613
FXUS63 KSGF 140823
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
323 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for south-central and southwest
  Missouri, and extreme southeast Kansas beginning 11 AM today,
  and lasting through 8 PM Tuesday. Highs in the 90s with heat
  index values of 100-105 can be expected during this period.

- A stalled frontal boundary northwest of the area brings low
  15-40% chances of rain northwest of I-44 through the week,
  with a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe weather clipping
  portions of west and central Missouri on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A few high level clouds are lingering around the area early this
morning associated with the surface low to our west and to the
stationary boundary to our south. Overnight temperatures have
been warm in the upper 60s to mid 70s. There is a bit of
convection occurring over NW MO, but the track of the low should
keep most of the rain just north of us out of our area. A Heat
Advisory will go into effect at 11 AM today for south-central
and southwest Missouri, and extreme southeast Kansas for heat
index values of 100 to 105 degrees. The advisory continues into
Tuesday evening, but may need to be extended in future forecast
updates. Highs today will be in the 90s with mostly clear skies
and gusty southerly winds near 20 mph. Be sure to take frequent
breaks and drink plenty of water if spending long periods of
time outside this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A cold front will linger over central MO for the rest of the
week and bring intermittent rain chances to that area. Most of
the area will remain dry and hot for the rest of the week due to
a high pressure system that will situate itself over the
southeast CONUS.

There may be a shortwave on Tuesday that brings rain a bit
further south (30-60%), that`s where the Marginal risk (1/5) for
severe weather comes in. Right now, wind seems to be the main
threat with any severe storms and those storms should stay
confined to areas along and north of I-44. We`ll have plenty of
lift and instability due to the front and deep-layer shear will
be adequate near 30 knots. Though, the better environment for
severe weather will likely be further north, outside of our
CWA.

Towards the end of the work week is when the high pressure
system begins to push further east and when rain chances attempt
to become more widespread. There has already been a decrease in
rain chances later this week which may indicate that the ridge
sticks around a bit longer than anticipated. Rain chances
becoming more widespread will be determined by the behavior of
the ridge. If the ridge stays put, it`ll be more difficult to
get rain any further south than central MO. Highs will be in the
90s this week with temperatures lowering into the 80s for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR through the period with gusty southerly winds. Winds will
remain near 10 knots overnight, then increase to 20 knots by
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ066>068-077>082-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria