843
FXUS64 KSHV 061159
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
659 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

 - Increased rain chances with thunderstorms are expected this
   weekend. Those with outdoor activities scheduled should plan
   accordingly. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

 - Periods of locally heavy rainfall through the weekend will
   bring a localized flooding threat, particularly along and
   northwest of the Interstate 49 corridor. Remember, turn around,
   don`t drown!

 - Peak afternoon heat index values by the middle of next week
   should be near or above 100 degrees. Summertime heat safety
   plans should be reviewed and readied.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A broad upper-level low across west Texas and a broad upper-level
ridge across the northern Gulf of America to maintain a southwest
flow pattern across the ArkLaTex through the weekend. A surface
boundary along with a slug of increased moisture, driving dewpoint
values into the mid 70s, to surge north across the region on
Saturday triggering widespread convection during the time of peak
heating. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some storms.
Additionally, a disturbance within the upper-flow translating
east across east and northeast Texas could generate convection
ahead of the gulf sourced boundary allowing for the potential for
a few strong storms along and north of I-20 across mainly north
Louisiana into south Arkansas during the evening hours.

Southwest flow to persist into Sunday maintaining an unsettled
weather pattern across the ArkLaTex with diurnally driven
convection again expected.

By Sunday night, however, upper-level ridging in the eastern Gulf
to build west, eventually becoming firmly established across the
southern CONUS through the remainder of the forecast period ending
Friday. Subsidence associated with the ridge will lead to drier
conditions with high temperatures soaring into the mid 90s from
mid to late week. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

For the 06/12z TAFs, a broad area of rain and thunderstorms has
developed across North and Central Texas and will spread east
across the area affecting all TAF sites, especially as additional
development occurs later today. KTYR should be affected very
early in the period. Ceilings may be somewhat variable between VFR
and MVFR due to the convection. The precip should end from
southwest to northeast beginning shortly after 07/00z and should
exit the area completely by 07/06z, but then ceilings are expected
to quickly fall into the IFR range for the remainder of the TAF
cycle.

/Nuttall/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  74  87  76 /  60  50  70  10
MLU  87  74  88  76 /  70  30  70  20
DEQ  82  71  83  72 /  90  80  90  50
TXK  87  73  87  75 /  70  60  80  20
ELD  85  72  86  74 /  60  40  80  20
TYR  86  73  88  75 /  70  40  70  10
GGG  86  73  89  75 /  60  40  70  10
LFK  86  73  89  75 /  70  30  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...09