909
FXUS63 KSGF 202300
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
  mainly across the eastern Ozarks. Primary hazards are
  localized heavy rainfall and lightning.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for today and Tuesday, with heat
  index values between 100 to 110 degrees. The hottest day
  occurs on Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures mid to late week, with rain chances
  returning late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The heat is on across the region as an upper level ridge remains
over the western two thirds of the CONUS this afternoon. With
southwesterly surface winds bringing warm air and moisture into
the region, temperatures were in the upper 80s to lower 90s
early this afternoon with hit index values from 95 to 105. By
the time the area hits peak heating this afternoon, some
locations will see heat index values from 100 to 110 with light
southwest winds offering little help.

Little in the way of change is expected overnight with lows in
the middle 70s to around 80 degrees, which will offer very
little relief. As a result, the Head Advisory remains in effect
from 1pm today through 7pm Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Global and synoptic models have begun leaning towards a bit
quicker frontal passage with the cold front on Tuesday as a
shortwave over Canada will matriculate east, pulling a cold
front through the Midwest and into Missouri. Despite this,
temperatures remain expected to again climb into the 90s on
Tuesday with additional moisture, allowing heat index values to
once again climb into the 100 to 110 range.

Some models continue to show the cold air behind the front
lagging behind the front/wind shift by several hours. The level
to which the temperatures can climb will depend on the time the
front moves through the area, which currently looks to have
moves earlier into the late morning or around the midday period,
and when the cooler air makes it into the region.

Thus, it may be possible for some areas across extreme
southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas could see heat indices
approaching or even slightly above 110 degrees (warning
criteria) though the potential for this is on the low side. So,
a Heat Advisory remains for the entire area from 1 PM today
through 7 PM Tuesday for afternoon heat indices between 100 and
110 degrees. The NWS HeatRisk product likewise depicts
widespread Moderate to Major values, suggesting those without
effective cooling and hydration measures are likely to face
heat-related impacts.

In addition to the heat, but to a lesser degree, will be the
potential for shower an storm development Tuesday afternoon as
the front moves through. The latest models continue to have
issues with where, when and if convection develops along this
boundary. However, confidence is low with that the region will
see and strong to severe storms are even extensive coverage. If
convection does initiate, RAP 0-3 km theta-e differences around
25-30 deg C may support a few stronger downdrafts and wind
gusts.

Behind the cold frontal passage, drier and cooler airmass will
move in into Wednesday, which will act to keep rain chances
minimal through Thursday. Forecast highs range from the low 80s
across the eastern Ozarks to low 90s across extreme southwest
Missouri and southeast Kansas, and with dew points around 60
degrees, conditions will feel much more pleasant.

Global models then begin to flatten the ridge as another shortwave
trough moves through the area late Thursday which brings the
next chances for rain into Friday morning. There will remain the
potential for rain chances into the weekend as the region
remains under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft into
early next week.

 &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The Ozarks will remain under the influence of an upper level
ridge with VFR flight conditions forecast through the TAF
period. There remains a low chance of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly east of the regions TAF
locations. Confidence in both occurrence and impact remains
rather low so did not include in the current TAFs.

Winds will remain light (generally less than 10 kt) and prevail
out of the west-southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected overnight as light south to
southwesterly winds occur across the area. Southwesterly winds
will continue Tuesday morning, then a front will move through
the area late morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will
become north to northwesterly behind the front. There is a very
low chance for an isolated shower/storm along the front, but a
cap will be in place so most locations should remain dry across
the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Wise