414
FXUS63 KSGF 040834
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of drizzle persist through early this morning, before
  dissipating after sunrise.

- Light rain chances return on Thursday (20-40%), with the
  greatest chances west of Highway 65.

- Drier and cooler this weekend, with highs in the upper 50s to
  lower 60s. Lows in the 30s will introduce the potential for
  frost and freeze.

- Warming trend early next week, with a return of temperatures 5
  to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

This Morning-Tonight:
Persistent areas of drizzle/light rain across the Ozark Plateau
this morning. Additionally, breezy westerly winds make for a
rather chilly early November morning. Drizzle looks to diminish
towards sunrise. Clouds are expected to linger through much of
today as a mid- level low slowly builds east into the Great
Lakes region. This will keep temperatures cooler this afternoon,
with highs in the lower 60s. It is plausible even cooler
maximum temperatures are realized if scattering of low- level
clouds does not occur. This would keep the area closer to the
middle to upper 50s. For tonight, clearing skies will give way
to a chilly night with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Even
lower temperatures in the 30s can be expected across the valleys
of the eastern Ozarks. Some patchy frost remains plausible in
these areas.

Thursday:
Ensemble guidance continues to depict the next shortwave and
associated frontal passage move into the area on Thursday.
However, trends suggest lower coverage of PoPs and potential
amounts. The latest forecast highlights 20-40% chances of light
scattered showers. Rainfall amounts look to remain light, as the
latest NBM probabilities for greater than a tenth of an inch are
around 10-30%. In general, the limited moisture return may
result in a dry frontal passage for most of the area, with the
highest chances confined to along and west of Interstate 49.
Winds become north- northwest behind the frontal passage on
Thursday evening, with lows falling into the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

This Weekend:
Another longwave trough digs into the region this weekend, with
the jet stream remaining displaced south of the area. Thus,
drier weather looks likely through the weekend as well. As the
trough drops into the Southern Plains, cooler air filters into
the area, with highs more seasonable in the middle/upper 50s to
lower 60s. Meanwhile, this pattern will be accompanied by cooler
overnight temperatures, with widespread lows in the 30s expected
each morning. The growing season continues into early November
as captured in the latest MRCC Vegetation Freeze Susceptibility
Guidance, showing all of the area as still susceptible. For
this weekend, lows in the middle 30s and calm overnight winds
look to set the stage for frost. However, the greatest potential
for lows below freezing are currently focused across the
eastern Ozarks, where lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s looks
likely. The potential for frost/freeze headlines will continue
to be assessed as we approach this weekend.

Next Week:
As we get into early next week, a ridge looks to take hold over
the central and western CONUS. As mid-level heights increase, as
will the temperatures once again into mid-November. This
matches up well with CPC`s latest 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day
outlooks, highlighting increasing confidence in above normal
temperatures. NBM interquartile spreads continue to shrink, with
highs progged to return to the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is
anywhere from 5 to 10+ degrees above normal for early to mid
November. Drier conditions look to persist, which may amplify
the mid-Fall fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A system is gradually clearing the area overnight, with
lingering MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet. A few instances of IFR
may occur within areas of drizzle, with reduced visibilities
around 2 to 4 miles, in addition to ceilings around 900 feet.
Light areas of drizzle dissipate towards 12Z on Wednesday
morning.

Westerly winds persist through the period, with occasional
gusts up to 20 knots at KJLN and KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez