146
FXUS64 KSHV 161136
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
636 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - Mostly dry conditions will continue through at least Thursday
   morning, with only a stray shower or thunderstorm possible in
   the afternoon hours.

 - Heat Advisories remain today, expanding westward into East
   Texas and Southwest Arkansas.


 - All eyes remain hyper-focused on the tropics as there is a 40%
   chance of some tropical development across the northern Gulf
   Coast by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Quiet conditions expected tonight through at least Thursday
morning across the Four State Region, as high pressure at the
surface and aloft will remain over the area. However, it will be
hot and humid. A Heat Advisory has been expanded to include most
of the forecast area, only excluding McCurtain County (OK) and the
extreme western sections of our East Texas counties. Afternoon
highs today will climb into the mid to upper 90s areawide, with a
couple isolated triple digit readings not out of the question. As
we move into Thursday, all eyes will be on the northern Gulf.
Models continue to hint at the possibility of a sfc feature
developing late Wednesday night into Thursday morning just off the
Florida panhandle. This low could develop some tropical features
as it is expected to push westward towards the Louisiana Coast by
Thursday afternoon. There isn`t consensus on where this system
moves beyond Thursday, as some models bring it onshore in
Louisiana, while some push it towards the Texas Gulf Coast over
the weekend. Regardless, this feature should bring widespread rain
chances back into the region, especially for locations south of
the Interstate 30 corridor. There is some concern of locally heavy
rain across our Deep East Texas and Louisiana zones, which has
prompted the Weather Prediction Center to issue a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall in the aforementioned locations on Friday and
Saturday. Please continue to monitor our forecast as we approach
this event for up-to-date information, as Flood products could be
needed.

By the end of the weekend into early next week, upper ridging is
expected to build in across the Southern Plains into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. This will result in dry, humid, and hot
conditions returning back across the region. Afternoon temperatures
will return into the mid to upper 90s, with some triple digit
readings possible. Heat Advisories will likely be needed, as heat
indices are expected to climb above 105 degrees over the most of
the area. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the 16/06Z TAFs, as high pressure builds overhead, VFR
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast period. An
afternoon Cu field is expected to develop, but thunderstorm
development is not looking likely enough to bear mentioning at
this time. Light south winds will become southwesterly into the
day at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of up to 15 kts
possible.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Activation of storm spotter are not expected today through
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  77  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  98  77  98  76 /   0   0  20  10
DEQ  95  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  96  73  97  75 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26