142
FXUS63 KSGF 141732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Benton, Morgan, Miller,
 and Camden counties until 9 AM for visibilities less than 1
 mile. Drive with caution this morning. Patchy fog is possible
 elsewhere across southern Missouri.

-Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances as temperatures
  climb back to around 90. This is still a few degrees below
  normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Benton, Morgan, Miller,
and Camden counties until 9 AM for visibilities less than 1
mile. Drive with caution this morning. This is primarily due to
an abundance of moisture over that area thanks to recent
rainfall, clear skies, and light winds. There`s a bit more cloud
cover further south over southern MO that`s preventing fog from
becoming too dense but patchy fog is still possible.

The afternoon summertime pop-up thunderstorm pattern returns
through the short term period with 30-60% chance of rain this
afternoon and 30-50% chance of rain Tuesday afternoon. Models
don`t do well with this type of pattern, but mid-level RH
values, PWATs near 1.8", and CAPE around 1100 J/kg support
pulse-like thunderstorms this afternoon mainly along and south
of I-44. As for tomorrow, these atmospheric conditions will be
similar in the afternoon but mainly for areas east of Highway
65. Rainfall amounts are forecast to stay <0.25" and storms will
likely be sub-severe.

Winds will be quite variable for the next couple of days but
will remain light. Today will feature easterly winds while
tomorrow will have southwesterly winds. Today will be partly
cloudy with highs in the mid 80s. Tuesday will be sunnier with
highs reaching the upper 80s. Daytime temperatures will be
below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A series of shortwaves will move through the area bringing
daily storm chances favoring afternoon convection as instability
builds. This pattern will go through the entire long term
period.

NBM QPF is generally around a quarter inch daily though high
precipital water and weak flow will need to be monitored for
the potential for flooding. Temperatures will slowly climb back
toward normals in the lower 90s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Mostly VFR conditions across the area under a scattered low
(3-5kft base) cu field this afternoon, with isolated showers
popping up across southern Missouri. Showers may increase in
coverage between 20Z Mon and 00Z Tues, with best chances for
brief showers/thunderstorms in far southern Missouri. BBG and
SGF terminals reach 30% chances, so prob30, while JLN remains
sub-30% chances. Gusty downburst winds and visibility
reductions from heavy rain within any showers, with the
resulting outflow from storms lingering and potentially
reaching areas not directly impacted by storms, which would
briefly change wind directions. Otherwise, light to calm
southerly winds through the period.

Chance for some patchy mist/fog development again tonight
between 09-12Z, reducing ceilings and/or visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Camden