117
FXUS63 KSGF 251816
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
116 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistence forecast prevails for another couple days, with
  conditions today and tomorrow being nearly identical to
  yesterday and the day before that.

- Daily heat index values in the middle 90s to lower 100s will
  occur across the area each day this week.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening shower and storm
  chances (15-30%) will be possible this afternoon with daily
  chances increasing (30-50%) Friday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Much like the last few
days, water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a
summertime high pressure cell located the Ohio River Valley with
the Ozarks region on the western periphery. 12z KSGF sounding
measured a moist low level airmass with a PW value around 1.6in.
The mid levels continue to moisten with a mid level RH around
63%. There was still some slightly drier air above 600mb. Mid
level temps were around 9C and a widespread cumulus field had
developed across the area. Convective temps were a little lower around
87F and has been met in several areas already with a few
isolated showers across central Missouri. Dewpoints were in the
lower 70s with current heat index values generally in the 93 to
98 degree range.

This Afternoon through Thursday Night: Pulse showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two will remain possible (10-25%
chance) this afternoon. Upper level moisture (above 600mb)
remains a limiting factor for stronger pulse thunderstorms
however 0-3km theta e diffs are forecast to be around 30C which
is a little better for gusty winds (30-40mph). Lightning and
locally heavy rainfall still look like the primary hazards this
afternoon.

The upper high looks to shift slightly further south tomorrow as
shortwave energy moves into the northern plains. Models continue
to show slightly lower instability and overall coverage of
afternoon pop ups tomorrow afternoon. However by Thursday
evening/night there is a signal that thunderstorms across
eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri closer to the shortwave
and front could have enough outflow boundaries pushing
southeast to reach our area with a 20-40 percent chance of a
evening or overnight shower or thunderstorm, especially
northwest of I-44 and especially closer to the Highway 54 region.

High temps this afternoon and on Thursday will likely reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s which is slightly above average for the
time of year, especially up near Rolla/Vichy. Overnight low
temps continue to remain above average as lows are typically in
the middle 60s with lows previously and going forward remaining
in the lower 70s. This is contributing to the Heat Risk output
reaching the moderate to major category for areas along and east
of Highway 63. Therefore anyone without effective cooling
systems and those working outdoors will need to take proper
precautions. The steady south wind will keep the heat from being
as oppressive as it could be and no Heat Advisory is planned at
this time as daily max heat index values remain at or below 100
degrees in many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Friday through Tuesday: Ensemble guidance continues to suggest
that the upper level high will continue to slide/re position
itself south of the area therefore we will be more on the
northern side of the surface ridge and closer to any passing
shortwave to the north. Daily afternoon pulse showers/storms
also continue to look possible as well.

Pops have now increased Friday through Monday (30-50%) north of
Interstate 44. The increase in pops looks to be due to a
frontal boundary and upper level shortwave that moves closer to
the area and interacts with a moist airmass. Does not look like
a washout weekend by no means but perhaps just more coverage of
showers and storms than what we have been seeing lately.

NBM continues to show very small high temperature ranges with
alot of consistency/confidence in the upper 80 to lower 90
degree range. Therefore a persistence forecast continues for the
end of the week and into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with ceilings
around 3-4kft this afternoon. There is a low chance (10-20%) of
a shower or storm this afternoon however confidence is too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will remain out of
the south to southwest around 10kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952
KJLN: 80/1978
KUNO: 76/2024
KVIH: 77/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937
KJLN: 80/1978
KUNO: 75/2009
KVIH: 76/1969

June 27:
KSGF: 76/1934
KJLN: 80/1911
KUNO: 74/2013
KVIH: 77/1954

June 30:
KSGF: 77/2018
KJLN: 84/1911
KUNO: 76/1911
KVIH: 76/1978

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield/Camden