890
FXUS63 KSGF 161122
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
622 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today, mainly over
  south central Missouri. Excessive rainfall and flooding remain
  possible.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night
  across central Missouri, then a Slight (15% Chance) Risk
  Wednesday for much of our forecast area.

- Humid conditions are expected through the coming week.
  Signals point to temperatures nearing 90 F towards the end of
  the week. Therefore, we may see heat index values in the
  mid-90s to around 100 at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

An MCV remains over the area early this morning along with a
stationary frontal boundary at the surface over far southern MO.
Quite a bit of moisture remains over the area with PW values
ranging from 1.5 to 2.1". Slow moving showers/embedded
thunderstorms continue to develop over south central MO with
moderate to heavy rain causing some excessive rainfall and
flooding.

Because of the weak flow aloft, this system will be slow to move
out of the area today and we`ll see continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, mainly over south
central Missouri where it is currently ongoing. Eventually the
convection should diminish this evening and we should see some
clearing.

An upper level jet streak and trough will begin to push into the
Rockies and high plains tonight with another thunderstorm
complex developing and moving into the plains, but should stay
north and west of the area prior to 12z Tue. Some remnants of
this convection may affect western portions of the CWA on
Tuesday morning.

High temperatures on Tuesday should reach the mid to upper 80s
with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This should bring
afternoon heat index values into the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The upper level trough will start to shift into the area Tuesday
night. Strong to severe thunderstorms(marginal/slight) will be
possible Tuesday night across our northern and northwestern counties
in central Missouri into southeast Kansas as the trough moves
in from the west and a frontal boundary drops southeast into the
area. High PW values, decent instability and moderate to strong
shear will be available for damaging winds, large hail and
excessive rainfall. There is also a marginal/slight excessive
rainfall outlook for these same areas.

The severe and excessive rainfall risk will then shift south
across the remainder of our CWA during the day on Wednesday into
Wednesday evening as the main trough axis and front shift
through the area.

An upper level ridge amplifies over the area late in the week
into the upcoming weekend which will bring temperatures into the
upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s to
lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Conditions are expected to be mainly dry through the period at
the terminals with showers and thunderstorms staying to the east
today. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR
by 15Z at JLN, 17Z at SGF, and 19Z at BBG. There may be some
redevelopment of the fog after 06Z tonight, but confidence is
too low to include in the TAFS at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...00