903
FXUS63 KSGF 010600
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
100 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect across the entire area through
  Friday. Daily highs in the middle 90s to low 100s. Maximum
  afternoon heat index values around 100 to 105. Minimal
  overnight relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.
  Increasing confidence in the potential extension of heat
  headlines through the upcoming weekend.

- Little to no rain chances over the next week, with hot and dry
  conditions amplifying a rapid onset drought across the area.
  Worsening drought conditions may allow for an early onset to
  the Fall fire weather season.

- High confidence in above average temperatures (70-80% chance)
  and dry conditions continuing into mid-September.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Today-Tonight:
Another hot and dry day ahead, with highs in the middle to
upper 90s. A few locations will reach/exceed 100. Dewpoints
remain relatively "low" in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As a
result, maximum afternoon heat index values peak around 100 to
105 degrees. Overall, a "dry" heat today with relative humidity
values dipping to around 25 to 35% again as peak mixing occurs
in the afternoon. South- southwest winds this afternoon, with
occasional wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph along and west of Highway
65. This will support some localized areas of fire weather,
particularly with regard to finer fuels such as grass. Despite
this being a drier heat to begin the week, hot is hot. A Heat
Advisory runs through the remainder of the week. Minimal
overnight relief tonight, with lows remaining in the middle to
upper 70s across most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Wednesday-Monday:
The well above normal temperatures and daily heat index values
of 100 to 105+ degrees will be accompanied by minimal overnight
relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s. There is the
potential for record temperatures through this period (see
Climate section). The extent of the extreme heat is well
captured by the NWS HeatRisk product, with widespread Major
(3/4) to Extreme (4/4) Heat Risk over the area on today through
Saturday. Other days peak into the Major (3/4) category.

Currently, the highest heat index values of 100 to 105+ degrees
overspread the area today through Saturday. This time period is
when dewpoints are progged to be highest, in the middle to
upper 60s. However, we will have to keep a close eye on dewpoint
forecast trends, as the NBM has been running high. Confidence
remains high for heat index values to remain between 100 to 105,
with much lower confidence in exceeding 105. Any locations that
do exceed 105 will generally be confined to north and west of
the Ozark Plateau. Thus, a Heat Advisory remains the most
appropriate product. As confidence increases in the prolonged
heat continuing into the weekend, an extension of headlines may
be warranted.

This period of extreme heat will be dry with no mentionable
PoPs in the forecast through much of the upcoming week. The
extent and coverage of this heat wave will further amplify
drought conditions over the area, with D1 and D2 now in effect
for portions of southeast KS and southwest MO. CPC continues to
highlight concerns for a rapid onset drought. Additionally, this
could support an early onset of Fall fire weather season.
Continue to monitor trends and observations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

High confidence in VFR flight conditions prevailing through the
TAF period. Minimal high level clouds, with south-southwest
winds at 5 to 10 knots through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 1:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1953
KUNO: 101/2000

September 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1899

September 3:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 100/1897

September 4:
KJLN: 102/1954

September 5:
KSGF: 99/1998
KJLN: 103/1998

September 6:
KJLN: 101/1954


Record High Minimum Temperatures (KSGF only):

September 1:
KSGF: 77/1922

September 2:
KSGF: 76/1922

September 3:
KSGF: 74/2011

September 4:
KSGF: 75/1913

September 5:
KSGF: 76/1998

September 6:
KSGF: 76/1925

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Titus/Camden/Perez