434
FXUS63 KSGF 242321
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area until 8 PM
  Tuesday. Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s with Heat
  Index values between 100 to 110 today and 100-105 Tuesday.

- Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s through
  this week, with Heat Index values ranging in the 90s and into
  the 100s.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday, with
  highest chances (40 to 70%) late Tuesday night. Marginal risk
  for severe weather, with a slight risk in our far northern
  counties

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Current mesoanalysis shows an upper-level high located to
our southwest. A stationary front over northwest Arkansas has
migrated back over our area as a warm front. Southerly winds are
advecting warm, moist air over our area, with dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s. All of these factors combined lead to a particularly hot
temperature forecast, with highs reaching into the mid 90s east of
Highway 65, while areas west of Highway 65 will reach close to 100
today.

Because of the heat and humidity, heat indices range from around 100
to 110. A heat advisory is in effect for our entire CWA from
noon today until 8 PM Tuesday. Warm temperatures can quickly
become dangerous, so make sure to take the necessary precautions
in order to stay safe from the heat. Drink plenty of water,
even if you don`t feel thirsty, take frequent breaks in shade or
air conditioning, and be sure to check on those who may be more
vulnerable to heat-related illness.

Lows tonight will offer little reprieve from the heat, remaining in
the low 70s east of Highway 65, and the mid to upper 70s west of
Highway 65. Highs on Tuesday reach into the mid 90s, and with the
humidity here to stay, so too does the heat danger, with heat
indices around 100-105. Remember to stay cool and hydrated!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Beginning on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a
ridging pattern begins to develop over the western U.S. At the same
time as this, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great
Lakes region. This shortwave will allow a cold front to move south
through the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of
this front as it moves further south. Current precipitation chances
are set at 40-70% from midnight Wednesday to 7 AM. After the frontal
passage, a few lingering storms may remain in our southern CWA
through the morning and afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has most of our CWA in a
Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms, with northern
Benton, Miller, and Morgan counties at the southern edge of a Slight
(2 of 5) risk. Uncertainty remains in the southern extent of
organized severe risk, as favorable upper-level flow begins to
decrease as we move further south. The primary hazards from these
storms will be isolated hail up to the size of quarters, and 60 mph
wind gusts.

The ridging pattern developing to our west will continue to
influence temperatures this week. As a result of the cold front that
passes through our area, highs on Wednesday and Thursday are a
little cooler, as they will be in the upper 80s and low 90s.
Highs return to the 90s on Friday as the ridging pattern builds
up and moves east. Long-range ensembles show an upper-level low
by the U.S- Canadian border looks to move east on Friday and
Saturday. The result will be similar to what happens Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning, as this low will allow a shortwave
and a cold front to move south over the area, resulting in
precipitation chances (30-50 % chances). This may lower
temperatures slightly on Sunday. Regardless, The Climate
Prediction Center`s 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook continues to
signal 60-70% chances for above average temperatures through
July 7th.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the 00z TAFS, some cumulus at the onset should diminish
early this evening. South-southeast to south-southwest winds
will continue around 5 to 12 kts through the period. VFR
conditions are expected through the period.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 24:
KSGF: 99/1988
KJLN: 100/1954
KVIH: 99/1901
KUNO: 100/1952

June 25:
KSGF: 99/2012
KJLN: 101/2012
KVIH: 100/9999

June 28:
KSGF: 101/2012
KJLN: 102/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

June 30:
KSGF: 77/2018

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Kenny