284
FXUS64 KSHV 250543
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1243 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- A round of thunderstorms with the capability of producing heavy
  rain is becoming more likely to form across parts of southern
  Arkansas early Saturday morning into the afternoon.

- Temperature maximums will continue to increase above normal
  (into the upper 90s) through the end of the weekend.

- Hazardous heat returns through the work week with elevated
  potentials of temperature maximums in the lower 100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A stationary front continues to linger across southern Arkansas
with attendant upper troughing impinging upon the long-standing
ridge axis across the southern Great Plains. As it does so, the
window opens for some convective activity as high-resolution
guidance suggests a round of development in the pre-dawn hours of
Saturday morning. Flash flooding remains a concern due to PWAT
values near 2 inches (at the 90th percentile of climatology)
boosting rainfall efficiency while weak steering flow aloft
promotes some backbuilding of the thunderstorms that end up
forming. All southern Arkansas counties (going into the Ark-La-
Miss) are at some risk of heavy rains (2-3 inches) through
Saturday with any convection that can establish itself in a very
moist atmosphere.

Medium-range guidance boosts the strength of the aforementioned
ridge aloft by Sunday, allowing for light southerly surface flow
(less relief from Gulf moisture) and weak northerly flow aloft
(displacing more shortwaves and upstream convection). Temperature
maximums at or over 100 degrees F are still more likely once again
by next week with a 60% to 80% probability of occurrence next
Monday through Wednesday. Long-range guidance suggests some "light
at the end of the tunnel" with ridging finally starting to break
down by the end of next week and the end of the month. A return to
normal summertime heat (mid-90s) is likely as a result by this
time with a coinciding increase in the potential for productive
rounds of convection to form in the afternoon with daytime
heating. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

For the 25/00z TAF update...Radar imagery is still showing a few
light showers across portions of the area. I don`t think that any
of terminals will see a direct impact, although a shower or two
may come close to KMLU so I have maintained mention of VCSH.
Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions prevail for all terminals
with some MVFR ceilings expected once again tonight and towards
tomorrow morning before we return to BKN250. I do have some
mention of VCSH for KMLU, KTXK, KTYR, and KGGG around 25/15z with
-RA and SHRA for KELD as some showers could move through during
 the overnight hours. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Arkansas spotters should be prepared to relay any reports of
flash flooding through Saturday. Any reports of hazardous weather
to the National Weather Service are appreciated. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  78  97  78 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  95  77  98  78 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  94  74  98  74 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  97  78 100  78 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  92  75  97  76 /  40  10   0   0
TYR  97  77  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  96  77  98  77 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  95  74  96  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...33