246
FXUS64 KSHV 181118
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
618 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

 - Near triple-digit high temperatures will continue throughout
   this week, maintaining an elevated risk for heat-related
   illnesses.

 - Increasingly dry soils and parched vegetation resulting from
   flash drought will support an increased fire weather threat.

 - Although rain will be hard to come by, a few opportunities will
   exist for isolated convection over the next week as the upper
   ridge axis retrogrades slightly farther west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The upper-level ridge responsible for the ongoing dry conditions
and pervasive heat will continue to maintain a hold across the
ArkLaTex through the entirety of the forecast period with near
triple digit afternoon high temperatures expected each day through
Sunday.

On Tuesday, the center of the upper-ridge will retrograde west
bringing temperatures as high as 105 degrees across mainly
northeast Texas and portions of southeast Oklahoma with the
remainder of the ArkLaTex up to 5 degrees cooler. Based on recent
trends in both observations and forecast models with regard to
afternoon relative humidity values, no strong indicators exist to
suggest the need to upgrade the ongoing Heat Advisory to an
Extreme Heat Warning, despite temperatures forecast to be slightly
warmer across portions of the ArkLaTex.

The combination of the ridge shifting west and a weak frontal
boundary lingering across parts of Arkansas into Mississippi will
allow for the possibility for isolated showers and thunderstorms
emerging across south Arkansas and north Louisiana on Tuesday
afternoon at the time of peak heating.

From Wednesday onward, the pattern remains fairly unchanged. Any
improvements in temperatures will be nuanced only a couple of
degrees cooler as the center of the high retreats westward into
the four corners region.

By the end of the work week into the weekend, northwest flow to
prevail areawide atop the remnants of a weak frontal boundary
across the region. Models have not yet come into agreement with
introducing substantial precip into the forecast, but the GFS
seems look promising on Friday night into Saturday morning. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Some isolated but elevated convection has just recently developed
in the vicinity of TXK extending north and east to near Little
Rock but cloud bases across SW AR are currently running north of
10kft and like Monday Morning, this activity will likely dissipate
shortly after sunrise. Elsewhere, cannot rule out brief IFR
ceilings near LFK early this morning but this moisture is very
shallow and will likely mix out after sunrise as well. Otherwise,
we will wait on daytime heating for a weak AC field to develop
near 7-10kft by afternoon before dissipating shortly after sunset.


13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but spotters are
encouraged to report any wildfire activity to your local officials
and fire department personnel.

/059/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 104  80 102  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLU 104  79 101  78 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ 104  75 104  75 /  20  20  20  20
TXK 104  80 103  79 /  20  20   0   0
ELD 102  78 102  78 /  20  20  20  20
TYR 104  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
GGG 105  79 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFK 103  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13