494
FXUS63 KSGF 231700
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1100 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 10 AM this morning for
  southeast Kansas into west-central and southwest Missouri.
  Visibilities as low as one quarter to one half mile at times.

- Widespread rain chances (60-90%) return late tonight through
  Monday. Highest amounts expected across portions of southern
  Missouri, around a half inch to an inch.

- Below average temperatures by mid-week into Thanksgiving.
  Highs in the 40s to near 50, and lows in the middle 20s to
  lower 30s.

- Seasonable temperatures in the 50s next weekend, with
  increasing confidence in additional rain chances (40-70%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

This morning:
Satellite imagery continues to depict an area of low stratus
persisting across much of the area early this morning. With
low- level moisture in place, stratus is likely to build down.
This will support widespread areas of fog developing through
sunrise, with reduced visibilities around a quarter to a half
mile. Most guidance highlights the extent of the fog from
southeast KS into southwest and central MO. For this reason, a
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10 AM this morning. Lows
bottom out in the 40s.

Today-Monday:
As we progress through the late morning into the afternoon,
clouds will gradually dissipate with subtle mid-level height
rises associated with some ridging. Highs this afternoon climb
into the lower 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. Additionally,
drier weather is expected through much of today ahead of the
next trough and associated system building out of the Baja/Four
Corners region.

This upper- level trough is progged to build into the Southern
Plains by tonight, with increasing moisture ahead of it. PWATs
push towards 0.75 to 1.00 inch as we head into tonight and
Monday, setting the stage with ample moisture as PVA overspreads
the area. This will support scattered showers increasing in
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Monday morning.
Rain chances (60-90%) are highest Monday morning through Monday
evening, with the greatest coverage south of Interstate 44.
With more CAMs coming into focus, there has been some subtle
shifts to be noted in the forecast. Particularly, the shift in
the axis of heaviest rainfall amounts further south of the area
through central AR. As a result, rainfall amounts have trended
downward in the area south of Interstate 44. Additionally, the
chances for any embedded thunderstorms are very low (10-15%) and
suggest more showers than anything. NBM probabilities for
greater than a half inch of rain remain highest towards the
MO/AR border, around 40-70%. This area could see a few pockets
of 0.75 to 1.0 inch. Otherwise, rainfall amounts are expected to
taper off further north, closer to a quarter to a half inch. As
a result, no flooding is expected with this system. Any
rainfall received will remain beneficial to ongoing drought
conditions. Breezy southerly winds accompany highs in the 50s to
near 60 on Monday as rain moves through the area. There will be
some periods of dry time, with rain chances tapering off from
west to east overnight Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tuesday-Friday:
By Tuesday, the early week system slides east of the region with
a cold front progged to translate through the Middle Mississippi
Valley. This cold front is tied to a passing trough across the
north, ushering in a cooler airmass for mid week. This will
support highs in the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday, and
overnight lows in the middle to upper 20s. The cooler weather
will be accompanied by mostly dry weather through mid to late
week. This includes the Thanksgiving Holiday next Thursday, with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Next Weekend:
By next weekend, confidence is a bit lower with regards to
temperatures, as NBM interquartile spreads remain 10 degrees or
greater. For the time being, the forecast is leaning towards
seasonable to slightly below average temperatures. Meanwhile,
the upper- level pattern appears to become more active,
supporting the return of rain chances next weekend. The latest
ensemble guidance suggest rain chances (40-70%) to increase
Friday night into Saturday. Additional rain chances look to
persist through Sunday. It does not appear we will be cold
enough to support wintry precipitation, but we will monitor
closely over the next week with remaining uncertainties in the
temperature forecast into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The widespread low stratus that has been blanketing the entire
region will clear from south to north across southern Missouri
at the start of the TAF period, bringing a period of VFR
conditions to the terminals through the afternoon and evening.
Additional fog may develop again tonight, but the best signal
looks to be across the eastern Ozarks, so no mention of fog was
included in the 18Z TAFs.

An upper-level disturbance will approach from the west overnight
into Monday morning, bringing chances for light to moderate
rain and the return of MVFR to IFR ceilings. The chance of
lightning with this activity is low (10-20%) and was omitted
from the TAFs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Didio