872
FXUS64 KSHV 030552
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1252 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

 - Wetting rains will continue through Saturday, with the best
   rain chances (40%-60%) lingering mostly across Deep East Texas
   into Louisiana.

 - Lightning and isolated street flooding can`t be ruled out as impacts
   from the strongest thunderstorms south of I-20.

 - Drier air will become warmer and cooler more efficiently later
   next week with some temperature maximums/minimums in the lower
   90s/lower 60s respectively.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A wet pattern continues for the Four State Region as troughing
aloft and a weak frontal boundary draped near the surface
maintains some convective potential into Sunday before tapering
off into early next week. High-resolution guidance suggests an
additional trough axis shifting onshore during this time to drive
the last predominant batch of showers and thunderstorms to develop
mostly across Deep East Texas into Louisiana. Medium-range
guidance suggests a pause of the wet weather pattern by Monday
into the middle of next week as post-frontal ridging and a dry,
quasi-zonal to northwesterly flow aloft sets back in. This drier
air will boost efficient heating/cooling (dew points in the 50s)
for a warming trend with above average temperature maximums in the
lower 90s. A preview of regular Fall weather still continues at
night with temperature minimums in the lower 60s/upper 50s later
next week. Remaining WPC QPF values range at 0.25-0.75 inches in
an increasing gradient south of I-20 as a result of this week`s
expected activity. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For the 06z TAF package...currently seeing some showers trying to
progress north and east into our NE TX airspace attm with a little
more in the way of convection south of the LFK terminal
retrograding westward. Latest highres output suggests the NE TX
precip may stick around through sunrise and perhaps until mid to
late morning before it begins dissipating. Meanwhile, convection
across Central and East Central Louisiana should expand north and
west by late afternoon into the evening hours or towards the tail
end of this TAF package. Weak cold front across our northern
airspace will quick backdoor its way south and west into our
region and in the wake of this boundary will be the possibility
of MVFR and/or IFR ceilings through at least the mid morning
hours. Tried to be optimistic with low VFR conditions returning
to most areas by afternoon. Look for mostly NNE to ENE winds
overnight and through the day Saturday with speeds generally near
or below 10kts through the TAF period.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  67  83  65 /  20  20  20   0
MLU  88  67  82  64 /  30  40  40   0
DEQ  77  59  85  56 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  77  62  83  59 /  30  10  10   0
ELD  82  60  84  58 /  20  20  20   0
TYR  78  67  83  65 /  50  10  10   0
GGG  81  64  85  63 /  40  20  10   0
LFK  86  68  83  67 /  30  30  30   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13