539
FXUS63 KSGF 100839
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible
  today, mainly along and north of I-44 (20-40%) with the
  better chances north of Highway 54 (40-70%).

- Above average high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  are forecast today through next week, but with decreasing
  confidence toward the end of the forecast period. Mainly
  looking at dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Cluster of thunderstorms currently over Northern MO and southern
IA is focused on the leading edge of an upper jet streak, the
nose of the low level jet, and in an area of warm air advection.
All these parameters will be weakening with time and southern
extend today, but still could see 50-70% probabilities
along/north of Highway 54 this morning, then roughly 20-40%
chances along/north of I-44 this morning and afternoon. South of
I-44, chances are less than 20%. No severe weather is expected.

Could see some fog tonight, mainly along and east of Highway
65, with portions of central MO possibly seeing dense fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

As has been a bit of a tradition around here as of late, a ridge
builds over the area this weekend and possibly persist through
the rest of the long term in some form or another. This will
lead to even warmer temperatures over the weekend with highs in
the mid 80s.

There is potential for the pattern to be marginally disrupted by
an upper trough pushing in from the west, but that should do
little more than lead to some cooler potential Monday and
Tuesday. Currently, the forecast and NBM deterministic high
temps are in the mid 70s to mid 80s (coolest NW) as values are
biased low due to increased cloud cover and 20% chances for rain
over the NW. If the front that may lead to these features does
not make it into the area, then dry weather and mid 80s highs
can be expected.

In general, ensemble data supports the ridge becoming more
established mid to late next week, but with some disagreement
that leads to decreasing confidence with time. The forecast
calls for highs in the low to mid 80s and dry weather Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of a low
chance for showers both this morning and again this evening.
Chances this morning are too low for a mention in the TAF, but
confidence is high enough at SGF for a PROB30 mention late
today. There may be just enough saturation at the top of the
boundary layer for some diurnal cu this afternoon, but otherwise
clouds will be limited to the mid and high levels. Winds will
remain southerly at 4-10kts through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...White