763
FXUS63 KSGF 132000
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected through
  at least Sunday (10 to 20 degrees above average). Record high
  temperatures are in jeopardy Friday and Saturday.

- Though details are uncertain, 30-40% chances for rain are in
  the forecast for next Monday. Higher rain chances then return
  by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show northwest flow aloft across the
area as the ridge continues across the Rockies. 850mb warm air
advection is occuring with the 12Z KSGF sounding measuring a
850mb temp of 11C. A look at the sounding from Midland, Texas
shows 850mb temps around 20C. It will be this airmass that moves
northeast towards the area. Plenty of dry air aloft remains
however there is shallow low level moisture around 850-925mb.
This moisture is moving north towards the area as seen by the
cumulus field near the Red River Valley. There was some high
clouds moving through this afternoon which is keeping temps in
the 60s across south central Missouri with everywhere else
around the lower 70s. A surface warm front was draped along the
Highway 65 corridor with dewpoints in the middle 50s at Joplin
while Rolla/Vichy was still at 38.

This Afternoon through Tonight: A steady south to eventual
southwest wind will continue as the warm front lifts through the
rest of the area. Dewpoints will continue to increase and we are
expecting a much warmer night than the last few with many
locations not dropping below 50 degrees. The exception being
valleys and sheltered areas mainly east of Springfield. We
should also begin to see an increase in low level cloud cover by
morning.

Friday: Forecast soundings still show the potential for a very
warm day as 850mb temps increase into the 12-15C range. This
would allow for highs to easily reach the middle to upper 70s
with a few areas approaching 80 degrees. The limiting factor
will be the extent of low level clouds (cumulus and/or stratus in
the 925-850mb layer). If the clouds can stay scattered with
plenty of sun then those highs mentioned above will occur. If
clouds are thicker that could keep us closer to the lower to
perhaps middle 70s. Southwest winds will be on the increase as
well and there is decent consensus in dewpoints reaching the
upper 50s. Regardless of exact highs it will be a well above
average day with record highs in jeopardy (see climate section
below).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Saturday: An exceptionally warm day looks likely as the center
of the ridge slides even further east towards the area. A very
warm southwest wind will bring in 850mb temps around 17-19C.
Looking at climatology this is the 99th percentile to near
record daily maximums for middle November. While it does look
like we will see some cloud cover (both high level and shallow
low level cumulus), enough sunshine and southwest winds will
push high temps into the upper 70s to potentially lower 80s.
This is supported by most ensemble and NBM guidance. Record
highs now look to be either tied or broken. See the climate
section below for more info.

Sunday: A cutoff low will eventually move into California and
the southwest US during the day. Also of note will be a
reduction in mid level heights as energy moves through the Great
lakes. This looks to nudge a frontal boundary through the area
early in the day with drier air filtering in, especially across
the northeast half of the area. Right now there is a decent
spread in highs with lower 60s across central Missouri and lower
70s across far southwest Missouri. Would expect some additional
changes to these temps as we get closer. No precip is expected
on Sunday given the dry frontal passage.

Monday: Ensembles have begun to come into better agreement that
the energy out west with begin to move into the Rockies and
Central Plains as a weaker wave. Return flow would allow for
some moisture ahead of this system however current ensembles do
not have much qpf for the region as the front moves through.
Precip chances remain in the 20-40% range for Monday into Monday
night with highest chances east of Highway 65.

Tuesday through Wednesday: While there is still decent ensemble
variance, the overall suggested synoptic pattern favors a
stronger and deeper trough across the southwest US by the middle
of next week. This would put the area in more of a southwest
flow aloft which in turn would allow for higher moisture to move
into the area. Too early to get into specifics however this
pattern does favor heavy rainfall wherever that baroclinic zone
sets up. Current most of the ensemble guidance favors Arkansas
for this however that could easily shift as the system becomes
better defined and sampled as we get closer to next week.
Rainfall chances are already in the 40-60% range for next
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. Passing high clouds will continue this afternoon
with additional cloud cover, perhaps closer to 5kft likely on
Friday. Winds will remain around 10kts out of the south to
southeast. Low level wind shear is possible overnight at the
sites.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

For context, average high temps for middle November are in the
57-60 degree range.

Record High Temperatures:

November 14:
KSGF: 78/1973
KJLN: 79/1964
KVIH: 75/1960
KUNO: 79/1999

November 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955
KUNO: 81/1955

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield