603
FXUS63 KSGF 130558
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning across the entire area today through
  Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around 105 to 110.
  Minimal overnight relief with temperatures in the upper 70s to
  around 80.

- Low chances (5-15%) for a few isolated thunderstorms into
  central MO in the late this afternoon and evening. Brief heavy
  downpours and an isolated strong wind gust. Thunderstorm
  coverage will remain limited across the area and most
  locations will likely remain dry.

- Potential heat relief for portions of the area by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2026

An upper-level ridge of high pressure and the hot air mass
remains over the region. Highs this afternoon will again warm
into the middle 90s to the around 100 degrees this afternoon.
Heat index values of around 105 to 110 will once again occur
this afternoon into this evening. Gusty south to southwesterly
winds will occur again this morning into this afternoon with
gusts up to around 20 to 30 mph at times, with the strongest
winds west of Highway 65. Afternoon humidity values will drop
into the 30 to 45 percent this afternoon, with the driest
conditions occur west of Highway 65. Lows this morning and again
tonight into Friday morning will be in the middle 70s to the
lower 80s. The Extreme Heat Warning will be effect for the
entire area today through Sunday.

A complex of storms will move east across portions of Iowa and
northern Missouri into this morning. This activity will remain
north of the area but an outflow boundary will likely move
south into central Missouri this afternoon/early evening. A cap
will remain in place across much of the area but could weaken
just enough across portions of central Missouri for a few
isolated storms to be possible as the outflow moves into the
area. Overall, the better potential will be just
north/northeast of the area, where the cap will be weaker. The
environment will be supportive of downbursts, so if a storm can
develop, gusty winds would be possible across portions of
central Missouri, along with locally heavy rainfall, as storm
motions will be slow. Coverage will be limited, and most
locations if not all locations across the area will likely
remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2026

The upper-level ridge of high pressure will remain in place
across the region Friday into the weekend. Highs will warm into
the middle 90s to around 100 each day with heat index values
around 105 to 110. Warm overnight lows will also continue each
night with lows in the middle 70s to the lower 80s. The Extreme
Heat Warning will remain in effect for the entire area through
Sunday.

A complex of storms is expected to develop across the Plains
again Thursday night and push southeast. A drier air mass will
advect into the area, but is it possible that a few showers and
storms push into the far northern portions of the area Friday
afternoon, north of Highway 54, as the complex weakens as it
moves southeast towards the area. Most locations will likely
remain dry. Mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend.

Early next week, an upper-level disturbance will push the ridge
back to the west and bring slightly cooler conditions to the
area, especially the eastern portions of the area, as well as
some scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. The hotter
conditions could linger across extreme southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight through the
day on Thursday. Gusty south to southwest winds will occur again
Thursday morning and afternoon. There is a low chance for an
isolated shower/storm across central MO Thursday afternoon and
evening but coverage will be very limited and most locations
will remain dry.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101.
     Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>092-095>098-102>106.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Sunday
     for MOZ070-071-081>083-090>092-095>098-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise