419
FXUS63 KSGF 221127
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for severe storms over southern portions of the
  area this afternoon and evening. Isolated 1 inch hail and 60
  mph winds are the greatest threats.

- Potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding Sunday
  night into early Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Thunderstorm chances and potential risks today:

Still quite a bit of model variability with respect to
convection today, including coverage, probabilities, and
instability. This lowers confidence and increases potential for
noteworthy changes to the forecast today.

Overall expecting shortwave energy (currently noted with
convection over northern Nebraska) to move into the later this
afternoon and evening. Given timing of arrival around peak
heating, there is concern for enough instability for severe
weather. However, model spread is pretty high with how the
instability picture looks this afternoon. Looking at HREF SBCAPE
probabilities of > 2,000 J/kg, values fall rapidly to 20-30% by
mid to late afternoon as drier air moves in ahead of the
shortwave. This dry air also seems to be diminishing convection
as it moves toward the area. More confidence exists in seeing
25-30 kts of deep layer shear. Overall think the NBM 20-40%
PoPs with a marginal SPC severe risk seems reasonable given the
uncertainty. Looking at an isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind
threat.

Otherwise look for highs to range from the mid 80s NE to the mid
90s (heat index values up to around 100) SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Sunday:

Models hint at some remnant precip late tonight into Sunday
morning, but the forecast is mostly dry at this time.
Temperatures and heat index values Sunday look similar to today.

Late Sunday into early Monday heavy rainfall and flooding
threat:

A strong upper ridge to the W will lead to relatively strong
upper level flow from the NW while models now generally agree on
a surface low over Oklahoma and 850mb trough from the northern
plains to over the surface low. This surface low leads to a
strong pressure gradient in the low levels, and a resulting SE
LLJ. At the same time, an 850mb front will be stalled over the
region (currently looking like the southwestern CWA, but limited
confidence in location), with elevated instability above the
front. This should result in convection in vicinity of the front.
The strong S-SE low level flow counters the upper level flow to
result in slow storm motions that are near parallel to the
850mb front, so also looking at potential for training storms.
Moisture transport from the Gulf of America will be strong with
the low level flow, resulting in PWAT values over 2 inches, as
shown by multiple models, which is 150-175% of normal. These
factors may lead to locally heavy rainfall and flooding, but
many factors need to come together for this. Uncertainty does
exist, including in the unusual situation of a surface low
sitting over Oklahoma in late August, the placement of the 850mb
front, the strength of the low level jet, and instability.
Currently, the NBM shows 50-60% PoPs over the southwestern CWA
and 30-50% elsewhere.

Through the rest of next week, we will see some low end chances
for showers and storms as we generally remain under NW flow
aloft. Predictability will generally be low for any precip
chances.

The pattern also keeps a temperature gradient across the area,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s NE to the mid to upper
90s (along with heat index values in the upper 90s to mid
100s) SW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

There is around a 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, but confidence is quite limited until a
potential incoming thunderstorm complex gets closer to the
area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus