491
FXUS63 KSGF 051856
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1256 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle late this evening into Friday.

- Increasing confidence in the potential for areas of frost and
  freeze this weekend. Lows each morning in the mid 20s to mid
  30s.

- Warming trend returns early next week, with a return of
  temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

he shortwave currently over the OK panhandle is expected to
shift southwest of the area this evening, resulting in a few
sprinkles or brief light shower or two over the far southwestern
CWA at worst.

A trough and cold front are passing through the area. Northerly
flow behind the front will bring low level moisture that will
result in cloud cover and drizzle late this evening into Friday.
The drizzle is expected to be most prominent along the higher
terrain of the Ozarks Plateau where northerly winds will lead to
upslope lift. On the flip side, the least coverage/intensity of
drizzle is expected just south of the plateau. Exactly when
drizzle ends is still in question, but think it will wrap up by
early afternoon Friday as low level moisture gets scoured out
some. The cloud cover will take longer to clear, leading to
temperatures Friday being on the cold side of the ensemble
spread. Official forecast calls for highs Friday in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

After a cool day Friday, clouds are expected to clear by Friday
night, allowing for lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Similar
conditions are expected each night through Sunday night.
Frost/freeze conditions are expected across much or all of the
area, with the worst of it being over the typical cold spots in
the eastern CWA. There are models (especially the REFS and RRFS)
showing high clouds moving in Friday night and keeping temps a
few degrees warmer, so that will have to be monitored. Frost/freeze
headlines will be addressed in future shifts if the forecast
stays on track.

The rest of the long term is dry.

Temperatures will trend warmer through the long term, starting
with highs in the 50s. Highs will be closer to normal in the 60s
on Sunday, then upper 60s to around 70 through the rest of the
long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR conditions will persist until low level moisture brings
lowered ceilings and drizzle late this evening into Friday.
Lowest confidence in seeing drizzle is at KBBG due to
downsloping northerly winds, and highest is at KJLN and
especially KSGF.

Expect drizzle to dissipate by mid day Friday as ceilings lift
some, but an inversion will trap moisture and keep MVFR ceilings
around into the afternoon and possibly evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus