395
FXUS63 KSGF 122302
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
602 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-50% chance for light showers across western Missouri and
  extreme southeast Kansas tonight into Monday. Cloud cover and
  rain will keep highs in the 70s in some areas.

- After Monday, above average high temperatures in the upper
  70s to mid 80s and dry weather forecasted through the end of
  next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Current RAP analysis paired with satellite imagery depicts the
longwave pattern staying largely the same as the forecast
package 24 hours ago. An energetic longwave trough with several
embedded shortwaves are located over the west CONUS, with a
weaker but also meridional shortwave trough over the east coast.
One of the shortwave over the west has lifted north of ND into
Canada, leaving a strong jet across the central and northern
Plains. This has shifted the ridge axis in between the waves
eastward over our area bringing clear skies and highs on track
to reach the upper 70s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle
80s along and west of I-49. Additionally, the deep low pressure
system associated with the shortwave in Canada has tightened the
surface pressure gradient across the Plains, bringing observed
winds up to 10-20 mph across our area with gusts up to 20-25 mph
at times.

Elevated winds and moisture will keep lows mild tonight ranging
from the mid-50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid-60s along and
west of I-49.


20-50% chance for light showers tonight into Monday:

With the shortwave trough lifting north into Canada, the
trailing jet stream will stall in its current position, also
stalling the surface cold front at the leading edge of the jet.
Residual positive vorticity advection atop the front along with
residual frontogenesis should be enough forcing for some light
showers and sprinkles across west MO and extreme southeast KS
late tonight into Monday. The best chances for these are along
and northwest of a line from Neosho to Camdenton, though a few
sprinkles reaching east of that line are certainly possible
(10-20% chances). HREF/SREF/NBM guidance all point to MUCAPE
being below 100 J/kg, with a 70-90% chance of instability being
below 50 J/kg, therefore, thunder is highly unlikely. And if
there is enough instability for convection, the forecasted
profiles do not look tall enough for lightning. With much of the
forcing being weak and synoptic, only light amounts are
forecast, generally between 0.01-0.1".


Some areas to see slightly cooler highs in the 70s Monday:

Because of the widespread mid-level clouds and light rain
showers across the area, those areas mainly northwest of I-44
may see highs in the 70s, some locations as low as the lower
70s. Areas southeast of I-44 will continue to see above normal
temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Above average temperatures and dry weather during the work week:

Height rises will once again take hold of the region as a kidney
bean upper-level high builds in the Gulf States. This will
continue to promote above average high temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s. NBM spreads are much smaller now for this,
showing very high confidence. There are only 5-20% chances for
high temperatures below 80 F for some locations through the
period. To the same point, low temperatures will also be mild
ranging from the middle 50s in the eastern Ozarks, to the upper
50s and lower 60s elsewhere.


Monitoring potential system next weekend:

Global ensembles are still depicting a potent trough traversing
the area next weekend. While clusters still show some
discrepancy on exact timing, a majority consensus is honing in
on a passage sometime Saturday/Saturday night. This system will
bring our next bout of widespread rain chances, currently at
30-50% Friday night through Sunday. Due to timing differences,
chances will likely diminish the other days as they increase on
one day that favors the system passage. For example, if Saturday
night becomes favored, rain chances will likely increase
Saturday, while chances may decrease for Friday/Sunday. The
trough passage will be quick and progressive, so it is unlikely
we will see rain Friday, Saturday, and Sunday like the current
forecast shows.

Additionally, the synoptic pattern depicted by ensembles favors
the potential for severe weather if the trough passage aligns
with peak heating/instability. LREF gives a joint probability
of MUCAPE >500 J/kg and deep layer shear >40 kts (the general
threshold for high-shear, low-CAPE severe weather potential) at
45-65% across the region Saturday. Therefore, we will need to
monitor trends. While there will be small deviations in the
timing of the system, if we were to use the current ensemble
guidance, the trough and associated surface front look to move
through Saturday late morning. This would place a severe weather
risk just west of us Friday, and just east of us Saturday.
Again, details will likely change between now and then, so the
potential for severe weather exists. GEFS and ECMWF AI guidance
continues to support this potential, though chances are low due
to the spatial differences.

What is more certain is that after the trough passage, we will
likely see cooler temperatures, though this is outside our
7-day time range to discuss too much. However, NBM spreads point
to highs in the 70s rather than 80s in the extended range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 602 PM
CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Mid-level cloud cover will increase after 06Z tonight as a cold
front approaches western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Light
showers are likely to develop along this boundary, which may
temporarily bring MVFR conditions to the JLN terminal. There is
a low chance (20%) that a few sprinkles are observed across
central Missouri after 08Z, but confidence in both occurrence
and flight category degradation was too low to include any
mention in the current TAFs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Didio