712
FXUS63 KSGF 110704
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
204 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (2 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening. Hail up to the size of golf balls and
  wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be the primary hazards, with a
  secondary risk of tornadoes.

- Additional thunderstorm chances on Saturday and Sunday will
  pose a risk for flash flooding due to recent heavy rainfall,
  elevated streamflows, and saturated soils. An associated
  severe weather risk may also develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Synoptic Overview:

An occluded upper-level low embedded within a broader shortwave
trough was pivoting northeast through Canada toward the Hudson
Bay early this morning, dragging an attendant surface front
through the Midwest and into the Plains. A surface low was situated
across southwest Kansas, slowly pushing east. Convection has
remained more robust across portions of northern Missouri and
Illinois but has struggled to survive farther to the southwest
with more significant inhibition.

Gusty Winds this Morning:

As the surface low across Kansas shifts east this morning, the
pressure gradient will tighten, and winds will increase. Hi-res
guidance is also more bullish on the maximum gust potential in
response to this increasing gradient, so we have bumped up our
forecast winds and gusts this morning. Southwesterly gusts of 40
to 45 mph are likely west of Highway 65. Winds should start to
relax throughout the afternoon as heating increases and the
pressure gradient washes out.

Warm and Muggy Today:

Dew points will remain high today, contributing to continued
humid and sticky conditions. Temperatures will be similar today
compared to yesterday`s in the upper 80s to low 90s, but an
even greater influx of moisture will push heat indices a few
degrees higher. Afternoon heat indices are forecast to be in the
95 to 105 degree range, which is just shy of Heat Advisory
criteria. Nevertheless, vulnerable populations and those
sensitive to heat illnesses may still be susceptible.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk this Afternoon/Evening:

Environment: The larger shortwave will dig and pivot through
the Plains and into the Midwest throughout the day today,
pushing the aforementioned cold front east/southeast into
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. A juiced thermodynamic
profile featuring steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and
ample MUCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg) within a zone of enhanced 850 mb
and mid- level flow will support robust updrafts and convection
capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts along
the front. Notably, CAMs have shifted the corridor of the
greatest shear slightly to the northwest over the last 12-24
hours, therefore decreasing the available shear for storms in
our CWA. Guidance has 0-6 km bulk shear values progged around 30
to 35 kt across west-central Missouri and eastern Kansas, which
would still be sufficient for robust, organized updrafts
capable of producing severe weather, but may limit the very
large hail potential for those areas.

Timing: Convective initiation looks to begin across eastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri sometime between 2 PM to 4 PM.
Storm mode may initially favor a brief period of supercells, but
with deep- layer flow largely parallel to the front, storms
should quickly grow upscale into clusters and/or line segments.
Overall, guidance is in fairly good agreement with the
timing/speed of these storms as they push southeast through the
forecast area. They depict the line of storms approaching the
I-44 corridor between 5 PM and 8 PM, then through south-central
MO and the eastern Ozarks between 8 PM and 11 PM. The front
looks to slow down somewhat as it moves into southeast
Missouri, so a few storms may linger across extreme
southern/south- central Missouri into the midnight hour, but the
severe threat will also be diminishing at that time.

Hazards: If supercells form, hail up to the size of golf balls,
gusts up to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado will be possible
across west- central Missouri and southeast Kansas. As mentioned
previously, however, confidence in this very large hail being
realized has decreased, and the window for occurrence will
likely be small. As storms shift southeast toward the I-44
corridor, hail to the size of quarters and gusts of 60 to 70 mph
will be the primary hazards, with a secondary risk for a brief,
weak tornado. Across south-central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks, storms are expected to gradually diminish in intensity,
but a few instances of hail to the size of quarters and 60 mph
wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Heavy downpours with high rain
rates (1-2"/hr) will accompany these storms, but the progressive
nature of the front limits the risk of widespread flooding.
Sensitive or already- inundated basins may still be at risk of
localized flash flooding, however.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Cool and Dry Friday:

Temperatures--and especially dew points--will tumble behind the
front on Friday, making way for much cooler, drier, and more
pleasant- feeling conditions. Look for high temperatures in the
low 80s and no precipitation chances, at least until late
Friday night.

Flooding & Severe Potential Saturday-Sunday:

Ensembles show the upper-level pattern becoming more zonal by
the weekend, allowing the front to lift north into southern
Missouri and southeast Kansas as a warm front and bring warm,
moist air back to the region. Global models do show general
agreement in breaking out convection along the front in an
unstable environment, but their overly wide QPF footprint is
likely leading to artificially inflated PoPs-- at least for
specific times and locations on Saturday. That said, confidence
is high that there will be showers and storms throughout the day
(75-95% chance), but an all-day washout remains questionable at
this time. By Saturday night, an upper-level trough is poised
to dig through the Great Lakes region and Midwest, dragging a
cold front through the Missouri Ozarks. Additional convection
is likely to form along this boundary given the moist, unstable
environment under a belt of enhanced 500 mb flow. Precipitation
chances remain high (80-90%) late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. These repeated rounds of rain, along with saturated
soils and already-elevated streamflows will open the door to
more flooding potential. The Weather Prediction Center as
maintained its Slight Risk across the entire forecast area.

Severe weather cannot be ruled out with this second round of
storms, but the better potential appears to be closer to the 500
mb jet across northern Missouri, eastern Kansas, and Iowa.
Machine learning and AI guidance generally supports a more
northerly signal as well, but this risk will be better assessed
in future forecast updates.

Next Week:

Precipitation chances become more scarce (25% or less) by
Monday as the front pushes south into Arkansas. Even cooler
temperatures are progged to filter in behind it; in fact, NBM
percentile data support high temperatures around 10 degrees
below climatological averages by Monday, followed by a gradual
warmup.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Gusty southerly winds will pick up again Thursday morning around
sunrise and gradually decrease through the morning, while
remaining breezy until a front passes later in the day. Along
the front, there is high confidence in thunderstorms occurring.
Some storms may be severe.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Titus