054
FXUS63 KSGF 271905
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
205 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated chances (less than 30%) for isolated showers linger
  this afternoon through tonight. Accumulations will be light.
  Lightning potential is low (less than 20%).

- Above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with highs
  into the upper 80s for portions of the area.

- A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (50-80%
  chances) is expected midweek into the weekend. There will be
  the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this
  system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The synoptic pattern over the CONUS is quite dynamic, with a digging
trough off the west coast, a nor`easter on the east coast, and weak
ridging in between. The Ozarks have been placed along the eastern
edge of the ridge for several days, allowing cresting shortwave
energy to force showers and thunderstorms at times. Light showers
remain in portions of central and southern Missouri as of noon.
Radar estimates indicate 0.5-2 inches of rain since midnight in some
areas of eastern Kansas, though observations indicate this may be an
overestimate. Pittsburg, KS is reporting 0.95", Baxter Springs is
reporting 0.75", and the Joplin airport received 0.62". The
Springfield airport recorded 0.13, though areas in southwest
Springfield reported several tenths more.

This shower activity will generally diminish over the next few
hours, though very isolated rain chances exist through the evening
into tonight. It will remain a cloudy, dreary day today with highs
most likely topping out in the 70s, potentially near 80 in some
areas if clouds break enough along the Kansas and Arkansas borders.

Lows tonight will range form the mid 60s in the west to the upper
50s in south-central Missouri. Monday still looks dry as the western
low pushes the apex of the ridge through Missouri. We`ll see the sun
again Monday as skies clear nicely by the afternoon. Ensembles are
in very good agreement that highs Monday will be around 80, with
only a 3 degree interquartile range in the NBM (78 to 81) for
Springfield. This is also a couple of degrees cooler compared to
previous runs. Monday night will be clearer over south-central MO,
allowing for lows to dip down into the mid-50s. Cloudier areas to
the west will remain in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Models are slowing down the incoming system with each run. They now
depict the low digging farther south over the desert southwest
before ejecting across the southern Plains. This allows the ridge of
high pressure to remain over southern Missouri longer, staving off
precipitation chances and warming things up a bit above normal.
We`re looking at highs in the 80s Tuesday, with low 80s more
plausible in the low-lying areas of south-central Missouri and mid
to upper 80s possible along the Plateau and higher elevations along
the Arkansas border. With the later timing of the system, Tuesday
now looks dry under the direct impact of the ridge apex.
Wednesday is looking like the warmest day of the week, with
highs soaring into the upper 80s. This will be about ten degrees
higher than normal, and only a few degrees shy of records.
Tuesday and Wednesday will feel quite a bit hotter than the
temperatures we have had lately.

There are still minor timing differences among the models on the
arrival of the system. Early models bring the initial front to
eastern Arkansas Wednesday morning while other models hold off until
Wednesday night. The deterministic NBM favors the early solution,
bringing PoPs up to 30% along and west of Hwy 65 by midday
Wednesday, moving east through the area and bringing 50-80% PoPs by
Thursday morning. Roughly Hwy 65 and west is included in a Slight
risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC, with a moderate risk for
the remainder of the CWA. The entire area is covered by a Marginal
ERO for Thursday.

The plume of Gulf moisture that this system pushes into the Ozarks
is truly impressive. The max PW value recorded for SGF on Sep 30 is
1.71, and some portions of the area could have PW values up to 2.25
inches Wednesday, especially in extreme southwest Missouri. The
NAEFS indicate that the forecast values are over 3 stdev above
average.

There is also considerable disagreement in the progressiveness of
the system. Comparing the GFS and the ECMWF, for example, the GFS
depicts rain coming to an end Friday night as moisture is
sufficiently shoved off to the south. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
shows the moisture plume remaining up into the southern Plains with
supportive low pressure behind it (remnant Polo energy?). The NBM
does agree with remnant rain lasting through Friday night and
Saturday, though with much lower probabilities. There are a lot of
questions regarding how the incoming low will interact with Polo,
how they behave as they eject out over the Plains, and how their
absorption into the midlatitude jet stream will affect their impact
to our area. Keep up with forecasts through this week to get the
latest on this system`s behavior.

Below are the NBM probabilities for at least x inches over the
72 hours ending 7am Saturday (east-west):

1": 60-80%
2": 50-70%
3": 20-50%

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Remnant rain showers from this morning continue to diminish in
central and southern Missouri. Stratus ceilings around the
region lie around 7-10kft. This will stay pretty consistent
throughout the period. Isolated showers may continue into the
evening, but chances are very low, less than 20%. Winds will
remain around or under 5 kts with occasional gusts to 10,
varying from southeast to northeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson