791
FXUS63 KSGF 132322
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will
  continue to develop this afternoon into early this evening.
  Cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain will be the
  risk with any storms today.

- Patchy fog will be possible tonight into early Friday morning,
  especially where clouds can clear out some tonight.

- Isolated afternoon storms will be possible (20% chance) for
  locations mainly west of Highway 65 Saturday afternoon. Gusty
  winds, briefing heavy rainfall, and lightning will be the risk
  with any storm that can develop.

- On and off lower end chances(15-40%) for showers and
  thunderstorms this weekend into the middle of next week.

- Heat index values warming into the mid 90s to around 100 by
  Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

An upper level low is currently over the region this afternoon.
Scattered showers are developing across the area associated with
the low. Some weak instability is also developing across the
area this afternoon which is allowing isolated thunderstorms to
develop. This activity is currently occurring along and east of
Interstate 49 and will continue to move east this afternoon
into early this evening with coverage decreasing from west to
east as the low moves east. Lightning and brief heavy rainfall
will be the risk with any storms that develop this afternoon and
evening. The best potential for the scattered showers and
isolated storms will be now into early this evening (until
6-7pm) with coverage and chances decrease this evening.

Additional scattered shower and storm development will be
possible late tonight into Saturday morning across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri as some MUCAPE
starts to spread north into the area. The overall better
potential will be south of the area but this activity may clip
the far southwestern portions of the area.

Dewpoints are currently in the middle 60s across the area this
afternoon and lows are expected to drop into the middle to
lower 60s tonight into Saturday morning. Clouds could linger
over the area tonight but where clouds can clear some fog
development will be possible tonight into early Saturday
morning.

Highs will warm into the lower to middle 80s on Saturday.
Instability will increase across extreme southeastern Kansas
and southwestern Missouri, west of Highway 65 and especially
along and west of I-49. There will not be a lot of force but
the cap will weaken with day time heating and a few pulse type
storms will be possible Saturday afternoon/early evening.
Lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and gusty winds will be
possible with the storms. Coverage will be limited and only the
western/southwestern portions of the area will see the potential
for these pulse type storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Storms are expected to develop across the central Plains
Saturday afternoon/evening. These storms may develop into a
complex and move east/southeast. Models differ on where the
storms develop and also track so confidence and the track of
this activity is low at this time. It is possible this activity
moves into the area, with the west and southwestern portions of
the area having the better chances, Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Gusty winds will be possible with this activity late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Depending on the track it`s
possible an outflow boundary moves through the area and
additional storms redevelop ahead of this activity Sunday
afternoon and evening. It`s also possible that clouds linger
across the area along with some rain at times which limits
instability and therefore redevelopment of storms. If this
activity misses the area completely instability will increase
during the peak heating of the day and could allow for some
pulse type storm development to occur Sunday afternoon and
evening.

The ensemble model members then show an upper level trough
moving east out of the Plains by the middle of next week, but
continue to differ on the timing and track of the trough.
Additional shower and storm chances will be possible across the
area with the passage of the trough. Storm development will also
be possible across the Plains and storms could track to the
southeast during the the middle of next week brining chances for
showers and storms to the area at times next week.

An upper level ridge will start to move into the area behind
the trough and a warmer and humid air mass will start to move
into the area by the middle of next week. Heat index values in
the middle 90s to around 100 degrees will be possible. Will have
to watch nightly storm complexes which could affect
temperatures but that will be a short term forecast challenge
otherwise the ensemble model members are in overall good
agreement with temperatures next week in the middle 80s to the
lower 90s each day next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A few scattered showers will remain possible at the SGF and BBG
sites at the beginning of the TAF period, which may briefly
bring MVFR ceilings. This activity will diminish and shift east
of the terminals after 03Z. Partial clearing of the cloud cover
may occur overnight, which will allow for fog development,
particularly across western MO. Any fog looks to lift by 15Z
where VFR conditions are expected to then prevail.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Didio