825
FXUS64 KSHV 291017
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
517 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

 - Flood Watch is now in effect until 1PM this afternoon.

 - The backdoor front is moving toward I-10 now with NE winds, but
   the upper level winds from the NW will linger for days yet.
   This will be keeping skies mostly gray for much of the weekend
   with generally lighter rainfall amounts through Sunday.

 - Labor Day is looking much drier with sunshine returning and
   just a slight chance for some rain south of I-20. The best news
   is that meteorological fall is a few days early.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

The NE winds have returned with our cool front/MCS outflow and
are now blowing well south of I-20 along with cooler readings in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Showers and thunderstorms continue
to develop and intensify moving across I-30 into SW AR and N LA.
Meanwhile, the big late day initial push has moved through our
southern tier of Co./Pa. just over last few hours.

Rainfall so far has been limited by the progressive movement, but
a few areas saw some storm training, but much more of that will
remain possible as the NW flow continues to send weak disturbances
down I-49 tonight and to some extent into the weekend. The flood
watch indicates where most of these heavier elements and
potential training will occur through about lunch time. Skies
will remain cloudy and rain remains possible for most of the
weekend proper, but amounts will be lighter Saturday and Sunday
overall as NE winds veer to E with a surface low riding along the
front to our south.

The WPC maintains Marginal Risk EROs for the weekend as the
ground continues to wet. The heavier amounts will be ending by
this afternoon, but the upper level NW flow over the cooler air
mass will keep skies gray and rain possible for this extended
period of needed rainfall. The SPC continues a Marginal Risk for
mostly Toledo Bend country of TX and LA for the day one outlook.

Labor Day is looking quite grand as the sunshine returns to end
the holiday weekend and the best part of this early fallish story
is the cooler temps in the lack of late summer sunshine until
Monday. The new week will see some rain in the September bucket as
a secondary air mass pushes out of the Canada and down the MS
River Valley keeping the below average temperatures on a roll. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms currently
impacting or in the vicinity of most of our terminals attm with
the exception of the TYR/GGG and LFK terminals but convection is
forecast to expand to include those terminals as well near or
shortly after sunrise. Ceilings along the leading edge of this
convection and north of the convection range from low MVFR to LIFR
conditions with in and out IFR/MVFR VSBYs with the more intense
convection. For the 12z TAF package, feel like we should get this
convection south of the TXK/ELD later this morning, and south of
the I-20 terminal locations by midday/afternoon and through the
LFK terminal by afternoon/evening. May see a slow improvement to
ceilings along the I-20 Corridor buy later this afternoon. Did
reintroduce VCSH late tonight through the end of the TAF period as
there are some indications of nocturnal redevelopment late
tonight, especially across our NE TX terminals into the SHV
terminal with those MVFR ceilings continuing.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Spotter activation may be needed overnight through noon on Friday
for potential isolated severe thunderstorms activity and for any
flooding. Regardless of activation, any reports of flooding
especially will be appreciated for the Flood Watch verification.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  72  87  72 /  90  30  40  20
MLU  80  68  86  67 /  90  30  40  20
DEQ  77  65  83  66 /  50  20  20  20
TXK  80  68  86  68 /  70  20  30  20
ELD  79  64  86  64 /  70  20  30  10
TYR  83  72  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
GGG  81  70  85  70 /  80  30  50  30
LFK  89  72  86  71 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     021.

OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     125-126-138.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13