915
FXUS63 KSGF 101052
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
552 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning along a corridor roughly from the
  Oklahoma border to the Lake of the Ozarks region Sunday
  through Wednesday. Heat Index values around 105 are expected
  on a daily basis in this area. A Heat Advisory is also in
  effect for locations farther south and east through the same
  timeframe with daily Heat Index values expected to be around
  100.

- Low rain chances (15-30%) Thursday through Saturday north of
  Interstate 44. Confidence remains low with a downward trend
  in rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show an upper level high slowly
expanding east towards the area. Warmer air aloft continues to
advect into the area with the 00z KSGF sounding measuring an
850mb temp of 23C and a 700mb temp of 14C. This has created a
strong mid level capping inversion across the area. A low level
jet across Kansas and northwest Missouri has allowed for the
development of a small cluster of showers and storms near the
Kansas City area. This cluster of storms was on the edge of the
stronger capping with a slow southward movement. Temps remain
quite mild overnight with many areas in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

Hot and Mostly Dry Weather: The small cluster of storms may
clip Morgan County early this morning and have added 20-30
percent rain chances across that area. Otherwise dry conditions
are expected with minimal daily cloud cover. A slight increase
in 850mb temps will allow for highs to climb a few degrees from
previous days across the area. Many areas will reach the middle
to upper 90s with 100 degrees across the I-49 corridor and west.
Joplin reached 100 degrees for a high temp on Sunday with
further adds confidence in these forecast high temps given the
dry vegetation in that area. While there was some decent mixing
yesterday, afternoon heat indicies were still able to reach the
103-108 range across the Extreme Heat Warning area with
indicies closer to 100 across the Heat Advisory area. Very warm
overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s will continue the
next few days. Expecting similar conditions today and Tuesday
and no changes planned to the heat headlines. NWS Heat Risk
continues to show the entire area in the Major to Extreme
category therefore heat sensitive groups will need to take
proper precautions.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Hot conditions continue with decreasing rain chances: Ensembles
suggest that the upper ridge will slide further east and become
centered just south of the area by mid week. This will allow a
more westerly component at 850mb with some of the highest temps
advecting in (850mb temps of 24-26C). Latest NBM continues to
show widespread upper 90s to lower 100s mainly across locations
west of Highway 65 on Wednesday. Locations that have seen
rain recently may still be too green to reach 100 but it will
be close as consecutive days of these high temps will begin to
dry soils/grass out. Dewpoints will mix out a little further in
the afternoon each day however the higher air temps may still
balance out to allow for continued heat indicies of 100-108.

Latest ensemble guidance has trended stronger with the upper
ridge and would lead to hotter and drier conditions for
Thursday through at least Friday. It is not unusual for these
stronger summertime highs to remain established for longer
periods of time than deterministic models originally indicate.
We are becoming more confident that heat headlines may need to
be extended into Thursday and perhaps Friday however will need
to see how much mixing occurs and the exact placement of rain
chances to our north. Highs may end of remaining well into the
90s to around 100 Thursday and Friday for the southwest half of
the area. Rain chances have shifted further north for Thursday
and Friday and this trend may continue further into the weekend.
Latest CPC guidance indicates the prolonged heat may last or
redevelop over the area during the following week (August 17-21).
Therefore heat sensitive groups will need to prepare for the
potential of an extended period of heat with low rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
some high clouds and afternoon cumulus around 6kft. Winds will
increase out of the south to southwest during the late
morning and afternoon with gusts around 20kts likely.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>092-095>098-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield