108
FXUS63 KSGF 302245
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers (30-70% chance) at times across
  portions of the area from this afternoon into Sunday. Periods
  of dry time accompany this system, with only light rainfall
  amounts.

- 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 30-40 mph are
  expected on Monday. The strongest winds will generally occur
  along and west of Highway 65. Very low probability (<10%) for
  a Wind Advisory to be issued.

- 90-95% chance for a widespread band of rain to move across the
  area Monday night through Tuesday. Monitoring a low-end
  potential for severe weather with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A misleading picture of the atmosphere is present on current
mid-level water vapor imagery. The imagery suggests moisture
being widespread across almost the entire CONUS, with an
enhanced corridor across the central Plains ahead of a low-
amplitude shortwave trough in southern Texas. Our 12Z balloon
data, however, shows this moisture largely above 400 mb, with a
socket of very dry air still in place between 850 and 400 mb. A
bit further west of here, showers are noted on radar as positive
vorticity advection ahead of the shortwave lifts into
Oklahoma/Kansas. At the surface, an east-west oriented frontal
boundary is analyzed across central Kansas/Missouri.


Light showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm through Sunday:

This Afternoon and Evening:

Scattered showers are expected to continue west of Highway 65
this afternoon and evening as the shortwave lifts northward.
Since the energy is rooted well above the low-levels, without
any surface low development due to the lack of supplemental jet
streak forcing, rainfall is expected to be light and scattered.
However, as the energy overlaps with the surface front across
central Missouri/Kansas, ~500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE from our 12Z
balloon gives some indication that more convective precipitation
could develop along the front (15-40% chance). This would bring
the chance for more moderate rainfall and a few lightning
strikes under any storm that develops. With the front just
barely scraping our northwest counties, the chance for thunder
in our CWA is low, within a narrow window this afternoon and
evening before the shortwave lifts the front back to the north.


Halloween Morning:

Residual light rain and sprinkles are still possible overnight
as the shortwave continues its trek northward, but any
appreciable rainfall is of very low potential (<15% chance).

Once the shortwave exits northward, negative vorticity
advection behind the wave will provide subsidence and a break in
rain chances across our CWA from Saturday morning through at
least 3-5 PM.


Trick or Treat Timeframe (5 PM - Midnight):

The break will not last long, though, as the next shortwave is
then progged to move into the region during the evening of
Halloween. Unlike the previous wave, this shortwave will be
accompanied by supplemental forcing from a jet streak, which
will give the extra push in deep moisture and lift for more
widespread light to moderate rain showers.

There is some modest uncertainty in the exact onset of showers,
which will be dependent on how quickly moisture can fill in the
low-levels. The earliest arrival time of rain for the area looks
to be around 4-8 PM from SW to NE (15-40% chance). The most
likely time of arrival appears to be between 7 PM and midnight
(40-60% chance). Therefore, the earlier Trick-or-Treating
starts, the greater chance in staying dry.

That said, even though more widespread and moderate rain showers
are forecast, amounts will still be fairly light. It will not be
a super-soaker. Forecast amounts generally stay below a quarter
inch. Though anywhere that may see a heavier shower or
thunderstorm could see up to an inch of rain.

Additionally, temperatures will stay quite mild, maxxing out in
the 70s, and bottoming out in the middle 50s to lower 60s. So
even if it does rain, mild temperatures should also limit
discomfort.


Late Halloween Night into Sunday Morning:

Once the rain arrives, it should be fairly steady through the
night (50-70% chance), with only limited breaks. The more
widespread rain should exit the area by noon Sunday as the
shortwave trough axis moves east of the area.


Sunday Afternoon:

Most the area should be dry Sunday afternoon, but there is a
<10% chance for some light sprinkles on the backside of the
shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Gusty southerly winds on Monday, preceding the next system:

On Monday, a deep and energetic trough that had been progressing
through the west CONUS during the day Sunday will kick off deep
surface cyclogenesis across the north-central Plains. This
create a strong mass response, tightening the surface pressure
gradient, and increasing southerly wind speeds across the area.
Forecasted sustained wind speeds are at 15-25 mph with the NBM
showing a >80% chance for frequent gusts above 30, and a 15-25%
chance for a few gusts up to 40 mph. While this will be quite
windier than what we`ve had throughout the summer, it is still
expected to be below Wind Advisory threshold, with only a less
than 10% chance for gusts to exceed the threshold.


Widespread band of rain expected Monday night through Tuesday:

The strong surface winds will finally pump in some appreciable
surface moisture to the area, with dewpoints reaching the middle
60s Monday, amid highs still in the middle 70s. The energetic
nature of the wave will bring strong and widespread synoptic
lift over the moisture, with a surface front clearing through
the warm sector. This will bring high certainty in seeing
widespread rain with the system Monday night through Tuesday
(90-95% chance).

Ensemble clusters are slowly coming into agreement on the nature
of the system, with only slight disagreements in timing and
exact location. Therefore, rain chances are near certain, with
each cluster having a mean precipitation amount of at least
0.75-1.00 inches across the area. The slight disagreements,
though, produce uncertainty in potential higher amounts. If
enough instability can reach into the area, thunderstorms within
the band of rain could lead to localized amounts up to 3-4
inches in some spots (90th percentile of NBM). The system is
expected to be very progressive, though, and with the D3-D4
Drought in place, the flooding threat will be minimal even with
the higher amounts in play.


Monitoring low-end severe weather potential with the system:

With lots of jet stream energy attending the system, wind shear
will be bountiful (40-60 kts of deep-layer shear). Instability
is a big question, though, depending on the exact position and
timing of the trough. The most likely scenario currently depicts
the greatest severe risk Monday being across Kansas and Oklahoma
where the current SPC Day 4 15% Outlook is in place. The
boundary of this outlook is just west of our southeast Kansas
counties. Looking at LREF clusters, there`s a decent chance
(40-50%) for MUCAPE to be above 250 J/kg as the front moves into
our area late Monday night. This could be enough for a high-
shear, low-CAPE severe setup. However, the threat would be
dwindling as it enters our area with instability decreasing
through the night.

With this most likely scenario, Tuesday`s threat would also be
up in the air. The timing of the system would place any
appreciable rebound instability on our far eastern ends of the
area Tuesday afternoon. Which would keep the severe risk east
of the area. AI guidance does show this "hop" scenario. Of
course, there are clusters that depict a slower or faster wave
progression which would modify any risk. On that same line, a
further south or north position of the trough axis would present
more or less instability, also altering the threat. Therefore,
expect changes in the forecast as we get closer to the event.
Bottom line is at least Marginal threat for a line of low-topped
strong storms appears the most likely scenario given the current
model guidance.


Dry and slightly above normal temperatures to follow:

The cold front attending the strong wave is actually not
expected to be that cold. Temperatures are forecast to only
marginally drop into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday, with
lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A system lifting into the area brings light rain at times
through the TAF period, with low confidence in a stray
thunderstorm or two on Saturday afternoon. In general, ceilings
remain VFR with periods of dry time. A few instances of MVFR
flight conditions cannot be ruled out, though remain unlikely at
this time. Light east- southeast winds around 5 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Perez