489
FXUS63 KSGF 021708
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 40-70% chances of rain return Friday and last into early next
  weekend. Monitoring for limited flooding potential.

- Temperature and precipitation favored to be above normal for
  next week, but hazardous conditions are not expected at this
  time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 815 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Outflow from morning convection west of the CWA could result in a
few showers and possibly thunderstorms over the western CWA this
afternoon/evening (20-30% coverage/probability). Most areas should
remain dry and no strong or severe storms are expected.

Relatively quiet weather expected through the short term. While
the forecast is currently dry through Thursday, it`s worth
noting that (much like today) nocturnal convection will continue
to be a feature over Kansas and Oklahoma. The pattern doesn`t
favor this activity to advance into the CWA, but it can`t be
ruled out over the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 815 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

40-70% chances of rain return Friday and last into early next
weekend. Monitoring for limited flooding potential.
 - Impacts: Too early to tell, but will be watching for any
   flooding threats. Risk appears low at this time, though.
 - Details: Moving back into a rainy pattern late this week into
   early next week.
 - Confidence: Medium to high confidence in the overall pattern.
   Low confidence in details of daily timing, duration, and
   amounts of rainfall.
 - Meteorological Analysis: The upper high over the central
   CONUS will shift east late this week as upper troughing
   settles over the midwest. This will lead to a wetter pattern.
   Ensemble PWATs are generally 1.5-2", which is around 150% of
   normal. This may support a flooding threat, but important
   details related to that have a low predictability at this
   point.

Temperature and precipitation favored to be above normal for
next week, but hazardous conditions are not expected at this
time.
 - Impacts: No significant impacts currently expected.
 - Details: Ensemble data and CPC forecasts show above normal
   temperatures and preciptiation next week. However, it appears
   that temperatures will only be a few degrees above normal
   (which is highs in the low 80s this time of year), resulting
   in no significant impacts. Additionally, temperature return
   intervals are near zero, showing this period shouldn`t be
   unusual by any means. As for precipitation, slightly above
   normal conditions are possible, but any details related to
   flooding potential are not predictable this far out.
 - Confidence: Low to medium.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions likely to prevail through the TAF period outside
of a low end chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm at
KJLN and KBBG this afternoon. Confidence in this remains too low
to depict in a PROB30 group at this time. Otherwise, light
east-northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots, becoming more east-
southeast this evening into tonight. A scattered cumulus field
prevails this afternoon with high level clouds overspreading the
area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Perez