629
FXUS63 KSGF 162254
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
554 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather on Thursday. Main
  threats are damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy
  rainfall with those storms.

- Daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances mainly through
  Friday, but with a 15% chance over the far east this weekend.
  Lightning and locally heavy rainfall are likely where storms
  do form.

- Temperatures gradually increase into the low to mid 90s
  through the weekend, with maximum heat index values up to
  100-105 degrees. By the middle of next week, high temperatures
  in the mid to upper 90s are possible, along with maximum heat
  index values up to around 105. Heat headlines may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Similar to previous days, isolated to scattered showers and
non-severe thunderstorms will continue into this evening, mainly
along and south of I-44.

Overnight tonight looks quiet for the most part, but there is a
<20% chance of some convection from a decaying thunderstorm
complex moving into the northwestern portions of the area late
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For Thursday, there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms at times through the day, but not expecting an
all day washout. In the morning, 30-50% PoPs represent chances
for decaying overnight convection to move into the area. Areas
along and northwest of I-44 have the highest chances of this
occurring. No severe weather is expected in the morning.

By Thursday afternoon, depending on evolution of morning
precip/cloud cover, the atmosphere is expected to destabilize
with 2,000-3,500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Shear is initially very weak,
but does increase to around 30 kts across central MO in the
evening. Convection is expected to redevelop in these
conditions. This leads to a marginal risk mainly for isolated
downburst winds up to 60 mph in the strongest storms. Might also
see a risk for 1" hail over northern portions of the area where
shear is stronger.

Look for highs in the mid 80s to low 90s Thursday, but that
will depend on earlier cloud cover and convection.

Friday will again see isolated to scattered non-severe showers
and storms, mainly east of I-49. Look for highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s with heat index values up to 100-105.

This weekend will see some 15% PoPs over the eastern CWA as
upper ridging pushes in from the west, limited precip chances
closer to the ridge. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with
max heat index values of 100-105, locally higher.

By the middle of next week, an upper high will move over the
area, leading to a mostly rain free forecast. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 90s with max heat index values of 100-110.

Heat headlines may be needed this weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
tomorrow primarily after 12Z, with the highest chances at KSGF
and KJLN. With the lower confidence in coverage, kept this
potential in PROB30 groups for now, with the exception of a
prevailing group at KSGF tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Melto