434
FXUS63 KSGF 311828
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
128 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues for areas along and west of I-49 today
  until 8 PM for heat index values up to 110 degrees.

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms
  east of Highway 65 from 4 to 11 PM today. Damaging wind gusts
  will be the primary risk, with a secondary risk for hail (ping
  pong ball size) and tornadoes.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures and windy conditions this
  weekend, especially Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to
  lower/middle 80s and gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Synoptic Analysis shows an upper level low pressure system over the
Upper Mississippi Valley, with the shortwave trough axis progged to
continue pushing southeast throughout today. Satellite imagery
showcases the associated surface low currently residing over
northern Iowa, with a cold front extending south/southwest through
northwest Missouri, southeast Kansas, and down into the Texas
panhandle.

This morning`s showers/storms have pushed out of the area, with
radar showing clear weather across the forecast area. Behind
this morning`s convection and ahead of the cold front,
temperatures have begun to climb, with observations as of 1PM
showing temps in the upper 70s/low 80s east of Hwy 65 and into
the low 90s further west towards the MO/KS border so far. Over
the next few hours, temps will continue to climb a couple more
degrees in areas that haven`t experienced peak heating, with
highs topping out in the 90s along/west of Highway 65, and the
mid 80s further east. Additionally, with dewpoints in the 70s
and relative humidity values of 70-80%, it`s been a very muggy
morning/early afternoon. This has helped raise heat index values
into the upper 90s to 105 degree range, especially for areas
that were able to clear out faster from the morning rain,
generally along/west of Highway 65. The Heat Advisory remains in
effect for areas along/west of the I-49 corridor, where heat
indices will range between 105-110 degrees.


Severe Weather Chances This Afternoon/Evening:

Visible satellite has been depicting clearing behind the morning
activity, which has led to daytime heating and destabilization as
much of the area is now in the warm sector. As the afternoon
continues with diurnal heating, Hi-Res guidance suggests MLCAPE
values upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg ahead of the trailing cold front.
Deep layer shear values remain relatively marginal between 25-35kts,
however as they`re oriented perpendicular to the approaching frontal
boundary, some semi-discrete cells could initiate before developing
into a more organized cluster/line segment, bringing the potential
for severe weather. SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
for areas east of Highway 65, with a Marginal Risk (1 of 5)
extending westward. Right now, damaging winds look to be the primary
hazard, especially if any part of the line segment can begin to bow
out. If discrete cells do end up initiating ahead of the front
(as CAMs are suggesting) , large hail up to ping pong ball size
will also pose a secondary threat, however this is a lower-end
scenario. There will also be a short window in which tornadoes
will pose a threat, especially if SRH values up to 150-250 m2/s2
can align with the highest instability. This would primarily be
for areas east of Highway 65, which is highlighted by SPC`s 5%
tornado risk area. CAMs suggest the greatest severe threat would
be within a 4pm-11pm window, with the better severe chances
along/east of Highway 63.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The cold front will usher in a cooler, drier airmass into the region
on Saturday, leading to highs remaining in the 70s for much of the
area (and into the low 80s for far southeast KS/southwest MO). This
would be well below (10-15 degrees below) the climatological normal.
This is supported by northwesterly flow aloft, as an upper level
closed High pressure system resides over the Four Corners region,
with an associated upper Ridge over the western CONUS. Additionally,
Saturday will be breezy, with gusts up to 30-35mph throughout the
day.

Temperatures will gradually warm up throughout next week, with highs
reaching the low to mid 90s by midweek. Mostly dry weather is
expected as we head into the beginning of August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The morning convection has moved off to the east and ended
across the area. Clouds will clear out some this afternoon and
winds will be southwesterly and gusty at times. A cold front
will move through area late afternoon into the evening. Winds
will become gusty out of the northwest behind the front and
gusts right behind the front for a few hours after the front
boundary. Thunderstorms will be possible along the front this
evening mainly east of Highway 65, but could impact the KSGF and
KBBG sites before moving off to the east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-088-
     093-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Wise