541
FXUS63 KSGF 251852
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
152 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory in effect across the area through 7 PM
  Tuesday evening as daily afternoon and early evening heat
  index values from 100 to 110 degrees are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Fair weather cumulus have popped up over the area with a bit
more vertical development occurring over the eastern Ozarks.
That area is the most favorable for convection to occur, if it
occurs. Right now there`s a 15-30% chance for a pop up
thunderstorm over that region through this afternoon. If any
convection does occur, it`s forecast to pop up closer toward the
warm front that`s draped over eastern MO. Otherwise, warm
temperatures are occurring today with highs reaching the low to
mid 90s and heat index values from 100 to 110 degrees. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday evening for the
entire area. Southwesterly winds stay near 10 mph through the
rest of the afternoon. Little overnight relief for us as lows
only dip into the mid to low 70s with partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The heat will stick around through the next few days and a Heat
Advisory will be in effect until Tuesday evening. There may
also be a few counties over SE KS/SW MO that will need an
Extreme Heat Warning as the ridge parks over us and cranks up
the heat a bit higher in those counties. Either way, it`ll be
hot. Expect highs in the 90s and lower 100s and for temperatures
to gradually get warmer through the weekend and into the start
of next week. Heat index values will range from 100 to 110
degrees with little overnight relief with lows in the mid 70s.

The ridge starts to break down Wednesday into Thursday with
low-end (15%) POPs moving in by mid-week with shortwaves
attempting to move in to the area. Then, a mid-level trough
moves through the area on Friday bringing our best chance for
rain at 20-30% and drop our highs a bit into the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR through the period with breezy southwesterly winds
continuing through the rest of the afternoon. Winds subside
tonight, and mostly clear skies persist.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria