750
FXUS63 KSGF 310916
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
416 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong to severe
  storms today and Monday. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail to
  the size of quarters are the primary hazards, though a
  conditional tornado threat cannot be ruled out this evening.

- Flash flooding will continue to be a concern in any areas that
  receive heavy downpours over the next two days, with recent
  rains increasing likelihood of localized flash flooding.

- Warm and humid conditions on Monday with heat index values in
  the 90s.

- Mostly dry conditions through the work week, with better rain
  chances returning next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Early Sunday morning, a series of dynamic surface lows are
located along the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. A dryline
extends south from a low in western Kansas through western
Texas, with a stationary front extending southeast off the low
through northeast Oklahoma all the way to the Carolina Coast.
A surface pressure trough extends southeast from another
surface low in the Black Hills, stretching across the Missouri
Valley and into the Missouri Bootheel. This pressure
trough/quasi-stationary boundary has been the primary axis for
weakly organized convection overnight amidst a broad warm air
advection regime.

A weak upper-level trough over Montana will slowly become cut
off through the day today, and ridging aloft will continue
building northward through the Plains through the day today and
into the work week. This will be the beginning of a persistent
500mb/300mb omega block-like (not actually blocked, but taking
the same shape as an omega block) pattern that will persist
into midweek, with troughing on the west and east coasts and
ridging through the central CONUS.

Well-saturated conditions at the surface will allow for patchy
fog development again this morning, though winds will generally
mitigate dense fog potential to localized areas, specifically
low-lying areas.

Despite ridging building aloft, the low-level pattern keeps us
in everything but a quiet, predictable stretch of weather. A
very warm and moist airmass is in place across the central US,
with dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s stretching from the
Texas Coast northward through eastern Nebraska. Southerly flow
throughout the Plains will continue to sustain this large plume
of warm, moist advection through today, which will increase
instability to 2000-4000 J/kg of CAPE across our area by 00Z
tonight. Bulk shear also improves through the day to above
30kts.

Models aren`t even initializing convection properly so take them
with a grain of salt (welcome to MCS season), but the potential
scenarios of evolution they hint at for today are some mix of
the following (in no particular order): scattered storm
development through the morning and into the afternoon, overall
dissolution of the early AM stuff and a dry period all afternoon
into this evening, a mostly dry morning with isolated
redevelopment this afternoon, and upscale storm development
to our north/west moves into the area very late tonight.

Lack of synoptic forcing should keep storms fairly disorganized
through at least this evening. However, between the sfc
pressure trough to our north, the stationary front to our south,
the subtle isentropic ascent from the southerly winds, and the
outflow boundaries that will be left behind by morning
convection, current forecast hedges that there will be ample
mesoscale sources of lift to push towards the "isolated to
scattered showers and storms most of the day today" solution.
2000+ J/kg of CAPE will be available by the time the cap breaks
around 10-11am.

The ingredients don`t line up perfectly spatially for severe
weather this afternoon and evening, so the risk is quite
conditional, but there will be a threat for damaging winds up
to 70 mph and hail up to the size of quarters with any storms
that form. Tornado threat is low but not zero, with low-level
shear remaining rather meager until just before sunset, and storms
should become elevated fairly quickly after sunset as the
nocturnal inversion develops. Damaging winds will likely
dominate as the primary hazard type considering 1000-2000 J/kg
of DCAPE and the mid-level dry air.

Flash flooding will also remain a concern anywhere that storms
can form. We are saturated from the recent rains, and anywhere
that sees downpours associated with these efficient rain-
producing storms will be at risk for flooding, especially if a
clustered mode results in multiple storms moving over the same
area in a short period of time.

With so much uncertainty in evolution this afternoon and
evening, the forecast gets muddy fast as we progress into
tonight and Monday. Better instability and theta-e to our north
and west would promote a more organized storm mode with a
stronger, more dominant cold pool if storms can find a mechanism
of lift in northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri this evening.
Northwest flow aloft would advect the potential MCS into our
area late tonight into Monday morning, which could bring another
round of severe weather.

The potential MCS will have dramatic implications on Monday`s
evolution. It could wash out the environment early and prevent
additional redevelopment in the afternoon, or it could dissipate
as it arrives, leaving an outflow boundary behind without
washing out the environment, which would increase severe weather
potential. While the environment isn`t quite as favorable on
Monday for severe weather as it is today, there is still enough
shear and instability present that a low severe weather risk is
maintained for Monday as well.

Southerly low-level flow keeps the heat coming, with
temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and low 90s this
afternoon and again Monday. The muggy air mass will bring heat
indices into the 90s both days.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

The omega-like upper-level pattern persists into at least
midweek, with ridging likely resulting in mostly dry conditions
through much of the week after Tuesday (PoPs 20% or less). Would
not be surprised if global models are not yet picking up on more
subtle low-level features that would suggest slightly higher
PoPs (perhaps some pulse storms) in the afternoon, but the
highest chances push past us after Tuesday as the ridge-riders
move east with the ridge as it expands into midweek.

Global ensembles and AI models still suggest the pattern
breaking down late in the week, but very little else to be
gleaned from recent long-range models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Not a clear cut forecast. Most likely outcome is predominantly
VFR conditions through the period. The two factors that would
impact prevailing VFR are 1) isolated to scattered
showers/storms, and 2) decreased visibility from BR/low stratus,
mostly at KBBG but maybe also KSGF.

Storms: isolated to scattered development/redevelopment through
the AM hours. Low confidence in impacts to TAF sites due to
limited coverage of storms. MVFR visibility possible within any
storms due to heavy rainfall. Very low (<20%) chance of
additional scattered showers and storms during the afternoon
Sunday.

Visibility/BR: the low levels are very saturated, and similar to
last night, visibility reductions due to mist/patchy fog will be
possible. Far lower confidence in magnitude of reductions, with
IFR conditions unlikely to be reached (<15% chance) due to
stronger winds, but MVFR expected for at least a few hours at
KBBG due to terrain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden