071
FXUS63 KSGF 180540
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Heat and humidity will continue through today, then return
   late this week.

-  15-30% chances for isolated to scattered showers and
   thunderstorms east of Highway 65 today and Tuesday.

-  Breezy conditions Tuesday with southerly wind gusts up to
   25-30 mph, especially west of Highway 65.

-  Signal for above normal temperatures to continue through the
   rest of June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Current mesoanalysis shows weak upper-level flow over our
region as a longwave trough sits over the NW CONUS. Meanwhile,
an upper-level high sits off the Carolina coast. Hot and humid
conditions today will continue, with high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Scattered cumulus clouds exist over most
of the CWA north of an area of convection over SE Missouri and
NE Arkansas, which is moving to the NNE. A few pop-up showers
have begun in Benton and St. Clair counties.

Heat indices today will reach from 95-100 F. Be sure to take proper
heat protection measures if working outside, such as taking
frequent breaks, and staying cool and hydrated.

Pop-up thundershowers like those in St. Clair and Benton counties
are possible this afternoon into the evening (15-30% chances),
mostly in the area to the east of Highway 65. Precipitable water
values in the area are high (1.5"-2"), so the main hazards from
any of these storms will be locally heavy rainfall and
lightning.

Going from tonight into Tuesday, lows will reach the lower 70s and
upper 60s. Temperatures increase again tomorrow into the
mid-80s. As is common for this time of year, there is a chance
of pop-up thundershowers (15-40% chances), mostly east of
Highway 65, with locally heavy rain and thunder again as the
main hazards. Breezy conditions are also expected, with
southerly winds of 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph. Warm and
humid conditions will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with lows again in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and highs on
Wednesday in the mid to upper-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Throughout the week, hot conditions are expected to continue.
From Thursday through Monday, highs will be in the lower 90s and
lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dewpoints are expected to
decrease slightly into the mid-60s, which will lower rain
chances on Thursday and Friday. Some models show a frontal
passage sometime this weekend, which would increase
precipitation chances, but nothing definitive yet.

The Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 day temperature outlook
continues to show a 50-60% for above average temperatures for June
25th-July 1st.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

FEW to BKN MVFR cigs are currently lifting north through the SGF
and BBG areas. Latest trends suggest these will stay SCT to BKN
at most and generally continue to lift out of the area. However,
redevelopment of low clouds is also possible through 12Z due to
observed low dewpoint depressions. Have added TEMPO groups to
reflect this.

Additionally, low-level wind shear may break the 40 kt threshold
at JLN for the first two hours of this TAF period (06-08Z),
though confidence is very low at this time. Low-level wind shear
should stay between 30-35 kts.

Otherwise, S`ly winds will continue to be breezy today with
winds up to 15-20 kts and gusts up to 25-30 kts, especially at
JLN. These will continue through the TAF period, but will be
strongest between 14-00Z.

Mid-level cloud coverage will increase after 17Z. During this
timeframe, an isolated shower or thunderstorm could also impact
BBG and SGF, though chances and confidence of this occurring
are currently low (15-20%). Much of the precipitation should
stay further east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Price