893
FXUS63 KSGF 021156
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will start to clear out around 7-9 AM.

- 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph today into
  Tuesday morning.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening (likely
  after 6 PM) into the overnight hours. Residual marginal
  severe risk over eastern areas on Tuesday. Damaging winds and
  isolated tornados are the primary risks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 127 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Patchy fog has settled in around the area early this morning
and has dropped visibilities under 10 miles for most of the
night. Patchy fog will taper off by late morning especially as
southerly winds start to become gusty just after sunrise.
Southerly winds will peak later this afternoon around 30-35 mph.
Skies will start out mostly cloudy then become partly cloudy by
this afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 70s for most of the
area and upper 60s over the eastern Ozarks where the cloud cover
will be a bit more persistent.

Severe threat: The timing for severe weather today will be later
in the evening after 6 PM into the overnight hours lingering
into Tuesday morning. There may be a few showers and
thunderstorms that form ahead of the front by late afternoon,
but the better threat is forecast for later in the evening. The
Slight to Marginal risk for severe weather is in the same
location as it was yesterday. The main threats are still
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and a few tornadoes possible.
SPC did update the conditional intensity for the tornado threat.
The CIG 1 has been brought further east to cover areas from SE
KS to Joplin/Nevada. SPC has made this adjustment due to the
uncertainty in storm mode.

Wind shear will be plentiful and dewpoints will be in the 60s.
Wind shear in the low to mid levels will tell the story today.
It will determine storm mode, updraft strength, whether or not
mesovortices form, and storm movement. A couple of uncertainties
today pertain to the lack of instability and where storm modes
will morph into different varieties. Supercells may make it as
far east as Joplin/Nevada and if a tornado does occur, it would
be stronger than just a spin up. The CIG 1 hatching over the
5-10% tornado outlook means that if a tornado does occur, there
is a 5-10% chance it could be as strong as an EF2. Again,
there`s no guarantee one will happen, but with supercells, all
modes of severe weather are possible. Today`s severe weather
event will be highly dependent on the wind shear. As mentioned
in previous discussions, instability over the Slight/Marginal
risk area will be between 500-700 J/kg (MUCAPE) today, which is
much lower than we typically see in the spring. If there isn`t
enough instability to initiate severe weather, this severe
threat could underperform. The 0-6km bulk shear in this area
will be around 45-50 kts which would support supercells. Further
east of I-49, the 0-6km bulk shear drops off to around 35 kts
which would be more supportive of organized multicells. Near
Highway 65 could be where the supercells start to form more of a
line of organized multicells. The 0-3km bulk shear (35-40 kts)
is also favorable for bowing thunderstorms/QLCS once the storms
begin to form a line. Wind direction in the 0-3km environment
will be out of the southwest which could also be favorable for
spin-ups along the line. SRH at the 0-1km and 0-3km levels is
between 200-300 m2/s2 which means rotating updrafts and
supercell development will be likely especially in areas where
the SRH gets above 300 m2/s2 west of I-49 later this evening.

Lastly, with this severe threat occurring this evening into the
overnight hours, be sure to have multiple ways to receive
warnings until the severe threat passes your area. We can get
tornadoes any time of the year in Kansas and Missouri, so its
best to be prepared even in the month of November. If severe
weather doesn`t occur, this system will still bring much needed
rainfall to the area. Forecast rainfall accumulations will be in
the 1-2 inch range from Monday-Wednesday over a three day
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 127 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Tuesday features a Marginal severe threat over the eastern
Ozarks for the afternoon. This would likely be due to diurnal
heating processes with damaging wind gusts and an isolated
brief tornado possible. This severe threat will be conditional
and could be impacted by any cloud cover from the overnight
convection.

The low pressure system that moves through at the beginning of
the week will drop our temperatures, but only by about 10
degrees. Though, it will bring them closer to average for this
time of year with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for the
rest of the week. Cloud cover starts to dissipate on Wednesday
and skies remain partly cloudy to mostly sunny into the
weekend. All of the low-end (15-20%) chances for rain previously
mentioned for the end of the week have disappeared. Our air
mass may be too dry for those rain showers to form as surface
high pressure moves in for the middle to end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Southerly winds will be gusty up to 30 knots by this afternoon.
These gusty winds will continue through the period. LIFR to
MVFR ceilings will persist through the late morning until VFR
ceilings return for a few hours this afternoon. MVFR/IFR returns
this evening ahead of showers and thunderstorms. Convection
will persist through the night heavy rainfall reducing
visibilities at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria