390
FXUS63 KSGF 171026
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
526 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat returns to southwestern portions of the area Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Thunderstorm potential Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
  then again Wednesday evening into early Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft returns to the area behind yesterday`s
system as an upper level ridge builds back up over the western CONUS
with the upper High centered over portions of TX/OK. The cold front
that swept through yesterday evening shifted winds out of the north,
which will usher in relatively cooler temperatures than what we`ve
experienced over the past several days. As of 230AM,
observations show most places ranging in the 70s, with localized
areas still around 80 degrees. Temps will continue to drop a few
more degrees, with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 70s and
even the upper 60s for some.

We`ll see a noticeable difference in afternoon highs from yesterday,
as many will range in the 80s (this is 15-20 degrees cooler than
yesterday for many). Some locations closer to the MO/AR border and
far southeast KS could reach the low 90s, however this comes with a
little less certainty, as cloud cover (or the lack thereof) will
play a major role. High-res guidance has backed off of precipitation
chances compared to previous forecasts, with any pops remaining
below 10%. This would support fewer clouds and the increased
temperatures in the 90s. As such, areas over the southern CWA could
see heat index values into the upper 90s to low 100s.

Later tonight, winds will begin to shift ahead of the returned
southerly flow on Tuesday, however not before ushering in the
"coolest" night we`ve seen in a while. With only few to scattered
clouds over the area, overnight lows will drop into the 60s (for
most) to low 70s (southeast KS/southwest MO).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

As mentioned above, southerly flow returns on Tuesday, ushering in a
hotter airmass to our southwestern CWA once again. Generally,
Tuesday and Wednesday will bring high temperatures ranging between
95-105 along/southwest of a line from Nevada to Springfield to West
Plains (heat index values between 100-110 degrees), to 85-95 degrees
northeast of that line (heat indices of 95-100).

With the return of northwesterly flow aloft, we start to see some MCS
pattern potential Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which could
bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. The better
severe potential looks to remain north of the area over northern
MO/northern KS/NE/IA, however we`ll need to monitor any potential
for this to shift further south. As it stands currently, the best
chances (50-60%) for showers/storms look to be between midnight and
7AM Wednesday morning for areas generally north of Highway 60.

An upper level shortwave then looks to begin pushing through the
region late Wednesday into Thursday, with an associated cold front
moving through the area. This will be another focus for
shower/thunderstorm chances (50-70%), with some guidance suggesting
severe potential existing with this convection. An increased
capping inversion may hinder any severe chances, however with
this still being multiple days out, confidence in any details
remains low at this point, so we`ll just need to continue
monitoring future guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF
period. Surface winds have shifted out of the north behind a
frontal passage from last evening, with sustained winds between
5-10kts today, becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto