861
FXUS63 KSGF 151931
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
131 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures are in jeopardy across the area
  today, as temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal.
  Temperatures then drop into the 60s for Sunday then back well
  above normal for Tuesday.

- 30-40% rain chances on Monday east of Highway 65, with less
  rain chances (10-20%) west of Highway 65.

- Higher rain chances (>60%) then return for Wednesday and
  Thursday as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
  be possible across portions of area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the ridge across the central/southern US
beginning to start to slide south as shortwave energy moves
through the northern plains. A strong upper low was still
centered off the California coast. A very warm and dry mid level
airmass was located over the area. The 12z KSGF sounding
measured a 850mb temp of 19C which is near the daily record. A
strong elevated mixed layer/capping inversion was also present
which is why low/mid level clouds have been almost non
existent. There are some passing high clouds however temps so
far have been able to reach the upper 70s to around 80 across
most of the area.

A cold front was currently moving south towards the area and was
located from Kansas City to Wichita. Cooler temps and dews
followed behind this front. A secondary front was located
across the Dakotas and Minnesota and it had even drier air that
was moving southeast towards the region.

This afternoon through tonight: The first front will continue
moving into the area and will gradually switch winds to the
north with dropping temps and dewpoints. Low temps tonight
should drop into the 40s with a north wind and mostly clear
skies.

Sunday: A surface high pressure axis associated with that
secondary front and much drier air will slide southeast into
Iowa and Illinois. Northeast low level winds will usher in a
much drier airmass however it may not affect the entire area.
Dewpoints in the 20s and 30s are likely across most of the area
however areas further west may not drop as low. This will cause
humidity values to drop down into the 25-35% range however the
surface winds should remain less than 15kts. HREF guidance and
forecast soundings suggests mostly sunny skies with highs in
the 60s across the area. Locations near Rolla could stay closer
to 60 while areas south of Joplin may reach 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Monday: Ensembles are in decent agreement that the energy
currently off the California coast will eventually move through
the rockies and into Nebraska on Monday. Surface low pressure
looks to develop over Kansas with a front moving towards the
area. Winds ahead of the system will likely be out of the
southeast as the high pressure departs therefore some low level
moisture will attempt to return. A narrow tongue of 55deg dews
does look to move back into the area however not until Monday
night therefore moisture quality is in question with this
system. There is a signal of mean MU CAPE`s approaching 1000jkg
therefore if enough moisture can arrive in time then a few
thunderstorms could occur, especially east of Highway 65. These
thunderstorms, if they occur would likely be elevated in nature
which typically features small hail. Otherwise a decent spread
in temps looks to occur Monday with highs around 60 east of
Springfield and highs around 70 near Joplin.

Tuesday: Ensembles have also converged on increasing mid level
heights and temps for Tuesday behind the passing mid level wave
and ahead of the next system. Mean 850mb temps look to increase
back into the 14-16C range which would support highs in the 70s
again and some high temp records may again be in jeopardy.

Wednesday through Friday: A strong upper level trough looks to
move into the southwest US on Wednesday, with a neutral to
positively tilted structure. This would put the area in
southwest flow aloft which in turn would allow for higher
moisture to move into the area along a baroclinic zone. Latest
ensemble means suggest PW values around 1.25inch which is near
the 90th percentile. The latest ECMWF EFI Shift of Tails tool
suggests the potential for an anomalously high precip event
somewhere in the Oklahoma/Arkansas/Missouri region where
multiple rounds of rainfall occur. While the first round of
rainfall could occur as early as Wednesday, there are
indications that the heavier rounds could occur on Thursday as
the system begins to take on more of a negative tilt and ejects
northeast closer to the area. Latest NBM guidance has a 40-60%
chance of the area receiving at least 2 inches of rainfall with
this system. The exact footprint of the heaviest rainfall will
not be resolved until we get into higher resolution model
guidance time ranges early next week.

Looking at any severe potential, this type of setup is messy as
instability typically suffers with so much qpf. The joint
probabilities for surface based cape over 500j/kg and wind
shear over 30kts favors/is highest across Oklahoma and Arkansas
and not our area. However, if the system shifts north then
these probs would likely increase for the area and it will be
something we monitor over the coming days. Otherwise the above
normal temps should continue with highs in the 60s and 70s
depending on cloud cover/precip.

Ensemble variance is quite high beyond Thursday as another piece
of energy moves into the southwest US. We could see a few
drier/cooler days before this system moves in for next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will persist through the
TAF period with passing high clouds. There will be a wind shift
to the west this afternoon and then north this evening. Winds
will be the strongest this afternoon and then decreasing
tonight. No precipitation is expected through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

For context, average high temps for middle
November are in the 57-60 degree range.


Record High Temperatures:

November 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955
KUNO: 81/1955

November 18:
KSGF: 78/1930
KJLN: 76/1999
KVIH: 74/1981
KUNO: 74/2017

November 19:
KJLN: 75/1950

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield