151
FXUS63 KSGF 162250
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area through
  Saturday. Highs in the 90s to near 100 with heat index values
  of around 100 to 105 can be expected. Overnight lows will
  only drop into the 70s. Several daily records may be tied or
  broken.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
  mainly east of Highway 65 this afternoon and again on Thursday
  afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the area
along with the hot air mass early this afternoon. The ridge and
hot conditions will remain over the area through the rest of
the week. Highs will continue to warm into the middle 90s to
near 100 today and again on Thursday. Lows will only cool into
the 70s. There will be the potential for some record high
temperatures this week, please see the climate section below for
more record temperature information from around the area. Heat
Index values around 100 to 105 will also occur today through
the rest of the week into the weekend. A Heat Advisory is in
effect areawide today through Saturday.

Scattered showers and isolated storms have developed across
portions of the eastern Missouri Ozarks this afternoon as
instability has increased and the cap has weakened with the
heating of the day. This scattered activity will continue to
develop and slowly move east this afternoon dissipating early
this evening, mainly occurring east of Highway 65. Deep layer
shear is weak with the upper level high over the region. MLCAPE
values of 1500-2500 J/kg are in place east of Highway 65. This
activity is/will continue to be pulse in nature. Precipitable
water values are around 1.75-2" and storm motions are slow, so
heavy downpours can be expected with these showers and storms
but will be brief for any given location and very localized as
this activity is not widespread. The severe risk is overall low
but a strong storm or two with wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph
could be possible, but lightning and heavy downpours will be
the risk with most of the storms that are able to develop today.

Isolated pulse type showers and storms will once again be
possible on Thursday afternoon/early evening. Coverage should be
less tomorrow than what is occurring today; therefore, most
locations will likely remain dry on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The upper level ridge will remain over the area Friday into the
weekend before starting to flatten some later this week. Highs
will continue to warm into the middle 90s to near 100 degrees
again Friday and Saturday, and possible again on Sunday, especially
across the southern portions of the area. A slightly drier air
mass will start to move into the area late week, so dew points
may be slightly lower, but heat index values around 100 degrees
are expected through at least Saturday. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for the entire area through 8 PM Saturday.

An upper level trough will move south into the Plains late this
weekend then will move northeast into the Great Lakes region
early next week. The trough will flatten the ridge some and send
a front south into the area later Saturday into Sunday. Shower
and storm chances (30-70%) will occur Saturday evening into
Sunday with the best chances across the northern portions of the
area closer to the upper level trough. With the upper level
support remaining more to the north, rainfall amounts will
likely decrease to the southeast and not all locations could be
impacted by rain--especially further south.

A cooler air mass will move into portions of the area late this
weekend into early next week. Highs are expected to range from
around 80 across the north portions of the area to around 90
across southern Missouri early next week as the upper level
trough and cooler temps remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR flight conditions likely to prevail through most of the TAF
period, outside of a low chance for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm this evening. Confidence remains too low to depict
in TAFs at this time. Otherwise, south-southeast winds at 5 to
10 knots through tonight, becoming southwesterly on Thursday.
Additional low chances for an isolated shower or thunderstorm on
Thursday afternoon with a cumulus field overspreading the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 16:
KSGF: 95/1980
KJLN: 98/1954
KVIH: 96/1954
KUNO: 99/1980

September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
KVIH: 97/1953
KUNO: 97/1953

September 18:
KSGF: 95/2019
KJLN: 97/2022
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972

September 19:
KSGF: 96/1954
KJLN: 99/2024
KUNO: 97/1954

September 20:
KSGF: 97/1954
KVIH: 95/1954
KUNO: 97/1954

September 21:
KUNO: 95/1955


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 16:
KSGF: 73/1927

September 17:
KSGF: 73/1978

September 18:
KSGF: 74/1931

September 19:
KSGF: 73/1931

September 20:
KSGF: 74/2018

September 21:
KSGF: 73/1931

September 22:
KSGF: 70/2017

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Burchfield