280
FXUS63 KSGF 221119
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of drizzle and maybe a few showers and thunderstorms
  will be possible at times into the mid-morning hours today,
  mainly along and east of Highway 65.

- Seasonably pleasant and dry conditions with near-normal
  temperatures in the 70s to near 80 degrees continuing through
  the rest of the week.

- 20-40% rain chances return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

An upper-level low is currently located across Iowa early this
morning and will continue to move southeast across the region
today and tonight, moving off to the east on Wednesday. Low-level
moisture and low-level clouds are currently moving south across
the area and will remain in place through midday today. The
clouds will then start to clear this afternoon and evening.
Low-level lift will also move across the area at times during
the rest of the overnight hours into this morning as the upper-
level low moves across the region within the low-level
moisture/clouds. This will result in some periods of drizzle
developing at times into the mid-morning hours, mainly along
and east of Highway 65. Visibility could be reduced at times
within any drizzle that can develop this morning, with
drizzle/patchy fog causing visibility to potentially vary
considerably over short distances and with time.

Additionally, embedded pockets of locally stronger lift will
allow generally drizzle-y and misty conditions to develop into
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in portions of
the eastern Ozarks this morning. These storms are not expected
to be severe, though briefly gusty winds and lightning will be
hazards during the brief lifespan of storms that can form. A
quick 0.1-0.75" of rain will be possible for locations that are
impacted by storms, which will be welcome given the ongoing
drought.

Lows early this morning will remain in the 60s with cloud cover
in place. A cooler air mass will be in place today with highs
ranging from around 70 across central Missouri to the lower 80s
across far southern Missouri. Clear skies and light winds will
occur across the area tonight into Wednesday morning, allowing
lows to cool into the lower to middle 50s across much of the
area. Some patchy fog will be possible tonight into Wednesday
morning across portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Sprawling and persistent high pressure across the Great Lakes
and Quebec will dominate surface conditions through midweek
across the Ozarks, with ridging aloft gradually re-building over
the central Plains through the week. Several weak shortwaves
will push across the Northern Plains over the course of the week
ahead of a parent trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, but
the shortwave energy doesn`t penetrate as far south as our
northwest CWA until Friday, so conditions will remain dry
through most if not all of the work week.

PoPs begin to increase from northwest to southeast on Friday,
with the highest chances (15-30%) generally north of Highway 54.
These PoPs creep southeast through the weekend, with areawide
20-40% PoPs by Sunday. Friday is where models begin to differ
from each other, with uncertainty accumulating in the evolution
of repeated shortwave attempts to flatten the ridge in the
Plains and those waves` interactions with a blocked low that
develops off the eastern seaboard by the end of the week.

Overall message for the long term forecast is a dry and fairly
status quo fall week, with seasonable and consistent temperatures
in the 70s to low 80s during the day and in the 50s overnight
all week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Low-level stratus is across the area to start the TAF period,
with IFR to LIFR ceilings being observed just after 11Z. These
conditions will slowly improve from LIFR to MVFR through the
morning, finally becoming VFR between 17-19Z. Patches of drizzle
are accompanying this stratus deck, and on-and-off drizzle will
be possible at times through the mid-morning hours, causing
visibility reductions in addition to the low ceilings. North to
northeasterly winds will prevail through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise/Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden