955
FXUS63 KSGF 281900
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme heat continues across the area through this afternoon,
  with heat index values around 100 to 105. Heat headlines
  expire this evening, with more seasonable temperatures into
  mid to late week.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) through
  tonight, before additional chances (30-60%) overspread the
  area on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The highest
  shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) occur Thursday night
  through Friday. Localized heavy rainfall is possible.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures this weekend, with highs in the
  upper 70s to lower/middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today-Tonight:
An upper-level ridge continues to shift westward today, as the
area becomes situated on the eastern periphery. An upper-level
disturbance is translating around the top of the ridge and
sinking southeast through the region. This disturbance and an
associated frontal passage are responsible for a band of
dissipating showers across southeast KS into west central and
central MO. As we progress through the afternoon, this activity
may perk back up as it encounters better instability across
southern MO. However, that is a low confidence scenario with
many locations remaining dry through the afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile, hot and humid conditions remain persistent this
afternoon ahead of the frontal passage. Clouds and associated
precipitation will keep it bit cooler, particularly north of
Highway 60. Highs reach into the lower 90s north of Highway 60,
and middle to upper 90s south of Highway 60. With dewpoints into
the lower and middle 70s, heat index values will peak around 100
to 105, with some locations pushing towards 110 across far
southern MO. Heat headlines expire at 7pm this evening.

By later this evening into tonight, another disturbance
translates through northwest flow. Guidance depicts the presence
of some elevated instability, that will support an axis of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. In general,
this will be focused along a northwest to southeast orientation
from north central KS through northeast AR, or along and west of
Highway 65. While this activity is not expected to be
widespread in coverage, there may be a few instances of
localized heavy rainfall. Lows remain warm in the lower to
middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Wednesday-Friday:
Slightly cooler temperatures behind the frontal passage on
Wednesday, and lingering through Friday. Temperatures will range
from middle/upper 80s (east) to lower 90s (west). While
widespread extreme heat is not in the forecast, it is plausible
some locations push heat index values around 100 in southeast KS
into far southwest MO through the end of the week. However,
confidence is not high enough to issue any additional heat
headlines at this time. Otherwise, expect a few systems to
translate through the pattern mid to late week, with scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) returning Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. The coverage looks to remain
confined to a narrower corridor, with many locations remaining
dry. Dry time will be particularly prevalent through the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday and Thursday.

By Thursday night, a stronger shortwave trough ejects out of the
Northern Plains. Moisture return looks healthy (PWATs 1.8-2.0
inches) ahead of this next system and associated frontal
passage. Ensemble guidance trends suggest this system tracks a
bit further east than previous forecasts. There is still some
spread across the models and members, and thus lingering
uncertainty still exists on the exact timing and location of the
highest rain chances on Thursday night through Friday. For now,
the highest chances (40-70%) are focused across the north and
eastern portions of the area. A strong thunderstorm wind gust or
two is possible within any bands/clusters, though confidence
remains low. An additional hazard of focus is the potential for
localized heavy rainfall. Anywhere that realizes repeated
thunderstorms over the same locations in a short period of time
may be subject to flash flooding. This activity lingers across
the area through Friday night, before gradually shifting out of
the area on Saturday.

Saturday-Monday:
Much cooler on Saturday behind the frontal passage, with
unseasonably cool temperatures in the forecast. The latest NBM
guidance depicts highs ranging from upper 70s to lower/middle
80s. Lows dip into the lower to middle 60s. This prevails into
Sunday as well, with an upper level low meandering over the
region. Low isolated shower chances (10-20%) exist this weekend,
though coverage would be limited. Temperatures look to
gradually warm back up into early next week with a building
ridge to the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A frontal boundary is moving through the area, with dissipating
showers sinking south this afternoon. The extent of coverage is
expected to remain limited, thus PROB30 groups are being
utilized. A few instances of MVFR flight conditions may
accompany the low rain chances. Additional scattered showers
and thunderstorm chances this evening into the overnight. Light
north winds at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon with the frontal
passage, turning more east-northeast into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-089.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ082-
     083-088-090>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez