369
FXUS64 KSHV 151741 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

 - Heat advisory headlines continue today with future extensions
   likely for Wednesday.

 - Rain chances remain slim to none through the remainder of this
   week into the first half of the weekend due to upper ridging.

 - The upper-level ridge is expected to weaken by Sunday with an
   upper low drifting westward over the northern Gulf, providing
   for increasing rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Persistence forecasting relies on the past to help predict the
future, and let`s just say it`s getting old fast at this point.
Our extended stretch of late summer heat, well above average for
mid-September, has the remainder of this week to go with a decent
chance of adding more triple-digit high temperatures to our tally.
Most areas will push into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees once
again this afternoon. Then we repeat the cycle each day through
the end of this week as the center of ridge axis slowly migrates
back across our region. So it`s not out of the questions that we
could actually see high temperatures trend a degree or two higher
as we move later in the week, but who`s counting at this point?!

Meanwhile, rain chances are barely worth a mention with only the
slimmest of chances at landing under a brief shower or storm each
afternoon this week. With the need for heat advisories likely for
at least a few more days, heat safety precautions should continue
to be top of mind this week with all outdoor recreation and work
activities. This dangerous heat risk will pose a threat for rapid
onset of heat-related illnesses if precautions are not properly
adhered to while spending extended time outdoors.

As we have referenced in recent discussions, changes do appear to
be finally on the horizon. Model guidance continues to favor a
break in this heat by late in the upcoming weekend as an upper low
shifts westward across the northern Gulf. This low should help to
shunt the ridge farther westward, allowing for increasing moisture
from the Gulf and an uptick in rain chances by Sunday. Additional
rain chances and cooler temperatures should also extend into the
following week as a cold front appears poised to shift south into
our area just in time for the first day of fall on September 22nd.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 15/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has developed across the region this afternoon,
and will linger before diminishing early this evening. Isolated
convection may develop this afternoon mainly across portions of N
LA/Srn AR, but low confidence precludes VCTS mention in the
ELD/MLU terminals attm. Some cirrus may advance NW into the area
later this afternoon/tonight, but otherwise, SKC will prevail,
before another scattered cu field develops by late morning across
the region. Some patchy FG/LIFR cigs may again develop near LFK
around daybreak Wednesday, but should be less than what was
observed this morning, with any FG/low cigs lifting/scattering out
by 14Z. SSW winds 5-10kts this afternoon will become Light SE/Lt
and VRB after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  98  77  97 /   0  20   0   0
MLU  76  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  98  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  76  98  76  98 /   0  10   0   0
ELD  74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  76  98  76  98 /   0  10   0   0
GGG  76 100  75 100 /   0  20   0   0
LFK  75  95  75  95 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...15