718
FXUS63 KSGF 161126
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
626 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area through
  Friday. Highs in the 90s with heat index values of 100-105 can
  be expected. Overnight lows will only drop into the 70s.
  Several daily records may be tied or broken.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon
  with up to 20% chance. Most will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

High pressure continues to dominate over the Tennessee Valley with
shortwave energy traversing the western and northern edges, all the
way from the Gulf of California across the Plains and up through the
Great Lakes. The Ozarks sit just far enough south of this energy to
miss out on the precipitation, though much of northern Missouri are
seeing a good wetting rain tonight. The responsible surface front
has almost made its way to the I-44 corridor as of about 3 a.m., but
as it has dropped south it has encountered a reduction in
precipitable water, MLCIN, and of course becoming displaced from the
shortwave energy. RAP 925mb analysis depicts the diffusion of the
front with considerable agreement among the CAMs that it will stall
out over southern Missouri soon. Observations behind the front in
the northwestern portions of the area are in the low to mid 70s with
current temperatures around 80 ahead of the front, so some early
risers may be blessed with a slightly cooler morning before the
unseasonal heating starts up again with the sunrise this morning.
Unfortunately for the rest of us, the front will likely not
clear completely to the Arkansas border. In any case, the
precipitation has been left well behind it.

Expecting another hot day today as the Heat Advisory continues
through the end of the week. Highs near 100 are expected with Heat
Index values several degrees higher. There is a consistent signal
for some pop-up showers and storms along a corridor from roughly
Barry northeast through Phelps county this afternoon. HREF
paintballs even indicate this potential over a larger area. These
would be primarily driven by free convection from the surface due to
extremely high daytime temperatures that allow parcels to realize
the 1-2k+ J/Kg of CAPE throughout the afternoon profile. With
practically no shear, severe storms are not a concern (the Ozarks
Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index tops out at 10-12). This potential
spans the whole afternoon, from whenever surface temperatures warm
sufficiently to overcome the cap (looking to be around noon) until
warming ceases with sunset. These popcorn-like cells, should they be
realized, will be small and scattered. Most will not see
precipitation. PoPs will be limited to around 20%.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The Heat Advisory is valid through Friday evening. The synoptic high
pressure does not look to release its grip on the southeast and
southern Plains this week, in fact retrograding slightly to more
firmly place the Ozarks under its influence. Highs are expected in
the 90s the remainder of the week, somewhere between 10 to even 20
degrees above normal for this time of year. Lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s are also much higher than normal lows in the mid 50s. A
large swath of the area is under Extreme HeatRisk with almost
everywhere under at least Major.

A strong low pressure that is actually sitting over the Pacific
northwest currently may be the bowling ball we need to knock the
persistent high pressure out of its place. Ensembles are suggesting
a synoptic pattern change by early next week with a frontal passage,
cooler temperatures, and maybe even some widespread rain. While
there is uncertainty on exact details at this lead time, there
does appear to be some hope on the horizon with even 75th
percentile highs in the 80s and widespread PoPs 30-50%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Some passing high cloud cover
in central MO at the start of the period will give way to clear
skies until fair weather Cu begin developing with the heat of
the day. Less than 20% chance for SGF and BBG to be impacted by
small pulse thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 16:
KSGF: 95/1980
KJLN: 98/1954
KVIH: 96/1954
KUNO: 99/1980

September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
KVIH: 97/1953
KUNO: 97/1953

September 18:
KSGF: 95/2019
KJLN: 97/2022
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972

September 19:
KSGF: 96/1954
KJLN: 99/2024
KUNO: 97/1954

September 20:
KSGF: 97/1954
KVIH: 95/1954
KUNO: 97/1954

September 21:
KUNO: 95/1955


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 16:
KSGF: 73/1927

September 17:
KSGF: 73/1978

September 18:
KSGF: 74/1931

September 19:
KSGF: 73/1931

September 20:
KSGF: 74/2018

September 21:
KSGF: 73/1931

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson
CLIMATE...Burchfield