316
FXUS63 KSGF 222252
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
552 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures and mostly dry for the rest of this
  week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Below average temperatures to start next week, with 50-75%
  confidence for highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

- 20 to 50% rain chances will occur at times early next week
  with the highest chances occurring over southwestern Missouri
  where a 40-60% chance for more widespread above normal
  precipitation exists.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Fair weather cumulus have formed over the area once again today.
There is quite a bit of widespread cloud cover today but it`s
trying to mix out as the afternoon continues on. Either way, the
cloud cover hasn`t quite affected our daytime highs today. We
will still top out in the upper 80s over the next few hours and
the clouds will continue to clear out. Tonight will be dry again
with lows in the mid 60s with a chance for valley fog near the
rivers again early tomorrow morning.

Saturday will be another warm day with dewpoints slightly higher
than they were today which means it`ll feel a bit more humid.
Tomorrow will likely start out with scattered clouds once again
and they will slowly dissipate through the day. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 80s again with breezy northerly winds gusting
up to 20 mph by the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Ridging starts to break down this weekend and our cold front
will be on its way! The surface front will move through on
Saturday evening but we won`t start to really feel the effects
of the cold front until Sunday. As the front moves through on
Saturday late afternoon, there may be enough instability over SE
KS and SW MO to initiate a few thunderstorms over those areas.
Right now, there`s only a 15-30% chance for rain to occur but
that activity should remain sub-severe.

The large mid-level trough that moves through the area will
allow cooler air to settle into the state for the start of next
week as well as multiple chances for rain to occur. Though, it`s
important to point out that the rainfall we receive next week
won`t necessarily bust the drought. This is especially true if
the drier solution occurs and we miss out on most of the
rainfall as some models have these systems trending too far
south of our area. As of right now, it appears that SE KS and
SW MO still have the highest chances for rain with this upcoming
pattern change as they sit at 30-50% for the start of next week.
That area will have to be monitored for excessive rainfall if
they receive multiple rounds of rain in the same areas. There
will likely not be any all day washouts and not everyone will
see rain. Though, with multiple rounds occurring, we are hoping
everyone does get under a shower or two by the end of next week.
The driest day is forecast to be on Tuesday with chances of
rain on all the other days. Models are showing the most
widespread rain occuring Thursday into Friday but we`ll have to
keep an eye on model trends to see if that rain axis shifts as
this looking about a week out. Either way, temperatures will be
pleasant in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the day and low
50s into the 40s overnight which is about 10 to 15 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Enjoy the early taste of fall!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A cumulus could deck around 5 to 6kft will remain over the area
early this evening but will dissipated after sunset this. North
to northeasterly winds are currently occurring across the area
and will become light and variable this evening into Satruday
morning.

A front will move through the area Saturday afternoon and
evening. Northerly winds will occur across the area on
Saturday. There could be some scattered showers and maybe a
thunderstorm along the front Saturday afternoon/evening but
coverage will be limited with the better chances expected to the
west of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Wise