112
FXUS63 KSGF 142253
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
553 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will be possible in valleys and low areas at times
  tomorrow morning.

- Temperatures warm to above average for the remainder of the
  work week.

- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday into Saturday night.

- More seasonable temperatures to begin next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

An upper level ridge of high pressure was in place over the
region and will be linger over the area into Friday morning.
Partly cloudy skies were over the region with afternoon highs
around the 80 degree mark this afternoon and also again on
Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will cool into the middle 50s to
the lower 60s tonight. With light winds in place thanks to high
pressure, patchy areas of fog may develop in river valleys and
other low areas but is not expected to be widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

An upper level low along the coast of California will make its
way to the east through the end of the work week. This low will
move slowly northeast this week, finally lifting into the north
central plains and central Canada late Thursday night into
Friday morning. Trough Friday morning, quiet weather is expected
as the upper ridge and high pressure remains in control through
then.

As the upper level low moves northeast across the plains, the
ridge will be shunted off to the east. Highs will again warm
into lower to middle 80s on Friday as the ridge and warmer air
mass remains in place. Southwesterly winds will increase some on
Friday ahead of the system to the west. Winds could gusts to 20
to 30 mph at times on Friday.

With the ridge moving to the east, surface and upper level flow
will become southwesterly. This will allow for increased
moisture and instability to make its way into the Ozarks. A cold
front will then begin to make its way across the plains and into
the area Friday night through Saturday. Along with the trough
comes the potential for showers and thunderstorms as early as
Friday night but more likely Saturday into Saturday evening.
Models remain in good agreement in handling the upper level
trough and cold front moving through region this weekend, though
timing and storm mode still have some differences between the
ensemble model members.

Though a few members indicate a souther closed low in the upper
level pattern, more members are going with an open wave
solution. With this in mind, this would support a bit slower
frontal movement which may allow for more residence time for
rainfall. If this were to occur, a few locations might see a
short reprieve in the ongoing drought across the area.

With the slower frontal passage occurring later in the day on
Saturday, this would for allow better moisture return and
instability to move further north into the area bringing the
potential for some strong to severe storms to much of the area
on Saturday. There are other solution that are in between these
two which remain possible.

Regardless, current expectations are for shower and
thunderstorm chances across the Ozarks early as late Friday with
shower and storm chances lingering into Saturday evening and
night as a cold front moves through the region. The potential
for some severe storms across portions of the area remains
possible, with the more likely solutions though changes in track
and timing or which scenario ultimately develops will determine
the severe risk and where it may occur. Uncertainty remains on
the exact details due to the timing and track differences of the
upper level trough between the model members.

Cooler conditions will occur behind the front on Sunday with
highs in the 70s and even 60s across portions of the area on
Sunday. Temperatures then look to be more seasonable average for
the beginning of next week with highs in the middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

For the 00z TAFS, upper level ridge continues to build northward
over the area and should keep the majority of cloud cover north
of the TAF locations through the period. We are expecting VFR
conditions through the period with a light wind under 10 kts
veering to the east-southeast on Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg