022
FXUS63 KSGF 022011
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
311 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On-and-off drizzle will continue at times this afternoon into
  tonight for portions of southern Missouri.

- Dry weather will occur this weekend through the majority of
  next week, with a brief cooldown into the 70s this weekend
  before a return to the 80s by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:
Our area sits in a deformation zone aloft, situated between a
trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes, ridging over the
Southeast Coast, and building ridging over the Four Corners and
SoCal Coast with zonal flow in the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, a quasi-stationary front sits directly below the
confluence zone of the Midwest trough and Southeast ridge, with
building high pressure on both sides of the front, which extends
from Texas Hill Country all the way northeast through New
England and beyond. The pressure gradient produced by the two
surface highs is leading to wind gusts up to 25 mph across the
region.

Temperatures have cooled behind the frontal passage, with
northeasterly winds and temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s
and low 70s this afternoon. Cloud cover that kept the morning
brisk and fall-like is slowly breaking apart and clearing from
northwest to southeast. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s
underneath persistent cloud cover in far southern Missouri and
decrease to the north, with upper 40s to low 50s in central
Missouri where skies are already clear.

The northeasterly wind direction is also causing an upsloping
effect with the plateau, and the lift from that upslope flow is
lending itself to patchy drizzle that has persisted through the
morning and early afternoon hours. Overall coverage of drizzle
will decrease as more subsidence becomes more pronounced this
afternoon into tonight. Most models suggest at face value that
drizzle should end by 4-5PM or already be over, but our
placement within the deformation zone aloft may allow for
pockets of rising motion to produce patchy drizzle through the
overnight hours in areas south of I-44, especially near the
Missouri/Arkansas border.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Zonal flow in the Pacific Northwest today will evolve into a
shortwave trough across the Northern Plains tomorrow, with the
ridging over the Four Corners region strengthening and expanding
eastward to fill in behind the wave. Cloud cover may still
linger over southern portions of the area on Saturday, which
would keep temperatures a few degrees cooler, but temperatures
generally are expected to be a seasonally appropriate mid- to
upper 70s. Under mostly clear skies on Sunday, temperatures
could nose as high as low 80s, before a dry cold front moves
south through the area late Sunday into Monday in association
with the wave in the Northern Plains.

Temperatures briefly drop a few degrees back into the 70s in the
wake of the cold front on Monday, but they don`t stay there
long. By Tuesday, ridging builds back across the area, with a
gradual warming trend in the deterministic NBM guidance keeping
us in the 80s most of next week, warming to upper 80s again by
next Friday. NBM 25th-75th percentile temperature spreads are
only 2-4 degrees for most of the area through Friday, indicating
that models are well in agreement that this outcome will occur.
Temperature spreads are slightly larger further north into
central Missouri (5-6 degrees) which would align with LREF
cluster analysis that suggests a late-week frontal boundary
could sag south towards the region. NBM PoPs for Friday are an
astounding 1% for about half of our CWA, which is a real bright
spot in an otherwise warm and completely dry forecast.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions persist across much of southern Missouri
early this afternoon, though skies will continue to clear slowly
from northwest to southeast as the afternoon progresses.
Northeasterly winds 10-15kts will continue to gust up to 25kts
through 00Z, with gusts decreasing overnight. MVFR cigs are
expected to develop again after 06Z, clearing mid-morning on
Saturday. Periods of drizzle will continue this afternoon and
into the overnight hours, which could result in periods of localized
visibility/ceiling reductions at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden