127
FXUS63 KSGF 102037
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
337 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will continue diminishing in coverage and strength
  through the afternoon. 15-30% chance of scattered development
  along and east of Hwy 63 this evening, but no thunder is
  expected with any evening showers.

- Fog tonight, with the most dense fog (as dense as 1/4 mile
  visibility) towards central Missouri.

- Above average high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  and mostly dry weather forecasted into early next week.

- Forecast uncertainty increases mid-week ahead of a Pacific
  cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A cold front pushes south through central KS, serving as a
focal point for some isolated shower development this afternoon.
It`s more of a moisture boundary than a cold front though, with
temperatures in the 80s in the clear skies behind the boundary,
and only in the upper 50s to mid 60s under the cloudy skies
ahead of it; wind shifts and dew points in the 40s are what give
the boundary away.

Showers and thunderstorms moved across the area this morning,
which developed along an isentropic boundary in an otherwise
weak-forcing regime. PW values in the 1.2-1.3" range helped
these weakly-forced storms to produce as much as 0.75" of well-
needed rain in the last 12 hours. This rain will help prime the
environment for overnight fog formation, especially in central
Missouri (along/north of I-44, but especially east of Hwy 65),
where fog could become quite dense. While afternoon crossover
temperatures are still TBD, low temperatures are forecast to
drop into the 50s tonight, which is where current dew points are
generally situated. HREF probabilities of visibility less than
a quarter mile are 40-70%; while confidence isn`t high enough to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this time, confidence isn`t low enough
to rule out the need for one during the overnight hours
tonight.

Spotty shower re-development and/or drizzle may be possible
this evening, primarily in the eastern Ozarks (east of Hwy 63)
where PoPs are 15-25% into the early overnight hours, but PoPs
remain slightly elevated (10-15%) south of Hwy 60 as well.
Thunder/lightning is not expected to accompany any potential
evening showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Warm, above-normal temperatures from the upper 70s to mid-80s
will occur this weekend beneath a building upper-level ridge. A
low pressure system that is currently barreling into the
Cascades will attempt to undercut the building ridge in the
central US, with a Pacific cold front surging ahead of it.
Questions still remain on when the cold front will scrape the
central CONUS and whether it will even reach our area, but most
long-range guidance suggest at least one (maybe more) shortwave
ejecting off the parent trough, which would increase the
chances of the weather pattern in the Ozarks being disrupted.

The first shortwave is progged to approach the area Sunday
night (give or take), which increases our PoPs in the far
western fringes of the area to 15-30%. This coincides with a
tightening of the surface pressure gradient, bringing some gusty
winds up to 25 mph on Sunday. Sunday afternoon RHs are
currently expected to drop into the 35-50% range, so some
limited fire weather risk could occur in areas with excessively
dried fuels.

NBM PoPs stay low for the remainder of the week, but NBM has
increased limitations in transition seasons and weak forcing
regimes; additionally, deterministic NBM temperatures are
falling outside the IQR Monday and beyond for some portions of
our area. With increased spread for that period as well,
can`t say with certainty that there won`t be weakly-forced
showers after Monday that the NBM just can`t resolve at this
time scale (and gut feeling says there might be), but confidence
in occurrence isn`t high enough to add increased PoPs at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A system is sliding through the area early this afternoon,
bringing a shield of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
Most of the activity will clear KJLN and KSGF by 18Z, with the
remaining precipitation diminishing into southern Missouri
through mid-afternoon. Brief reduction in visibilities and
ceilings can be expected within this activity. Clouds linger
into the evening, with some scattering through the overnight.
Light and variable winds may support some fog development, but
confidence remains lower in this potential at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Perez