254
FXUS63 KSGF 111024
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
524 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning across portions of southeast KS,
  southwest MO, and into central MO through Wednesday. Daily
  heat index values around 105. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory is
  in effect for daily heat index values around 100 to 104.

- Mostly dry conditions are now expected through the end of the
  week and weekend.

- Confidence is increasing in the extension of heat headlines on
  Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show an elongated upper level high
pressure axis across the southern US. Low and mid level temps
remain warm over the area however an axis of much warmer 850mb
temps remains west of the area across Oklahoma and Kansas. The
850mb low level jet remained slightly farther west than last
night with clear skies over the area. Temps remain
quite mild overnight with many areas in the upper 70s to lower
80s under steady south winds.

Hot and Dry Conditions Today: Similar conditions to yesterday
are expected with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds. Temps
may end up 1-2 degrees higher than yesterday, especially in
areas that are beginning to dry out. Latest NBM and high res
guidance shows highs in the upper 90s to around 100 west of
Springfield with middle/upper 90s expected elsewhere. Dewpoints
have been slowly dropping 1-2 degrees each day in the afternoons
and expect that trend to continue today. With air temps
increasing a few degrees, heat indicies around 100 are expected
in the advisory area with a few 105 degree readings across the
warning area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Prolonged Heat Continues: Latest ensembles are trending towards
the mid level high strengthening just south of the area from
mid week into the weekend. This will allow for more of a
westerly component at 850mb which will allow for even higher
850mb temps to advect in (24-26C). This would allow for daily
highs in the middle/upper 90s east of Springfield, to around 100
west of Springfield and would last all the way into the
weekend. The NBM interquartile spreads are around 2-3 degrees
which allows for higher confidence in these high temps.

The lack of rainfall and these high temps will continue to allow
for vegetation to dry out. This will not only support these
high temps, but will also begin to allow for dewpoints to
perhaps remain at or below 70 during the day (versus low 70s we
have seen recently). While the air temps will increase, lower
dews may allow for heat indicies to remain generally at or below
105 in most areas. Indicies around 100 still look likely all
the way into the weekend. Therefore extension of heat headlines
look likely for Thursday onward. We will need to reassess the
afternoon mixing potential today and Wednesday for exact
headline changes/extensions for future updates. Little relief
is expected at night with lows in the 70s to around 80. Looking
at the latest NWS Heat Risk tool (which takes into account how
unusually above normal temps are, time of year and duration of
unusual heat), most of the area looks to remain in the major to
extreme category. While heat indicies themselves may not be
that extreme, the duration of the heat (looking to make a run
at 7+ days in some areas) will put a strain on heat sensitive
groups.

Decreasing Precip Chances: Warmer air aloft will make precip
chances hard to come by into the weekend. Precip chances now
have dropped below 20 percent with most places remaining dry.
The one area that will need to monitor for precip chances will
be the corridor from Morgan county to Phelps county. This area
will be just close enough where an isolated shower or storm
could drop in. Confidence in this occuring is low. The latest
CPC outlook suggests an increasing potential for Rapid Onset
Drought across southwest Missouri going into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with passing mid level clouds at times. Winds will
increase this morning and afternoon out of the south southwest
with gusts around 20kts. Low level wind shear is expected at the
sites overnight into Wednesday morning.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>092-095>098-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield