462
FXUS63 KSGF 181727
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread this
  afternoon into the evening. Golf ball sized hail, damaging
  winds up to 70 mph, and brief tornadoes are the potential
  hazards within the strongest storms. Some of these storms
  could produce localized flooding especially in the eastern
  Ozarks. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 6pm.

- Cooler temperatures in the 60s will occur on Sunday behind the
  front. Slight warm up with gusty southerly winds up to 35 mph
  will occur on Monday followed by high temperatures in the 60s
  and 70s with lows in the 40s for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

A cold front is currently draped over NW MO down to western OK
early this morning and storms have been firing along the front.
So far most of these storms have been over NE KS and northern MO
and have been non- severe. Though, they have started to
strengthen a bit with one observation showing a 50 mph wind gust
from a severe warned storm in the KCMO area. That severe storm
that was warned on was a supercell and that activity will
continue to push south and east as the front inches closer.

Today`s severe threat will be a mixed bag of storm modes with
discrete and linear modes both in the forecast for today.
Discrete cells can bring large hail, tornadoes, and damaging
winds while a linear mode typically brings a brief spin-up
tornado or two and damaging winds. Today is not a slam dunk set
up and timing will determine everything as instability and wind
shear change throughout the day. The day will likely start with
elevated instability over the area and then transition to
surface based instability as the CAP breaks due to diurnal
heating later this morning. There will be a small window where
this surface based instability could lead to a chance for
supercell tornadoes to occur. This area is primarily along and
south of I-44. Though, this window doesn`t last long as these
cells will be quick to congeal into a QLCS (linear mode) and
push east through the Ozarks. There is a chance for supercells
to also form over the eastern Ozarks ahead of the QLCS this
afternoon. The main factor that could limit a supercell from
forming over the eastern Ozarks or even limit the severity of
the QLCS would be the 850mb low-level jet (wind shear). The jet
is forecast to weaken by midday and that could lessen the
severity of the storms. It`s tough to know at what stage the
complex will be at that time, but the severe threat exists all
the way into Kentucky, so prepare for all hazards (golf ball
size hail, 70 mph winds, brief spin up tornadoes).

Saturday into Saturday night Flooding Potential: CAMS are
indicating more training of storm potential over the area with
the highest rain totals along and southeast of the interstate 44
corridor. Widespread rain of 1 to 2 inches remains possible with
a more narrow corridor of 2 to 3 inches and isolated higher
amounts of over 4 inches possible especially over the eastern
Ozarks. Despite the current drought status over the area, this
rainfall potential may produce some localized areas of flooding
especially in urban areas.

Much drier air begins to push into the area late Saturday night
and should end the precipitation from west to east by the
evening hours. Though, as cooler air ushers into the area, gusty
northerly winds will accompany it as well. Expect winds to gust
near 35 mph Saturday night with mostly cloudy skies and lows in
the 40s. Sunday will be a beautiful sunny day with highs in the
mid 60s with northwesterly winds steadily decreasing throughout
the day. Sunday night will be chilly with lows in the upper 30s
to lower 40s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Warmer and breezy on Monday: The surface high will shift east of
the area Sunday night and Monday. An upper level wave will push
across the northern plains and upper Mississippi valley and push
a cold front through the area on Monday. Ahead of the front,
gusty winds up to 35 mph will be possible as the pressure
gradient tightens between the departing high and advancing
front. Temperatures should swing back into the low to mid 70s
across the area. It doesn`t look like enough moisture will
return into the area for precipitation with the frontal passage,
so we are keeping things dry for now.

Cooler temperatures Tuesday through Thursday: A cooler air mass
will push into the area behind the front on Monday bringing more
fall like air to the area. Highs will generally be in the 60s
and lows in the 40s, but could see some mid to upper 30s in the
eastern Ozarks Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Rain chances Thursday: The low that is currently being cutoff
from the main flow off the California coast will eventually get
kicked out and absorbed into the main westerlies by midweek. If
the energy can hold together, we could see some rain chances
return by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

A widespread area of showers and thunderstorms will move
through the TAF sites this afternoon with lower ceilings and
vis. Thunderstorms could also product wind gusts to 50kts in
localized areas. Thunderstorms look to move east of the TAF
sites by this evening with improving flight conditions. Surface
winds will likely be south to southwesterly this afternoon with
a turn to the west/northwest this evening and tonight with gusts
to 30kts. Low level wind shear is likely at the sites
overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Burchfield