262
FXUS64 KSHV 031153
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
653 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly for
   our eastern half of the forecast area.

 - Dry and warmer conditions will return to the area starting on
   Thursday before cooler air moves back in on Saturday.

 - Widespread rain chances return by Saturday afternoon and
   continue into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Surface analysis this morning shows a cool front that stretches
from central Texas into northeast Texas and then into southwest
Arkansas. There will not be much progression of this frontal
boundary through the rest of the night before it starts to wash
out by this afternoon. As it begins to diminish this afternoon,
there will remain some potential of some convection that could
develop across the eastern half of the forecast area. Today will
easily be the "coolest" day we will see for the rest of the week
as temperatures will range from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees
across the region. Looking aloft...northwest flow remains in place
across our area in association with the large trough over the
eastern CONUS and it appears this pattern will continue into early
Thursday morning. At the same time, high pressure is going to
begin building across the southwest CONUS and will start to take
hold on the area by Thursday. This will be greatly evident on
Thursday as afternoon highs return to the lower to mid 90s across
the region. This pattern will continue for Friday, which will also
be our "hottest" day of the week, with temperatures once again
mainly ranging from the lower to mid 90s, but I would not be
surprised if some locations reach into the upper 90s.

Moving into the weekend, the ridge begins to flatten out some and
another large trough will begin push back into the eastern CONUS.
An associated cool front and some increased chances for rain will
keep areas north of I-30 in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Saturday
while the rest of the region will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s. The cooler air will push further to the south and a stronger
cold front will approach from the north as the upper-level trough
continues to dig into the east-central CONUS on Sunday.
Temperatures will range from the lower 70s across our northern
zones to the mid 80s across our southern zones. The cold front
will have pushed through the region by Monday, and temperatures
will be wonderful. Highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s
across the region, I think most areas could stay below 85 degrees.
For reference, these temperatures are around 5 to 15 degrees below
seasonable normals. As is common sometimes later in September, the
temperature roller coaster continues as we head into the middle of
next week as temperatures look to slowly begin to increase again
starting on Tuesday.

While we will remain dry across the region from Wednesday night
into Friday night, a more unsettled pattern will settle in from
early Saturday morning through the start of next week. Our 7-day
QPF amounts are showing around an inch of rainfall for our western
zones, all of which are expected to fall in the D5-D7 range. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Pockets of SHRA and TSRA are ongoing this morning across the
airspace, with impacts primarily to the SHV terminal in the last
two hours. Elsewhere, vicinity convection has managed to avoid the
local terminals for the most part. This will be harder to come by
this afternoon, primarily for terminals east of I-49 where hi-res
is targeting SHRA/TSRA redevelopment within the afternoon CU
field between 5-7kft. By the evening, what does develop
convectively should dissipate, along with the aforementioned CU
field. That being said, with terminal winds trending calmer
overnight, BR/FG potential will increase, with the greatest signal
across the eastern zones of the airspace where showers and storms
will be present later this afternoon. Flight conditions of at
least MVFR/IFR will be possible, with the chance that periods of
LIFR exist. Elsewhere, VSBY reduction probs are lower but non-
zero as instances of MVFR and some IFR cannot be ruled out.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  70  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  89  69  95  69 /  40  10   0   0
DEQ  87  64  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  68  96  72 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  87  65  93  67 /  30   0   0   0
TYR  87  67  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  89  67  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  92  67  96  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...53