303
FXUS64 KSHV 140557 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1257 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Current temperatures are very nice behind a gusty late day sea
breeze push, which is almost to Texarkana, where it is still a
warm 83 degrees. Everywhere else is upper 70s north, but we have
mid 70s along I-20 and several lower 70s already well to the
south. In fact, Lufkin was already a degree cooler than our
previous forecast low. So we lowered there a couple and a few
other mid 70s have been bumped down into the lower 70s category.
Sky is looking good and we still have a chance for some convective
arrivals around predawn through mid morning. The SPC maintains
there Marginal Risk across our northern tier of Counties, as
storms string together over E OK/W & central AR. Light NW flow
under the upper low will propagate this activity southward as the
cool pool builds overnight behind continued development. The only
other change is too expand southward the predawn to mid morning
PoPs/WX grid. Zones updated and new graphics with these minor
changes are in the works. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

IFR/low MVFR cigs have begun to develop across the Wrn sections of
E TX near TYR/GGG, beneath the extensive elevated cigs in place
across E TX/N LA/Srn AR from convection which has diminished
across SE TX. These low cigs will continue to develop/expand
across E TX through the overnight hours, and eventually into
portions of N LA/SW AR by/after 12Z, before gradually
lifting/returning to VFR by late morning. These cigs should
eventually scatter out by midday through the afternoon, although
scattered convection should develop by mid to late morning over SE
TX, and should build N into Deep E TX, possibly affecting the LFK
terminal around/after 18Z, and possibly as far N as TYR/GGG by
21-22Z. Have delayed VCTS mention for the latter terminals until
this time, although this convection should diminish around or
shortly after 00Z Sunday with the loss of heating. A convective
complex may develop now entering NW KS may build SE and may
intensify late this morning through the afternoon across OK, with
its remnants possibly entering SE OK/SW AR and portions of N LA
late this afternoon/early this evening. However, confidence with
exact timing and coverage (and whether this convection will
materialize or not) remains low, and thus, have not added VCTS
mention to the SW AR/N LA terminals as of yet and will re-evaluate
again for the 12Z TAF package. While elevated convective debris
will likely linger over the area this evening, any IFR/low MVFR
cig development late tonight will be dependent as to whether any
convection is able to build SE into the region by this evening. S
winds 5kts or less overnight will increase to 6-9kts after 15Z.
/15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  93  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
MLU  74  92  75  88 /  30  60  30  50
DEQ  71  89  71  88 /  10  30  10  20
TXK  74  91  75  90 /  10  40  10  30
ELD  71  90  72  89 /  20  50  20  40
TYR  75  90  75  89 /  10  20  10  20
GGG  73  90  73  89 /  10  30  10  30
LFK  73  92  74  91 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
AVIATION...15