523
FXUS63 KSGF 012255
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
455 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle/fog expected mainly south and east of Springfield into
  Monday morning. Dense fog possible at times.

- 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph are expected
  Monday into Tuesday morning.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday evening and Monday
  night. Residual marginal severe risk over eastern areas on
  Tuesday. Damaging winds and isolated, brief tornados are the
  primary risks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Southeasterly flow and low level moisture will continue to
promote fog/drizzle mainly south and east of Springfield into
Monday morning. Expect that activity to become more prevalent
this evening and tonight. Uncertain if Springfield proper will
see fog/drizzle as models keep better conditions southeast.

Some guidance shows visibilities dropping to around a quarter
mile. If this trend continues, a Dense Fog Advisory may be
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A strong mid level system will impact the region Monday into
Tuesday, featuring a deep 500mb trough with potent shortwave
energy interjecting into the trough. This results in some
uncertainty in finer details of synoptic evolution, but there is
high confidence in seeing strong forcing and impressive wind
fields with the system.

Winds Monday into Tuesday: Strong southerly surface and low
level flow will result in sustained winds of 15-25 mph, with
gusts up to 35 mph. Strongest winds Monday will be west of Hwy
65, shifting east overnight to the eastern CWA on Tuesday
morning. Winds decrease below notable levels on Tuesday
afternoon.

Severe:

Overall expecting a slight risk for severe storms along/west of
Hwy 65 late Monday into Monday night as shown by the updated
SPC outlook. As storms move east late Monday night into Tuesday,
conditions will not be as favorable for severe weather, with
marginal risk noted. Main risks for be damaging winds and brief,
isolated tornadoes.

Instability will be a significant limiting factor, with even
MUCAPE values generally 250 J/kg or less (locally up to 500
J/kg possible, but less likely). This should limit any isolated
to scattered afternoon WAA-forced convection to remain below
severe limits. However, upstream convection from central OK to
central KS is expected to grow upscale into QLCS structures as
potent shortwave energy and a strengthening LLJ move into the
region. Strong forcing from height falls and PVA aloft, along
with low level convergence, are expected to overcome the weak
instability and effectively force the linear convection. This
leads to primarily a strong wind threat (up to 60-65 mph) and
isolated, weak tornado threat in northeastward bowing segments
given SW 0-3km shear around 30-40 kts. This threat should
materialize in the evening to early overnight Monday, though
guidance still varies on exact timing. Tuesday timing should be
mainly in the morning to early afternoon over the eastern CWA,
but the severe threat may linger into the afternoon depending on
near-term details.

It`s worth noting that, while highly unlikely, if greater
surface heating occurs on Monday, the instability would be
greater and the threat picture could change considerably. Stay
tuned and check for updates to the DSS Packet at
weather.gov/sgf.

Precip amounts:

Linear convective elements and nearly line-parallel flow will
lead to significant variance in amounts. Generally expect
0.5-1.5 inches, with locally higher amounts of 1.5-2.5 inches
per REFS PMM, and lower amounts as low as 0.25 inches. No
significant flooding is expected.

Late week:

The rest of the forecast is currently dry, but models do show
varying levels of shortwave energy moving through that could
result in some minor rainfall. Overall, look for cooler
temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s to mid
40s. Expect frost/freeze potential over at least the eastern
Ozarks, but that shouldn`t be a shock since it`s early November.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 455 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue to linger at KSGF and KBBG
through tonight Monday, with KJLN seeing MVFR ceilings
returning for a portion of Monday morning. Ceilings as low as
500 to 1500 feet are expected, with a short period of LIFR
ceilings closer to 300 feet at KBBG overnight. Additionally,
reduced visibilities around 2 to 4 miles may occur as KBBG.
Otherwise, expect light southeast winds overnight at 5 to 10
knots. Winds increase into late Monday morning and afternoon out
of the south. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 knots, with gusts
approaching 20 to 30 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Perez