647
FXUS63 KSGF 081830
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through this evening for
  counties west of Highway 65. Maximum afternoon heat index
  values around 105 to 110. A Heat Advisory has been expanded
  for much of the area through Wednesday, with heat index values
  around 100 to 105.

- There is a 60-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. There is a Marginal (1 of
  5) risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Low
  confidence in the potential for localized heavy rainfall.

- Near average temperatures into the weekend, with additional
  shower and thunderstorm chances (20-50%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Today-Tonight:
Extreme heat continues across portions of the area today, with
high temperatures back into the upper 90s to around 100. While
efficient afternoon mixing keeps dewpoints in the middle 60s,
the expectation remains on track for maximum heat index values
around 100 to 110. The highest values will be found west of
Highway 65, where an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
through this evening. Areas along and just east of Highway 65
are in a Heat Advisory through this evening to account for heat
index values around 105. Elsewhere, values peak around 100,
which can still be dangerous for heat sensitive populations.
This heat is supported by the strong and persistent mid-level
ridging, which has encompassed the region for over a week.

In addition to the heat, an isolated shower or thunderstorm
remains possible late this afternoon into the early evening.
However, chances (10-20%) and coverage are expected to remain
limited to portions of southwest MO. A brief heavy downpour or
stray rumble of thunder remain in cards. Minimal overnight
relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Wednesday-Thursday:
Another hot and humid day expected on Wednesday before a pattern
change unfolds over the region. A mild start in the morning will
gave way to highs reaching back into the upper 90s to near 100
by Wednesday afternoon. This occurs ahead of an approaching
shortwave and associated cold front, progged to bring beneficial
rainfall to the area through mid-week. Ahead of the front,
dewpoints reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s as low-level
moisture funnels in from the south. This will further be
supported by PWATs of 1.9 to 2.1 inches along the front. The
strong warm air advection may support scattered showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front by Wednesday afternoon, though
there is uncertainty with the extent of coverage as the main
forcing still remains displaced further to the west. With this
in mind, isolated convection and cloud cover may keep parts of
the area cooler through the afternoon, but currently does not
outweigh our confidence that heat remains a headline. Given the
current forecast of isolated convection and scattered cloud
cover, heat index values are once again progged to reach 100 to
105+. Given the longevity of this heat over a multiple day
period and confidence in further heat impacts (NWS HeatRisk -
Major 3 of 4), we have elected to continue/extend a Heat
Advisory for much of the area on Wednesday. This only excludes
portions of central MO at this time, where confidence is lower
in extreme heat.

Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-80%) increase across the
northern part of the area through the late afternoon and evening
as front approaches, becoming more widespread (60-90% chances)
further south into Wednesday night and Thursday. Ample
instability (MUCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) is forecast in the vicinity
of marginal shear (0-6km 25-30 knots). Additionally, steeper low
and mid level lapse rates should support a few stronger updrafts
in this environment. As a result, the ingredients are in place
for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC depicts
this potential with a Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Outlook over the
area on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Primary hazard with the
strongest thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60
mph, though a vigorous updraft or two may support hail to the
size of quarters. Damaging winds may be further supported by
precipitable loading and rapid collapse of updrafts. Overall,
widespread severe weather is not expected.

As convection continues into Wednesday night and Thursday, there
may become additional focus on the training of activity over the
same areas. While this rainfall is beneficial to ongoing
drought conditions, too much rain in a short period of time can
still support isolated instances of flash flooding. For now,
confidence remains low in this potential given the groundwater
deficiency and departures from normal. Most locations receive
around 0.50 to 1.0 inch of rainfall through Thursday, with
localized corridors of 2 to 4 inches. Pinning down these exact
corridors will be best analyzed in the near term with mesoscale
trends. In general, this rainfall will remain beneficial to
ongoing drought conditions and increasing fire weather danger.

Friday-Monday:
Additional disturbances look to move through the area on a daily
basis into and through the weekend. This features a rather
pessimistic rain chance forecast (20-50%) as we will have to pin
down each daily disturbance. Expect additional PoP
changes/modifications with future updates. NBM temp spreads have
shrunk some which leads to higher confidence that temps will
remain closer to average in the 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period, with south-southwesterly
winds 10-15kts with occasional gusts up to 20kts possible this
afternoon. Mostly clear skies, save for the potential of some
scattered afternoon cu development with bases around 8kft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 130PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026


Record High Temperatures:

September 8:
KSGF: 98/1960
KJLN: 98/1955
KVIH: 100/1901
KUNO: 99/1990

September 9:
KSGF: 98/1939
KJLN: 100/1947
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 99/1980

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 8:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 9:
KSGF: 75/1939

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-
     097-101.
     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-
     067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101>103.
     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MOZ066-067-077-078-081-082-088-089-091>094-096>098-
     101>103-105-106.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>057-069.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ068-079-080-090-
     095-104.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Burchfield