436
FXUS63 KSGF 291000
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
500 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will occur across the area today
  and Wednesday, and possibly across the eastern portions of the
  area on Thursday. Highs today will warm into the mid to upper
  80s with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Wednesday.
  Some record highs may be approached on Wednesday.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms (70 to 95% chances) are
  expected Wednesday night into Friday. There will be the
  potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A warmer air mass will advect into the area with above normal
temperatures occurring today. Highs will warm into the middle
to upper 80s across much of the area this afternoon. Slightly
more cloud cover could occur across the far western portions of
the area where low to mid 80s are still expected. There is a
low chance for an isolated shower and may be a rumble of thunder
to occur across the far northwestern portions of the area this
afternoon/evening as lift within the warm air advection and
slight better moisture combine. The better chances for this
activity will remain to the northwest of the area and most if
not all of the area should remain dry today. Southerly winds
will occur today and some gusts up to around 20 mph will be
possible at times today mainly west of Highway 65.

Lows tonight into Wednesday morning will range from the lower
60s across south central Missouri to around 70 across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri as the warmer
air mass remains in place.

The warmer air mass will remain in place across the area on
Wednesday as 850mb temps warm into the upper teens Celsius.
Highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s
which will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal and may approach
some record highs across portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

An upper level low is currently digging into the southwestern
U.S. early this morning. The low will continue to slowly dig to
the southwest today into Wednesday then will start to lift to
the northeast into the central Plains Wednesday night into
Thursday. The Low will then slow and open into a trough then
move east through the area on Friday. Moisture will start to
advect north into the area ahead of the system and the remnants
of Hurricane Polo will also merge into the upper level low also
increasing moisture levels with the system.

As the upper level low start to lift northeast Wednesday night,
bands of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
trough across portions of Texas and Oklahoma and lift
northeast, moving into the area late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Some weak elevated instability will develop
along and west of I-49 late Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night so some scattered showers and storms will be possible
overnight Wednesday ahead of these bands of showers and storms.
The storm motion will be to the northeast and the lift will
remain across the western portions of the area through a good
portions of the day on Thursday as the low remains west of the
area. Therefore, bands of showers and storms will likely develop
and occur at times from Wednesday night and much of Thursday
mainly west of Highway 65. Later Thursday into Thursday night
the now trough will start to move east and the showers and
storms will start to move east across the rest of the area
into Friday morning. The rain will not remain over the eastern
portions of the area as long as they will west of Highway 65
where the heaviest rainfall is expected. With the increase
moisture precipitable water values will increase to around 2",
which is high for this time of year. Therefore, the showers and
storms will be efficient rain producers and where training can
occur heavy rainfall will occur. Models continue to indicate
the potential for bands of 2 to 3" of rainfall occurring across
portions of the area mainly west of Highway 65, with locally
heavier amounts possible where training of storms can occur.
Amounts east of Highway 65 are generally expected to be up to 1
to 2".

The slow movement of the system on Thursday will likely keep
the eastern portions of the area dry until later in the day.
Across the western portions of the area, rain will likely occur
at times through much of the day. As a result highs are
expected to warm into the middle to upper 80s across the eastern
Ozarks on Thursday again well above normal for this time of year.
Temperatures across the west within the rain, will likely not
warm much with highs in the 70s occurring. Southerly winds will
occur again on Wednesday and some gusts up to around 30mph will
be possible at times. As the system move east Thursday there
could be the potential for some strong storms mainly along and
south of I-44 Thursday afternoon and evening with gusty winds
the main risk.

A cold front will move south through the area on Friday, the
upper level trough will also be moving east across the area
leading to some scattered showers and a few storms occurring
along the front Friday into Friday night. There are still some
timing differences on how fast the front pushes south of the
area, from as early as Friday night to as late as during the
day on Saturday. Overall, the models are trending drier for
this weekend after the front pushes south of the area Friday
night into Saturday. Cooler conditions will occur behind the
front with highs in the upper 60s into the 70s this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period with increasing mid and high clouds across the area today
into tonight. Southeasterly winds will occur early in the TAF
period before becoming more southerly later this morning into
this afternoon, returning to southeasterly this evening into
tonight. Could see some gusts at times this morning into this
afternoon at times. Rain chances remain less than 10 percent
through the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 30:
KSGF: 91/1979
KJLN: 93/1952
KVIH: 93/2023
KUNO: 92/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Wise