847
FXUS64 KSHV 292320
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

 - Dry and mild conditions will continue with increasing clouds
   before showers return overnight Friday into Saturday

 - Scattered showers are expected to continue through the day
   Saturday, gradually tapering off from west to east, making for
   a damp evening for our trick-or-treaters.

 - Another round of rainfall and potentially organized
   thunderstorms looks to arrive Monday into Tuesday as a potent
   cold front approaches by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

As this work week approaches its end, the ridging over the south-
central CONUS will be nudged east and out of our region as a
shortwave trough takes shape on its western flank over New Mexico,
Texas and Oklahoma. This troughing will drift northeast into the
early weekend, with a vaguely defined weakness over Kansas and into
the Ozarks. This position as well as the pseudo-zonal flow aloft and
southerly surface flow will inject sufficient moisture into the
ArkLaTex to support shower development for Halloween.

In the meantime, before this pattern shift, mild temperatures and
quiet conditions will continue, with overnight lows dropping into
the middle 50s east to lower 60s west. As the shortwave emerges
to our west, moisture being steered into the region will favor
more consistent cloud cover, trending mostly cloudy to overcast
overnight and continuing into tomorrow, which will help moderate
temperatures, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s north
and west to lower 80s southeast.

The arrival of rainfall has accelerated slightly on the most recent
NBM consensus, favoring arrival as soon as Friday afternoon and
evening for our westernmost zones of deep east Texas, spreading
areawide overnight and continuing through the day Saturday. Also of
note, PoPs have trended upwards into the 50 to 70 percent range,
indicating increasing confidence. Bear in mind, this is not
representative of coverage, which may still trend spotty to
scattered. Trends still favor rain coming to an end from west to
east after sunset, but the speed of this clearing is still
uncertain, and area trick-or-treaters ought to be prepared to
dodge some showers. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible. A
few lingering showers are possible towards dawn Sunday across our
easternmost zones, with a dry second half of the weekend to
follow.

The shortwave looks on track to push east through the day Sunday,
leaving the remainder of the weekend quiet and warm as a quickly
building ridge sets up and is promptly ushered to the east by the
next system taking shape over the Pacific Northwest. As a closed low
makes its way east over the Rockies, its associated trough will dig
southwards, maintaining the closed low as it ejects east over the
southern Plains of north Texas and Oklahoma. Compared to previous
runs, the latest GFS depicts a reduced deepening of the low, but
extended southward reach of the amplified trough. The closed low, if
it retains its definition, looks to keep along the I-40 corridor
from Oklahoma into Arkansas, keeping the ArkLaTex in a southwest
flow regime aloft with southerly surface flow as the attendant cold
front approaches. Bearing in mind that numerous variables remain in
play, rainfall chances look to increase Monday afternoon into
Tuesday night, with the latest GFS and Euro actually in agreement
that the best chance for an organized line of storms looks to be
around mid-day Tuesday. As of this writing, the confidence has not
yet increased enough to advertise an organized threat, but as we
enter our fall severe weather season, we are closely monitoring the
evolving forecast for early next week.

Behind the cold front, temperatures look to return to near-
seasonable values, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s
by mid to late next week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

For the 30/00z TAF update...Despite some lower clouds across
portions of the area, VFR conditions should prevail throughout
this TAF period. That being said, BKN to OVC skies currently
prevail, and we will see OVC take over all terminals this evening
and into the overnight hours, which will then hang on through the
rest of the period. Winds will be light throughout this period,
and generally out of the east. There is some potential of some
rainfall towards the end of the period, but will wait on future
updates to introduce it once timing becomes more clear. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Spotter activation may be needed today in the event of wildfire
development. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  79  62  78 /  10   0  40  60
MLU  57  82  62  81 /   0   0  40  50
DEQ  58  79  55  75 /   0   0  30  70
TXK  61  79  59  75 /   0   0  30  70
ELD  54  79  57  77 /   0   0  40  60
TYR  63  79  61  78 /  10  10  50  60
GGG  59  79  59  78 /  10   0  40  60
LFK  59  79  61  81 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33