Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
904 FXUS66 KSGX 282150 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 150 PM PST Fri Nov 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Relatively quiet weather expected through early next week with weak offshore winds Saturday and again Monday. Night and morning coastal low clouds and fog will increase in coverage and spreading a little farther inland each night through the weekend. Next potential storm system will occur Wednesday into Thursday, but confidence in rainfall continues to be low, with chances for dry weather and yet another round of offshore flow mid week increasing. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... The ridge that had previously been overhead has been flattened out but a shortwave trough digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin this weekend. Ultimately, the result of this trough will be minimal, with weak offshore winds in the deserts and mountain passes, with onshore flow dominating for the coasts and valleys. The onshore flow and a weak coastal eddy tonight will help clouds fill in better tonight, likely pushing ashore overnight, with patchy fog expected along the coasts, particularly coastal mesas and portions of western valleys. Otherwise, relatively benign weather expected through the weekend with mostly clear skies and temperatures within 5 degrees of seasonal norms. Yet another inside slider digs through the Great Basin Sunday into Monday, restrengthening the offshore gradient and leading to another round of offshore winds. This event looks to be a touch stronger than Saturday`s offshore flow with easterly/northerly winds extending into the inland valleys, however, the event is still rather weak. The timing of the next disturbance is in the Tuesday-Wednesday window, though a great deal of uncertainty remains in the depth of the trough, with reasonable spread in the ensembles varying from a trough deep enough to bring showers to the area, to a shallower trough that could bring another round of offshore flow with no precipitation. A driving factor in the evolution of this trough and it`s forecast depth is rogue cut-off low well off the southern California coast early-mid next week. If the cut-off low stays close and interacts with the trough, precipiation chances become more likely and offshore flow will be more limited. Ensembles are fairly split in precipitation, with about a 50/50 chance for showers. Even still, should the rainy solution pan out, rainfall totals will be light, generally 0.1" or less, locally up to 0.25" on the coastal slopes. Snow levels between 6500-7000ft, so a few flakes are possible in the mountains if precipitation occurs. The most certain aspect of this forecast will be temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below average. && .AVIATION... 282145Z....Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds will move ashore tonight (45- 60% chance) after 02z Sat with bases slightly higher than this morning, 700-1200ft MSL. Clouds will push 5-10 miles inland. Localized VIS reductions down to 4-6SM, with 1-3SM for elevated coastal terrain. Any low clouds should begin clearing to the coast around 16-17Z. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Munyan AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber