591
FXUS63 KSGF 262312
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
612 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures the next few days. Isolated to
  scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder this weekend,
  mainly west of Highway 65. Rainfall amounts generally less
  than 0.50 inches, with some areas staying dry.

- A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (50-80%
  chance) looks to occur next week, with the greatest chance of
  occurrence during the middle to end of the week. There will be
  the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this
  system, but confidence is still limited at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Missouri is currently seeing broken sun through mostly stratus cover
as an elevated area of low pressure spins through northeast Kansas.
This mesoscale feature has supported light rain showers through
eastern Kansas that have moved into western Missouri as they
continue to diminish. The instability and moisture gradient
lies almost perfectly along the Missouri/Kansas border, which is
evident by the quick reduction in magnitude and coverage of the
rain as it moves east. Very light accumulations are expected
with this activity, and it is not expected to survive east of
Hwy 65.

Expecting highs to stay on the lower end of previous expectations
today with the amount of cloud cover, especially west of Hwy 65.
Should top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, warmest in areas that
see more sun (along and east of Hwy 65). Another disturbance will
move southeast through the region tonight into Sunday morning,
bringing more widespread rain chances, but the best chances will
again be west of Hwy 65 where better instability and moisture set
up. There may be a few embedded rumbles of thunder, but severe
weather is not expected. Rainfall totals will remain under half an
inch with this activity, with most areas seeing much less.

Rain slowly comes to an end throughout Sunday morning as the
shortwave energy weakens. Highs Sunday will be much like today with
a similar amount of cloud cover. Very isolated light showers may
linger into the afternoon. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s through
the weekend (warmer to the west, closer to the apex of the
ridge).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Early next week, a deep cutoff low swings through the southwest,
pushing the crest of the weak ridge through the Ozarks. This will
allow for highs to warm a few degrees for Monday, into the low 80s
for most of the area. By Tuesday, we lie in a southeast flow regime,
directly in the path of shortwave energy that is shed from the
approaching low. Moisture is pulled into the Plains by this low,
aided by a dying Hurricane Polo that begins to Fujiwara with it
and is eventually absorbed into the circulation. This dynamic
is set to bring a substantial rain event to the southwestern
portion of the country. For us, it manifests as a classic
midlatitude system that will hopefully have the chops to bring
some relief to the drought- stricken areas of the Ozarks.

Shortwave energy forces scattered precipitation as early at
Tuesday primarily north of I-44, but the passage of the warm
front overnight places us securely in the warm sector through
the day Wednesday, bringing widespread PoPs 40-70% (for now).
The system looks to stall over Missouri for a while, keeping
PoPs above 50% and as high as 80% through Friday morning. The
front does not appear to be in a hurry to leave. Anywhere from 2
inches (south central Missouri) to 4 inches (west central
Missouri) of rain are expected from Tuesday to Friday. For some
context, the NBM 72-hour QPF probabilities (Tuesday 7am through
Friday 7am) indicate a 50-90% chance of at least 1 inch, 30-80%
chance of at least 2 inches, and 15-60% chance of at least 3
inches (lower probabilities south central Missouri, higher
probabilities west central Missouri). Portions of the Ozarks
have been included in the Weather Prediction Center`s Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Light rain showers continue to push across the area, primarily
affecting KSGF and KBBG over the next couple hours. More
widespread rain is expected after midnight. There`s a low chance
for some embedded thunderstorms, however low confidence in
coverage led to this potential to not be mentioned in the TAFs
for this issuance. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with
brief MVFR possible with any rain showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Melto