941
FXUS66 KSGX 160522
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
922 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A pacific storm will continue impact the region, producing
scattered showers through tonight, some showers could produce locally
heavy rainfall at times. Intermittent showers can be expected on
Sunday with periods of sunshine. Another weaker system will move
through the area on Monday and Tuesday, bringing another chance
of rain showers as well as greater snowfall for resort communities.
An additional storm system will approach the region by next
Thursday and Friday, but forecast details remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The low pressure system centered to our west is beginning to move
east. The bands of widespread rain - heavy at times - have moved
to the east with the frontal boundary. Behind the boundary in the
colder air, scattered showers are moving from southwest to
northeast across the region. These showers will mostly be light
but have the potential for brief, locally heavy downpours.
Additional rainfall amounts from tonight through Sunday evening
will range from one third inch to three quarters inch in the
coastal areas and inland valleys. The mountain slopes could
receive an additional 1-1.5 inches and the deserts a few
hundredths.

The strong southerly winds associated with the frontal bands have
also moved east into AZ and at this hour, winds are mostly
gusting to 20 mph or less. There were several lightning strikes
this afternoon over the lower deserts but those thunderstorms have
also moved east. One lightning discharge was detected in the last
hour and it was over Los Angeles County. Additional strikes will
be possible through tonight. There could be a brief period without
rainfall Sunday evening/night as a dynamic ridge of high pressure
between the low pressure systems moves over the region.

From previous discussion...
The storm system will move northeastward through Sunday over our
region, where leftover light to moderate showers will continue off
and on for areas mainly along and west of the mountains. Like the
forecast for tonight, some of these storms may produce rain rates
near one half inch/hour.

A low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska will move
down the coast over the weekend, pushing into Southern California
by Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance is in better agreement on
the timing of this system producing a line of light to moderate
intensity rain showers by late Monday morning into the afternoon
moving from west to east. Though there is still some uncertainty
on exact rainfall totals, confidence is high that these will be
much less than those of this weekend. This system will also be
colder, dropping 850 mb temps closer to 1-3C, so snow levels are
expected to go down somewhere near 5,500 feet. This will yield a
greater chance for areas like Big Bear to see accumulations
greater than 1 inch. The coldest part of the system will move into
our region on Tuesday, with highs staying in the 30s/40s across
the mountains, with 50s/60s elsewhere.

A brief drier and sunnier day is expected by Wednesday as the early
week system departs. Model guidance begins to diverge on an
additional storm system moving into the region by later next week.
Model guidance begins to diverge on the potential for yet another
storm system to move into the region later in the week. Confidence
is low on the exact placement of this storm system and exactly
where/if we receive any precipitation from this. Model ensembles
show about one half to two thirds of members showing measurable
precipitation for those along and west of the mountains, so stay
tuned as we iron out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...
150500Z...Patchy -RA and scattered SHRA continue across coastal
basin. Main BKN-OVC layer at 3000-3500 feet MSL with SCT layers
beneath. BKN-OVC 1500-2500 feet MSL in RA/SHRA. VIS generally
greater than 6SM, locally 2-6SM where there is rain and 0-2SM where
clouds intersect terrain. SHRA to continue this evening with same
cloud bases and VIS reductions as tonight.

Between 08-16z Sun, more intense RA/SHRA along the coasts and
valleys along with breezy southeast winds bringing lowered bases and
reduced VIS, with high res guidance indicating highest chances in SD
County for impacts.

After 20Z Sun, -SHRA becomes more isolated, though continuing
through the evening.

WSW gusts 25-40 kts continue over mtns and desert slopes through
tonight. Desert sites to continue to have VCSH with the occasional
SHRA making it over the mountains and briefly reducing VIS/cigs.


Another round of heavier SHRA along the coasts and valleys along
with breezy southeast winds possible between 08-14Z Sun, bringing
lowered bases and reduced VIS, with high res guidance indicating
highest chances in SD County for impacts. Continued SHRA activity
for the coastal basin through the day Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Organized lines of showers will accompany south winds at 15-20 kts
and choppy seas tonight and Sunday morning. Seas 5-7 feet throughout
the coastal waters lower significantly by Sunday morning.


Winds strengthen again Monday afternoon ahead of the next storm
system. There is still some uncertainty in exact intensity of winds,
but gusts in excess of 20 knots are possible along with another
round of precipitation.

&&

.BEACHES...
Elevated surf 4-6 feet with sets to 7 feet continue for west facing
beaches, though reduce gradually overnight. Surf becomes elevated
once more with an additional storm system late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink