395
FXUS64 KSHV 291942
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
242 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

 - An active upper level pattern will keep rain chances over
   portions of the region through the Labor Day weekend.

 - Rain and cloud cover will result in slightly below average
   afternoon temperatures over the next several days.

 - Drier weather will arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

It has been a rainy morning over a large portion of the Four State
Region today. Since midnight, several locations have reported
rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 5 inches. At the Shreveport
Regional Airport, 4.62 inches of rain fell between midnight and
1 PM today. This is a record daily rainfall for Aug.29th, beating
the previous record of 3.67 inches in 1911. The remainder of the
forecast today calls for cloudy and cooler conditions to remain,
as yesterday`s stalled front has shifted just south of the
region. Highs today will struggle to reach 80 degrees, with the
exception being across portions of Deep East TX, due to its closer
proximity to the front. However, those locations will only top out
in the low to mid 80s. As for rain chances, the trend will
continue downward for the remainder of today, as a MCV across East
TX continues to slowly move southeastward out the area along the
northwest flow aloft. Because of this, the Flash Flood Watch was
allowed to expire at 1 PM. Slight to chance POPS will remain
across the region this afternoon, generally along and south of the
I-20 corridor, but additional rainfall should remain on the
lighter side. With the front stalled just south of our forecast
zones, decided to leave some slight to chance POPS for locations
along and south of US HWY 84 corridor tonight.

A series of disturbances will move across the region along northwest
flow, bringing additional rain chances to portions of the Four
State Region over the weekend. On Saturday, most of the precip
looks to be for locations along and south of the I-20 corridor.
Rain chances should be more widespread on Sunday, especially for
our East Texas and Southeast Oklahoma zones, along with locations
in SW Arkansas and Western Louisiana along and west of the
Interstate 49 corridor. Northwest flow will bring a couple of
shortwave troughs through the region on Monday and Tuesday next
week, resulting in more widespread rain chances over the region.
By Wednesday, a much stronger cool front moves into the region.
This should yield drier weather along with cooler conditions, as
long-term progs are suggesting overnight lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s by the end of next week. /20/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Convection is rapidly dissipating in coverage and intensity to
begin the 18z TAF package and that should continue to be the trend
as we move into the evening and overnight hours. What is left
behind is a mixture of MVFR/IFR and even LIFR ceilings with the
million dollar question being will those lower ceilings continue
into the overnight hours. For now, did show some improvement
ceiling wise overnight across our northern and eastern airspace
while keeping our NE TX terminals with IFR and/or LIFR ceilings
most of the night. Cannot rule out the development of patchy
drizzle or fog overnight as well but confidence is not very high
on this occurring. CAMS are indicating the possibility of widely
scattered convection redeveloping prior to sunrise and through the
morning hours Saturday across the southwest half of our airspace
so did make mention of this with VCSH wording.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  71  87  73 /  90  20  20  10
MLU  78  68  88  69 /  90  10  10   0
DEQ  76  64  85  67 /  40  10  10  10
TXK  76  67  88  70 /  60  10  10  10
ELD  75  63  88  65 /  70  10  10   0
TYR  79  71  84  72 /  60  30  30  30
GGG  78  70  86  71 /  80  20  20  20
LFK  83  72  88  71 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13