400
FXUS63 KSGF 110259
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
959 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning across portions of southeast KS,
  southwest MO, and into central MO through Wednesday. Daily
  heat index values around 105 to 108. Elsewhere, a Heat
  Advisory is in effect for daily heat index values around 100
  to 104.

- Low shower and thunderstorm chances (< 15%) clip portions of
  the area on Wednesday and Thursday, with most areas remaining
  dry.

- Confidence is increasing in the extension of heat headlines on
  Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Through Tonight:
Another hot and humid afternoon across the area as an upper-
level ridge continues to establish itself across the central
CONUS. 850mb temperatures reach towards 22 to 25 C, supporting
high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. A few locations
reach towards 100 across southeast KS into far southwest MO. Add
in the humidity, and heat index values reach towards 100 to
108. The highest heat index values will occur within the Extreme
Heat Warning, with just a touch lower values across the
remainder of the area in a Heat Advisory. Additionally, minimal
overnight relief is expected with very warm overnight lows in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Tuesday-Sunday:
Expecting similar conditions to persist through much of the
forecast period, outside of low PoPs clipping the area on
Wednesday and Thursday. NWS Heat Risk continues to show the
entire area in the Major to Extreme category through the
upcoming weekend, therefore heat sensitive groups will need to
take proper precautions. Daily highs remain progged to push
towards middle to upper 90s, with lower 100s in portions of
southeast KS into southwest MO. Likewise, daily heat index
values are expected to push towards 100 to 108. As a result,
heat headlines will likely need to be extended beyond Wednesday
if confidence continues to increase. As mentioned though, the
one fly in the ointment would be low PoPs (< 15%) on Wednesday
and Thursday across our northern counties. This would be the
result of the low chances from remnant activity sinking into the
area, with the active jet stream displaced just north of the
area through mid-week. If confidence continues to lean towards
the lower or no PoPs scenario, than heat headlines will need
extended in time. Beyond Thursday, ensemble guidance suggest a
restrengthening of the upper- level ridge across the region.
This supports the signal for extreme heat persisting over the
next week or so.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 958 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this TAF
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>092-095>098-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Titus