the northern Plains will keep our
temperatures warm through Wednesday with continued highs in the
middle 60s and lows in the 40s.


Next chance of widespread precip arrives middle of next week:

A brief(?) pattern change is then forecast to arrive as
troughing develops across the west CONUS. Ensemble clusters are
coming into better agreement for a shortwave to lift through the
region Wednesday night through Friday. This initial shortwave
looks to bring widespread rain to portions of the area.
Clustering models based on 500mb heights from the LREF has all
clusters pretty much with the same mean and interquartile spread
of rainfall amounts (anywhere from 0.1" to 1.00" with only
slight differences in timing). Clustering the models based on
QPF reveals our wet and dry scenarios as 42% of models range
from 0 to 0.25" (a flatter and more east trough progression
leads to this scenario). The other 58% of models range from 0.5"
to 1.25", but have some positional differences in the main axis
of rain. For example, some members have much of the rain east of
our area. Lastly, 11% of models show the high-end ranging from 1
to 2 inches (a more amplified and west trough progression leads
to this scenario). With all that said, rain does look probably
sometime between Wednesday night and Friday (~60-80% chance),
but there are still timing, position, and strength uncertainties
that lead to a 30-50% chance throughout the Wednesday night
through Friday period, with large rainfall amount spreads.

Some global deterministic models hint at potentially two rounds
of precipitation. For example, the GFS and ECMWF depict the main
round of rain occurring Thursday, then a round of light rain
and/or snow Friday as the main trough moves through.


Some uncertainty in the pattern that follows:

Initially, physical global model ensembles were signaling that
southwesterly flow and west CONUS troughing would continue for a
few days after this first system, which would bring chances for
multiple days to see rain. This could have been an artifact of
differences in timing among the members, stretching mean
southwesterly flow over the course of several days. That said,
AI global ensembles seem to be elite weather-knowers as they
first predicted the troughing to quickly move west to east, and
now physical ensembles are seeming to follow suit. Therefore,
it`s starting to look likely (60-80% chance) that only one
system moves through, with northwesterly flow and drier and
cooler weather following into the weekend and beyond.

Nevertheless, one cluster still shows 25% of models showing
another shortwave lifting out of Mexico, which could bring more
precipitation to the area in the extended forecast. Trends will
continue to be monitored moving forward. For now, the forecast
calls for temperatures cooling into the 50s Friday, and the 40s
Saturday, with <15% chances of rain those days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Airport observations paired with satellite imagery show a
stubborn IFR stratus deck just exiting the SGF area. Trends in
satellite imagery suggest clouds should start clearing at BBG
within the first few hours of the TAF period. Then, calm and
variable winds are expected until 14-16Z when winds settle out
of the southeast and increase to 8-12 kts.

There is another chance for renewed light mist around 3-6 miles
in visibility between 06-15Z. Earlier guidance was not too keen
on the potential, but latest forecast soundings is starting to
increase probabilities, especially at SGF and BBG. Have included
a TEMPO group at this time. Given low temperatures forecast
below freezing, if mist/fog becomes dense enough, some freezing
on elevated surfaces could occur.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price