376
FXUS63 KSGF 021740
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances over central MO taper off later this morning.
  There`s a 20-40% chance for rain to occur again this afternoon
  mainly for areas along/south of I-44. Rainfall amounts remain
  light <0.25".

- Higher chance for thunderstorms (50-70%) along and north of
  Interstate 44 Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some of these
  storms may be strong to severe as a Slight/Marginal risk for
  severe weather has been issued for that area.

- Strong cold front moves through Wednesday night bringing
  cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday. Another front
  moves through on Friday bringing another round of rain
  (20-40%) throughout the day and cooler temperatures in the
  70s for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy again with another
shortwave disturbance moving through the area. Right now, there
are isolated rain showers ongoing over central MO but those will
taper off by late morning. By this afternoon, showers initiate
mainly south of I-44 but not everyone will see rain. Rainfall
accumulations remain light <0.25". Highs will be in the lower
80s with light east/northeasterly winds. Tonight, skies will
start to clear out and lows will a bit cooler in the upper 50s.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s and
dewpoints in the mid 60s. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday with a Slight risk
(2/5) for severe weather over a small area in Bourbon county in
SE KS and a Marginal risk (1/5) for areas along and north of
I-44. This is due to a cold front moving through tomorrow
afternoon. The most favorable environment for severe weather to
occur will be over eastern KS as they will have the better
instability. We will be a bit capped near the surface tomorrow
and we will need a bit more lift to occur over us to see any
severe storms. Though, as the surface front moves through
tomorrow afternoon, this may be just what we need to initiate a
few strong storms. Main risks will be damaging wind gusts around
50-60 mph and up to 1 inch hail especially if these storms can
get elevated behind the surface front. Rainfall amounts will be
highest over central MO around 0.5-1" and <0.5" for areas south
of I-44. Rain may linger over the SE MO counties through
Wednesday night (20-40% chance) and lows will be in the 50s as
that cooler air starts to seep in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Thursday will be a pleasant day with highs in the 70s and mostly
sunny skies. Then, Friday features another frontal passage.
Model guidance has trended cooler for this weekend as a front
makes its way through the area by Friday afternoon. Right now,
there isn`t severe weather expected with that front. Though,
there are chances for rain through most of the day on Friday.
The timing of the front appears to still be uncertain. Though,
rain chances do increase by Friday afternoon/evening hours.
Expect rain showers to be intermittent on Friday with a 20-40%
chance of rain covering most of the area. If attending any
outdoor activities on Friday, make sure to know before you go
and check the latest forecast at weather.gov/sgf.

Highs for this weekend will be cooler than average once we get
another dose of decent cold air advection. Highs will be in the
70s with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s across the area.
Skies will be mostly sunny with another low end <20% chance of
rain for SE KS and SW MO on Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Light and variable winds are expected to continue through 14Z as
a weak low pressure system traverses the TAF sites. Within the
low pressure area, some isolated to scattered showers are
possible around the sites between 19-01Z, especially around SGF
and BBG. Current short-term guidance only gives a 10-20% chance
of lightning with any given convective shower, therefore have
precluded any thunder mention in the TAFs.

Otherwise, there is a low-end chance for lowered cigs/patchy fog
at BBG between 09-13Z, though confidence is currently too low
to include in the TAF at this time.

Winds will settle out of the west by 14Z, increasing to 5-10 kts
by the end of the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025


Record Low Temperatures:

September 6:
KVIH: 44/1956

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Burchfield