504
FXUS63 KSGF 140817
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
317 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Benton, Morgan, Miller,
 and Camden counties until 9 AM for visibilities less than 1
 mile. Drive with caution this morning. Patchy fog is possible
 elsewhere across southern Missouri.

-Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances as temperatures
  climb back to around 90. This is still a few degrees below
  normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Benton, Morgan, Miller,
and Camden counties until 9 AM for visibilities less than 1
mile. Drive with caution this morning. This is primarily due to
an abundance of moisture over that area thanks to recent
rainfall, clear skies, and light winds. There`s a bit more cloud
cover further south over southern MO that`s preventing fog from
becoming too dense but patchy fog is still possible.

The afternoon summertime pop-up thunderstorm pattern returns
through the short term period with 30-60% chance of rain this
afternoon and 30-50% chance of rain Tuesday afternoon. Models
don`t do well with this type of pattern, but mid-level RH
values, PWATs near 1.8", and CAPE around 1100 J/kg support
pulse-like thunderstorms this afternoon mainly along and south
of I-44. As for tomorrow, these atmospheric conditions will be
similar in the afternoon but mainly for areas east of Highway
65. Rainfall amounts are forecast to stay <0.25" and storms will
likely be sub-severe.

Winds will be quite variable for the next couple of days but
will remain light. Today will feature easterly winds while
tomorrow will have southwesterly winds. Today will be partly
cloudy with highs in the mid 80s. Tuesday will be sunnier with
highs reaching the upper 80s. Daytime temperatures will be
below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A series of shortwaves will move through the area bringing
daily storm chances favoring afternoon convection as instability
builds. This pattern will go through the entire long term
period.

NBM QPF is generally around a quarter inch daily though high
precipital water and weak flow will need to be monitored for
the potential for flooding. Temperatures will slowly climb back
toward normals in the lower 90s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Patchy fog will form over the area in the next couple of hours
lowering visibilities and bringing ceilings down into MVFR/IFR
levels. The thicker fog will form more towards central Missouri
tonight. Fog will dissipate around sunrise and VFR will return
with light easterly winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-
     069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria