114
FXUS66 KSGX 152152
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
152 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS... A storm system will continue to move through the area,
producing areas of showers, some heavy at times. Intermittent
showers can be expected on Sunday with peaks of sunshine. Another
weaker storm system will move through the area by Monday and
Tuesday, bringing another chance of rain showers as well as greater
snowfall for resort communities. An additional storm system will
approach the region by next Thursday and Friday, but forecast
details remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A potent low pressure system offshore continues to provide abundant
moisture around the northeastern side of the storm system. A heavy
rain band around the system continues to move through the San
Bernardino mountains into the high desert. This has been
associated with rates near 0/50"/hr at times. A secondary rain
band continues to move through the western valleys with rates near
0.25"/hr. Gusty winds have also been observed with the frontal
passage this afternoon with wind gusts over 30 MPH near the coast,
including San Diego. Hi-res models continue to show post frontal
light to moderate showers becoming more intermittent by the late
afternoon into the overnight hours with some showers producing
near 0.50"/hr rain rates. The storm system will lift northeastward
through Sunday over our region, where leftover light to moderate
showers will continue off and on for areas mainly along and west
of the mountains. Like the forecast for tonight, some of these
storms may produce rain rates near one half inch/hour.

A low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska will move
down the coast over the weekend, pushing into Southern California
by Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance is in better agreement on
the timing of this system producing a line of light to moderate
intensity rain showers by late Monday morning into the afternoon
from west to east. Though there is still greater uncertainty on
exact rainfall totals, confidence is high that these will be much
less than those of this weekend. This storm system will also be
colder, dropping 850 mb temps closer to 1-3C, so snow levels are
expected to go down somewhere near 5,500 feet. This will yield a
greater chance for areas like Big Bear to see accumulations
greater than 1 inch. The coldest part of the system will move into
our region on Tuesday, with highs staying in the 30s/40s across
the mountains, with 50s/60s elsewhere.

A brief drier and sunnier day is expected by Wednesday as the early
week system departs. Model guidance begins to diverge on an
additional storm system moving into the region by later next week.
Model guidance begins to diverge on the potential for yet another
storm system to move into the region later in the week. Confidence
is low on the exact placement of this storm system and exactly
where/if we receive any precipitation from this. Model ensembles
show about one half to two thirds of members showing measurable
precipitation for those along and west of the mountains, so stay
tuned as we iron out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...
152130Z...-RA/RA/+RA region-wide with layered bases 1-5 kft MSL and
VIS 1-6SM, locally lower where clouds intersect terrain. Winds
locally gusting above 35kts as front pushes through 00z this
afternoon. Precip coverage decreases, coastal wind gusts ease and
associated CIG/VIS reductions begin to lift from south to north
after 23Z. ISO-SCT -SHRA thereafter with BKN clouds based around
2500-3500 feet MSL.

WSW gusts 25-40 kts continue over mtns and desert slopes through
tonight.

Another round of heavier SHRA along the coasts and valleys along
with breezy southeast winds possible between 08-14Z Sun, bringing
lowered bases and reduced VIS, with high res guidance indicating
highest chances in SD County for impacts. Continued SHRA activity
for the coastal basin through the day Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds 15-20 kts through 23Z will bring steep, mixed seas 5-8
feet throughout the coastal waters. See the Small Craft Advisory for
details. Winds become west-southwesterly and weaken after 22Z.

Additionally, heavy rain will lead to reduced visibility and
thunderstorms embedded within the rain resulting in gusty, erratic
winds, lightning, and possible waterspouts. A Marine Weather
Statement in effect through today contains more details.

Winds strengthen again Monday afternoon ahead of the next storm
system. There is still some uncertainty in exact intensity of winds,
but gusts in excess of 20 knots are possible along with another
round of precipitation.

&&

.BEACHES...
West swell 4-5 feet will combine with a south wind swell to create
elevated surf 4-6 feet with local sets to 7 feet through the late
afternoon. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange
     County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal
     Areas-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-
     San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-
     Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Westerink