231
FXUS63 KSGF 122007
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
207 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Geomagnetic Storm Watch remains in effect. Many areas could see
  the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) tonight. Some impacts
  may occur to GPS and communications.

- Above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected
  through Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average). Record high
  temperatures are in jeopardy Friday and Saturday.

- Though details are uncertain, 30-40% chances for rain are in
  the forecast for next Monday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show the area in a northwest flow
pattern ahead of a ridge across the Rockies. The 12z KSGF
sounding continues to show a dry airmass in place with a PW
value of 0.34in. Clear skies and dry air has allowed for temps
to warm close to the NBM 95th percentile with many areas
reaching the lower 70s as of 2pm. Relative humidity values were
low again however light and variable winds have kept the fire
danger limited. On the solar front, a Geomagnetic Storm Watch
remains in effect.

This afternoon through tonight: Mostly clear skies look to last
through late evening before mid and high level clouds slowly
move in after midnight. The latest HREF guidance suggests the
thicker cloud cover waits until closer to sunrise. Given the
dry air and light winds, temps should rapidly fall off this
evening however winds will slowly switch around to the south
after midnight. Therefore temps may level off or slowly increase
closer to morning. Most locations should again drop into the
upper 30s to lower 40s with the colder areas in valleys and wind
protected areas.

Thursday: 850mb warm air advection looks to occur with temps in
the 10-12C range. Conditional climatology suggests that highs
could reach the lower 70s. However the latest HREF and
inspection of forecast sounding data shows some decent cloud
cover in the 250-400mb layer that could limit these high temps.
Surface dewpoints will also be on the increase with HREF mean
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s across the area by the afternoon
and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Friday through Saturday: Confidence continues to increase that
warm and near record breaking high temps will occur as the mid
level ridge increases and expands over the central US. Friday`s
mean 850mb temps of 12-15C would support highs well into the
70s. Latest ensemble data then shows the potential for 850mb
temps to reach 15-18C on Saturday which is close to the 95th
percentile. Latest ensemble soundings suggest minimal cloud
cover on Friday however there could be an increase in high
clouds Saturday. Depending on the extent of cloud cover, temps
could reach the upper 70s to perhaps 80 degrees which are near
record territory (see climate section below). A steady southwest
wind will assist with these warm temps and will need to monitor
dewpoint trends for Saturday as any deep mixing could lower
dews and RH`s. To provide additional context, average high
temps for middle November are in the 57-60 degree range.

Sunday through Tuesday: Ensemble variance continues to be high
with respect to the overall synoptic pattern late in the weekend
and into early next week. The main culprit continues to be the upper
low off that slows and spins off the California coast Saturday.
Ensemble cluster analysis shows differing scenarios with
respect to the timing and location of this low as it ejects out
into the rockies sometime early next week. There has been a
trend of a slower and weaker wave as it moves out however until
the system gets sampled there will likely be several flip flops
in location and timing. Right now the ensembles suggest that
Sunday would be dry with that slower solution with 30-40% chance
rain chances Monday when the system finally moves out into the
central US.

Worth noting is both the CPC and the CIPS extended analogs both
favor above average temps and above average precip potential
for early to mid next week. Furthermore the CPC hazards outlook
now has the area in a slight to moderate risk (20-60% chance) of
heavy precipitation centered around the middle of next week (Nov
20). This is when we could see a stronger system eject out into
the plains within a deeper southwest flow pattern. However we
should caution that ensemble variance is high in this period so
expect changes as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. Skies will remain mostly clear until early Thursday
morning when high clouds will move in from the northwest. Winds
will remain less than 10kts out of the west to northwest until
Thursday morning when they turn southerly. No precipitation is
expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 14:
KSGF: 78/1973
KJLN: 79/1964
KVIH: 75/1960
KUNO: 79/1999

November 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield