689
FXUS63 KSGF 171154
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
654 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather and Slight risk for
  excessive rainfall (2/4) today. Main threats are damaging wind
  gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rainfall with those slowly moving storms.

- Non-severe thunderstorms on Friday mainly east of I-49. A 15%
  chance for pop-up thunderstorms over the far east this
  weekend. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall are likely where
  storms do form.

- Temperatures gradually increase into the low to mid 90s
  through the weekend, with maximum heat index values up to
  100-105 degrees. By the middle of next week, high temperatures
  in the mid to upper 90s are possible, along with maximum heat
  index values up to around 105. Heat headlines may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Most of the convection associated with the cold front has stayed
over central MO and hasn`t quite made it into our area yet.
Though, high clouds have moved into our northern counties due to
the thunderstorms over KCMO. The front will slowly push south
through today bringing widespread thunderstorm chances (40-70%) by
late morning. Most of the area is in a Slight risk (2/4) for
excessive rainfall and a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather
today. Biggest threats with these storms are damaging
wind gusts and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The
threat of flooding is mostly due to the slow movement of these
thunderstorms and how moist the environment is at this time.
The isolated damaging wind threat comes from the possibility of
wet microbursts occurring today as well. Isolated pockets of
strong winds usually accompany wet microbursts as the air
rapidly descends within the thunderstorm bringing along heavy
rainfall to the surface too.

So far this system has produced 2-2.5"/hr rainfall rates over
the KC metro and has produced isolated 76 mph winds. This
behavior could be quite similar as it moves its way south later
today. As mentioned previously, these storms seem to stick over
one area for awhile and drop an abundance of rain. KCMO
received around 3-5" last night with more currently falling.

The front becomes stationary tonight and hangs out over central
MO. Though, the rain chances start to diminish as the front
loses a bit of steam. LLJ over central KS/OK could help to
initiate a few showers west of Highway 65 tonight, though
models aren`t too keen on this scenario occurring. Kept a 20-30%
chance of rain overnight in that area to account for this
solution.

Highs for today will be in the mid to upper 80s with the cooler
temperatures occurring over central MO where the clouds will
hangout for most of the day. The warmest temperatures will occur
furthest away from the front near the MO/AR border. The cloud
cover will help our heat indices stay mostly in the 90s. Tonight
will be warm and muggy again with lows in the lower 70s with
mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Friday will start out with isolated to scattered non-severe
showers and storms. The highest chance for rain (40-60%) will be
east of I-49 as the front begins to push east out of the area.
Look for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index
values up to 100-105.

This weekend will see some 15% PoPs over the eastern CWA as
upper ridging pushes in from the west, limited precip chances
closer to the ridge. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with
max heat index values of 100-105, with the hottest temperatures
near the MO/AR border.

By the middle of next week, an upper high will move over the
area, leading to a mostly rain free forecast. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 90s with max heat index values of 100-110.
Heat headlines may be needed this weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

There will be brief periods of MVFR as heavy rainfall occurs
throughout the day. A cold front will move through the area
today bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the next
hour or two. Main threats are heavy rainfall and damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph. Winds will be light and mostly out of the
southwest and may become gusty in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria