544
FXUS63 KSGF 251111
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
511 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog and patchy drizzle may linger through the morning.

- Mostly dry with below-average temperatures this afternoon
  through at least early Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s,
  and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

- Widespread precipitation chances (50% to 80%) arrive late
  Friday and persist through the weekend. All rain is favored
  across most of the area, but wet snow may mix in across the
  eastern Ozarks late Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The upper level shortwave trough that assisted in yesterday`s
precipitation development continues to push northeast of the
area, with the respective surface low exiting to the east this
morning. Observations showcase decreasing visibilities across
the Missouri Ozarks as fog begins to develop behind this system.
As the early morning continues, areas of patchy fog will
continue, however we`re not expecting any widespread dense fog.
Radar shows patchy light showers continuing in localized areas,
with rates up to a couple hundredths of an inch.

As the morning continues, cloud ice is essentially nonexistent,
with relative humidities >90% and pockets of upward omega
(a.k.a. lift). All that to say, ingredients are present for
patchy drizzle to continue through the morning and into the
early afternoon hours before a cold front sweeps through the
area and ushers in a drier airmass.

Models show an upper level trough digging into the Midwest as we
continue through today, with the aforementioned associated cold
front sweeping through the area this afternoon and evening. This
frontal passage should end any residual drizzle as it passes
from west to east. Ensembles continue hinting at very light rain
sprinkles over our northeast counties this afternoon, however
any rainfall that does occur will have little to no
accumulations. The more likely scenario would be for any
precipitation to be in the form of drizzle.

With clouds sticking around through the afternoon before
clearing occurs this evening/tonight, afternoon highs are
expected to remain in the upper 50s, with some areas near
south-central Missouri reaching the low 60s.

A much colder airmass will settle into the region behind the
front as northwesterly flow aloft dominates. As a result,
afternoon highs through the remainder of the week will top out
in the 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows in the 20s to low
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

As we look towards this weekend, ensembles continue to showcase
an upper level trough developing over the western CONUS,
allowing Gulf moisture to return to the area as southerly flow
takes over. This will likely bring an end to the dry conditions,
with NBM probabilities continuing to range between 50-85%,
especially Friday night through Saturday afternoon.

Now the big question remains: what precipitation type will we
likely see. The short answer is that it`s still too far out to
narrow down specifics, as large discrepancies between ensembles
still exist. Even just looking at the NBM interquartile spread
for Springfield, there`s still a 19-20 degree difference between
the 25th and 75th percentiles (25th: 34 degrees; 75th: 53
degrees), which would be a large determining factor in precip
type. However further northeast, this does narrow down a bit
where the colder temperatures are more probable. It`s really
going to come down to if the warm air in the south can surge
northward or if the colder air remains. We`ll have a better idea
of these specifics once ensembles come into better agreement on
the dynamics of this system. For now, the best chances for any
wintry precip in our CWA remain over the eastern Ozarks Friday
night/Saturday morning where temperatures around freezing could
lead to a rain/wet snow mixture. In these locations, NBM
probabilities for measurable snow >0.1" are 20-30%, with
probabilities of >1" remaining between 10-20%. Further
northeast, snow would be favorable, while southwest (most of
our CWA) rain would be the favorable ptype. The Probabilistic
Winter Storm Severity Index continues to show a 10% to 30%
chance of minor travel impacts across the eastern Ozarks.

With the high uncertainty still at play leading to drastically
different scenarios, we`ll need to monitor how this system sets
up closer to this timeframe in order to get a better idea of
what to expect. However with those traveling after the
Holidays, now would be the time to begin preparing in the case
of wintry precipitation. Make sure to keep up with the forecast
through the remainder of the week as forecast details continue
to change.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through much of the morning
hours, with cigs between 300 to 900 feet. Some patchy drizzle
and pockets of light rain will continue to be possible for a few
more hours. Later this afternoon, a cold front will sweep
through the area, improving cigs back to MVFR between 17Z-19Z,
then to VFR between 21Z-00Z. With the frontal passage, expect
winds to shift out of the northwest, gusting between 20-25kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto