611
FXUS63 KSGF 012340
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall coverage and amounts continue to decrease through
  Friday, but additional rounds of showers are expected.
  Flooding threat is minimal.

- Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures will then occur
  this weekend through the majority of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

While some areas of SE KS have already received over 2 inches
of rainfall from this system, many areas have seen minimal
amounts. The overall trend has been less coverage and amounts of
rainfall through the end of the event on Friday. This is due to
subsidence downstream of the rapidly weakening cyclone
currently over the panhandle of OK. The system is expected to
continue to weaken/fill as it moves as a trough over the area
tonight into Friday. For the rest of today, mainly looking at
isolated to scattered light showers, but some heavier scattered
showers and perhaps thunderstorms are possible mainly east of
Highway 65 where 500-1,000 J/kg of SBCAPE has developed thanks
to decreased cloud cover and temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Shear will be weak, so not expecting and severe chances, but
could see some brief moderate to heavy rainfall. The passage of
the mid- level trough will coincide with a cold frontal passage,
bringing increased rain chances of 80-100% (mainly along and
south of I-44) tonight into Friday morning. Precip then ends
from NW to SE during the day Friday.

Overall, look for additional rainfall amounts of 0.25-1.50",
with potential for locally higher values of 2-3 inches possible.
This is not expected to cause any flooding issues outside of
localize nuisance flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Dry weather with closer to normal temperatures takes hold this
weekend into next week. Look for highs in the 70s for the most
part through Monday, then 70s to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Aviation conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate and
stay poor for much of the 00Z TAF period. Short-term guidance
gives a near 100% chance for IFR cigs by 09Z, though latest
observations suggest these will settle in earlier. Have included
TEMPO groups for uncertainty in onset timing, with the greatest
confidence occurring in the FM groups.

There is some uncertainty in just how low cigs get, but chances
for periods of LIFR do look to be greater than 30%. During this
period, rain and/or drizzle is possible through 12-15Z, though
given latest observations, any precipitation should not impact
visibilities all too much. The main period to watch is between
06-13Z at SGF and BBG where some heavier rain may occur,
bringing visibilities down to 2-5 miles at times.

The low cigs are expected to move in with a cold front, which
will also shift winds to north-northeasterly between 00-03Z,
increasing from 5-10 kts to 10-15 kts by 08-10Z. Some gusts up
to 20-25 kts are possible after 10Z.

Lastly, there is uncertainty in how long IFR cigs hang on,
though latest guidance and rules of thumb suggest clearing may
not occur until the very end of the TAF period. Trends will be
monitored for the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Price