235
FXUS63 KSGF 061945
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue today.

- Low chance (<30%) for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon
  and evening. Later, there`s a 20-60% chance of showers and
  thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning. Not all locations
  will see rain, and any amounts will be sparse and generally
  <0.75".

- Slightly cooler temperatures behind a front mid-week with
  temperatures near average. Above normal temperatures in the
  80s are then likely to return to the region late this week
  into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

An upper level trough is located over the Plains this afternoon
with a cold front extending from central Kansas to the northeast
into Iowa. There is also an upper level disturbance moving
northeast across western Arkansas. The area currently remains
between the two disturbances along with a warmer air mass in
place over us. Highs this afternoon will be warm again in the
lower to middle 80s which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year. Some weak uncapped instability is in place
across the area, but a dry air mass is also in place and the
better lift will remain north/west and south/east of the area
through this afternoon. An isolated shower/storm will be
possible this afternoon and evening but overall most locations
will remain dry. The best potential (30% chances) will be across
far south central Missouri where moisture will start to advect
north into the area, but still coverage will be limited.

The upper level disturbance will continue to move northeast
tonight into Tuesday morning. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across far south central Missouri
as some weak uncapped instability and lift from the disturbance
will be in place. The cold front will also move south through
the area tonight into early Tuesday morning. Showers and a few
storms could develop to the west in southeastern KS this
evening but instability will decrease from west to east so the
activity should weaken as it moves towards central MO. A few
showers will be possible but the thunderstorm chances will be
low across much of the area besides south central Missouri as
discussed above.

The front will move through the entire area by Tuesday morning.
Low level clouds will move into the area this evening and
tonight and will remain over the area on Tuesday. As the upper
level trough moves east across the area, drizzle and lower
visibilities will be possible at times on Tuesday as the lift
occurs within the low level moisture. There could also be some
patchy fog across portions of southern Missouri tonight into
Tuesday morning, some areas of dense fog will be possible.

A slightly cooler air mass will advect into the region behind
the front on Tuesday and clouds will also be over the region
resulting in highs ranging from the upper 60s to the middle 70s
for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The upper level trough will be over the region mid week as upper
level ridging will be to the west of the area. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above normal Wednesday and Thursday with
highs in the middle to upper 70s. An upper level low will dig
southeast across the west coast late week into the weekend and
will cause the upper level ridge to move east towards our area.
This will also send a warmer air mass into the area with highs
in the low to middle 80s returning, which will be 5 to 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. The ensemble model
members are in fairly good agreement with highs this week
through the weekend leading to increased confidence in the
warmer temperatures returning. Outside the rain chance today and
Tuesday, dry conditions are expected the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Cumulus clouds are developing across the area this afternoon as
mid level clouds also increase across the region. Some isolated
showers/thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening and again late tonight into Tuesday morning, but
coverage will be limited and chances for a TAF site being
impacted is low (<20%) this afternoon.

Moisture is increasing across the area from the south and some
low level clouds will build into the area tonight into Tuesday
morning, with IFR to LIFT ceilings possible. There could also be
some drizzle at times as lift moves through this low level
moisture at times. There will also be the potential for some fog
across far southern Missouri including the KBBG sites tonight
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise