146
FXUS64 KSHV 292319
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
619 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

 - An active upper level pattern will keep rain chances over
   portions of the region through the Labor Day weekend.

 - Rain and cloud cover will result in slightly below average
   afternoon temperatures over the next several days.

 - Drier weather will arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

It has been a rainy morning over a large portion of the Four State
Region today. Since midnight, several locations have reported
rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 5 inches. At the Shreveport
Regional Airport, 4.62 inches of rain fell between midnight and
1 PM today. This is a record daily rainfall for Aug.29th, beating
the previous record of 3.67 inches in 1911. The remainder of the
forecast today calls for cloudy and cooler conditions to remain,
as yesterday`s stalled front has shifted just south of the
region. Highs today will struggle to reach 80 degrees, with the
exception being across portions of Deep East TX, due to its closer
proximity to the front. However, those locations will only top out
in the low to mid 80s. As for rain chances, the trend will
continue downward for the remainder of today, as a MCV across East
TX continues to slowly move southeastward out the area along the
northwest flow aloft. Because of this, the Flash Flood Watch was
allowed to expire at 1 PM. Slight to chance POPS will remain
across the region this afternoon, generally along and south of the
I-20 corridor, but additional rainfall should remain on the
lighter side. With the front stalled just south of our forecast
zones, decided to leave some slight to chance POPS for locations
along and south of US HWY 84 corridor tonight.

A series of disturbances will move across the region along northwest
flow, bringing additional rain chances to portions of the Four
State Region over the weekend. On Saturday, most of the precip
looks to be for locations along and south of the I-20 corridor.
Rain chances should be more widespread on Sunday, especially for
our East Texas and Southeast Oklahoma zones, along with locations
in SW Arkansas and Western Louisiana along and west of the
Interstate 49 corridor. Northwest flow will bring a couple of
shortwave troughs through the region on Monday and Tuesday next
week, resulting in more widespread rain chances over the region.
By Wednesday, a much stronger cool front moves into the region.
This should yield drier weather along with cooler conditions, as
long-term progs are suggesting overnight lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s by the end of next week. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For the 30/00z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing some
lingering showers across portions of deep east Texas, but I don`t
think there will be much impact to any of our terminals at this
time. Ceilings have been low all afternoon and will continue to
follow this same pattern through the evening with some lower
ceilings overtaking most terminals overnight. As a result,
widespread MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected overnight with
some spotty LIFR CIGs as well. I have maintained some mention of
VCSH and BR for some terminals due to some drizzle or patchy fog
that could develop, mainly for everyone except KSHV and KTXK.
Otherwise, winds should remain light throughout this period. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  71  87  73 /  90  20  20  10
MLU  77  68  88  69 /  90  10  10   0
DEQ  75  64  85  67 /  40  10  10  10
TXK  75  67  88  70 /  60  10  10  10
ELD  73  63  88  65 /  70  10  10   0
TYR  79  71  84  72 /  60  30  30  30
GGG  77  70  86  71 /  80  20  20  20
LFK  83  72  88  71 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...33